Odds Czar: Simple Biases In the Futures Market: 2008

Art's futures biases for Jan 14.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

Attachments

Art's futures biases for Jan 11.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

______________________________________________

According to the CzarCharts, the best bet for Tuesday would be the long side of the currencies, particularly the euro.
 

Attachments

Art's futures biases for Jan 16.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

______________________________________________

For Wednesday, the currencies continue to show an up-side bias, particularly the euro and Swiss franc. The indices are urging buys on the strength of the calendar indicators. Obviously, these are scary times, but I'm starting to regard the short side as the riskiest of positions. Any time now, Bernanke can come in with a surprise rate cut--possibly deeper than anyone anticipates. I'd hate to be on the wrong side of that inevitable up-side spike, however short-lived it may be.
That aside, we're seeing a steep after-hours drop off bad Intel news. If the market opens sharply lower on the regular opening, I would be even more inclined to follow the Czar signals.
 

Attachments

Art's futures biases for Jan 17.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

______________________________________________

For Thursday, the indices are in full-buy mode. The currencies also project higher.
 

Attachments

Art's futures biases for Jan 18.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

______________________________________________

I'd like to assure my readers, I'm not merely throwing predictions out there with no regard for consequences. I've been losing a substantial amount of money trying to get long the indices as the anvil keeps falling. This has not been a good start for 08.

I took off my positions about 66 percent of the way down and put them back out again on the close. I'm long the market on inter-day systems I follow, and as you can see, the CzarCharts continue to concur. I will remain on the long side for Friday and frankly, I'm not too rattled about it. The more we hemorrhage, the closer we get to the inevitable, (probably similarly extreme) rally. Keep in mind also that a surprise rate move continues to be a possibility and presents greater danger to the short rather than long side.

As always in these extreme environments, you will have to exercise caution commensurate with your risk tolerance and financial situation.
 

Attachments

Art's futures biases for Jan 18.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

______________________________________________

The CzarCharts are urging sells in the bond complex for Tuesday. The indices are mixed, but if the bond indicators are correct, that should portend a long-overdue upside move in the stock sector.
 

Attachments

Art's futures biases for Jan 18.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

______________________________________________

For Wednesday, the indices are flashing solid buy signals while the bond complex is equally adamant about the down-side. Obviously, extreme caution is urged in the current hyper-environment.
 

Attachments

Art's futures biases for Jan 24.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

______________________________________________

The bonds are presenting a clear sell signal for Thursday. The index signals are mixed, but a down bond market would probably suggest further buying in the stock sector.
 

Attachments

Art's futures biases for Jan 25.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

______________________________________________

There is not a definitive signal anywhere for Friday, although I would tend to believe the majority direction showing in the indices. Everything except the calendar indicators are pointing to the short side and we certainly have seen a quick recovery that may be verging on overbought. I would be especially inclined to sell off sharply higher openings.
 

Attachments

Art's futures biases for Jan 28.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

Attachments

You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top