Odds are that gamblers misunderstand system

[bobcathy1]

Quote from Gordon Gekko:

it's not 50/50, though. actually, we don't know what it is.

it's just too chaotic to figure it out.

you could say there's a x% chance you'll die today. no way is it 50/50, though.

Actually, it is less than 50% chance of living.....but I did not want to scare you too much. Look at what I said, it is not a man made hazard like a bus or a plane. It is nature.

 

[Rearden Metal]

Quote from bobcathy1:

Actually, it is less than 50% chance of living.....but I did not want to scare you too much. Look at what I said, it is not a man made hazard like a bus or a plane. It is nature.

Sorry bobcathy, but you'd make a lousy actuary. The odds are obviously NOT 50/50 that a randomly selected person will live another 24 hours. That's absurd.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Quote from bobcathy1:

Actually, it is less than 50% chance of living.....but I did not want to scare you too much. Look at what I said, it is not a man made hazard like a bus or a plane. It is nature.

although it's possible, i highly doubt there's less than a 50% chance i will live tomorrow.

if there is a 50% chance of living each day, then there is only a .1% chance i will live for 10 more days. lol

 

[bobcathy1]

Quote from Rearden Metal:

Sorry bobcathy, but you'd make a lousy actuary. The odds are obviously NOT 50/50 that a randomly selected person will live another 24 hours. That's absurd.

Actuaries deal with probability. The probability of living is pretty good. On average people live to 65.

The chance remains at 50/50.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Quote from bobcathy1:

Actuaries deal with probability. The probability of living is pretty good. On average people live to 65.

The chance remains at 50/50.

if, as you say, the chance of living a day is 50%, therefore, the chance of living for 10 days is .1%; how is the average life expectancy 65 years??!

you mentioned 1 or 0 earlier. if i buy a lottery ticket, it can be a winner or a loser. would you say there is a 50% chance i win? no.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

in a few min i will edit this post and tell you, on average, what the % chance of dying each day is (has been), with an average life expectancy of 65 years. it will be way less than 50%.

 

[bobcathy1]

Quote from Gordon Gekko:

in a few min i will edit this post and tell you, on average, what the % chance of dying each day is (has been), with an average life expectancy of 65 years. it will be way less than 50%.

Just remember chance and probability are NOT the SAME thing.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

lol actually...someone else can do it. i was just gonna do it in excel real quick, but i hit the column limit.

 

[aphexcoil]

Quote from bobcathy1:

Actuaries deal with probability. The probability of living is pretty good. On average people live to 65.

The chance remains at 50/50.

Well I'm going to have to disagree because you are assuming that live/die is like a coin flip. There is a 50/50 chance of getting heads or tails when you flip a quarter but each day you wake up, there is a very small chance that you will die.

That's like saying there is a 50/50 chance that our house will catch fire because we assume that there are only two states a house can exist in -- not on fire and on fire.

You could even say there is a 50/50 chance that there is a god. You know there isn't and I know there is. With those odds, I'd go with god -- wouldn't you?

 

[Gordon Gekko]

http://www.livingto100.com/quiz.htm

not that i want to be alive as an old, frail, wrinkly fart, my life expectancy is 97.2.