Odds Czar: Simple Biases In the Futures Market: 2008

[windsurfer]

Hi Art,

Since you look at calendar biases, you might consider a "week of the month" bias. This is a quote from schaeffersresearch:

"For the bulls, expiration week has proven to be a tailwind. Our theory is that much of this positive price action relates to the expiration of equity and index options (particularly index options), which many investors use as portfolio insurance during uncertain times. Ahead of expiration, those selling the puts short stock futures to hedge their short put positions. However, as expiration approaches, portfolio insurance sellers unwind their short futures positions – behavior that becomes supportive of stocks. In fact, since January 2007, the average return on the SPX during expiration week is 0.45%, compared to average non-expiration week return of -0.11% during this period. In fact, 10 of the 16 expiration weeks since January 2007 have been positive".

I calculate that if you went long 1 SP for each expiration week of the last 16 months, you'd be up $40k.

 

[Art Collins]

windsurfer wrote in part (see last entry for full text)

Hi Art,

Since you look at calendar biases, you might consider a "week of the month" bias.

I calculate that if you went long 1 SP for each expiration week of the last 16 months, you'd be up $40k.

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very interesting. i'll test it and let you know what i come up with.
thanks!

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for May 12.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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We're seeing very negative readings in the currency complex for Tuesday, particularly the euro which has a -6 either-or rating. The bonds also project lower.

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for May 14.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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There was a significant yen drop on Tuesday so perhaps we'll see the euro take it's down-side turn on Wednesday. The CzarCharts still have a unanimously bearish either-or reading in that market. The bonds, on the other hand, are looking to reverse direction to the up-side.

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for May 15.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for May 14.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The solidly negative seasonal signals combined with the neutral-to-bearish other indicators suggest lower indices for Friday

 

[Art Collins]

For May 19--

for some reason, the site is not letting me send my CzarCharts through.
The entire bond complex offers the best bet for Monday on the short side.
Indices are mixed. see www.tigersharktrading.com or www.traderelite.com
thanks--sorry for the inconvenience

art

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for May 20.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for May 14.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Despite the fact that it's not unanimous, I'm going with the bearish majority index signals for Wednesday. I intend to be short the S&P. That particular market is a clear-cut signal. Besides, I'm regarding the late rally as smoke-and-mirrors. Sometimes there is a delay in the reality of a bad situation being absorbed. Obviously you should take my last sentiment for what it's worth, which is not much.

 

[himself]

Quote from Art Collins:

I'm going with the bearish majority index signals for Wednesday. [/B]

Where is the "Bearish majority index signals"?

I see
SP=0
NQ=2
RL=2