OddBall S&P 500 System

Originally posted by mccmatthew
Did pretty darn well today.
More...

did well in trend day but give you whiplast in choppy day and on the average there are more choppy days than trend day.
 
I studied the system a bit and yes I do believe it works if you have plenty of money and you're not worried about long droughts.


As the prior posters have said you can get whipped like a step-child until you hit a series of trending days, but it does work.


I don't like the system for psychological reasons. If I personally go too long without getting a decent win I can get quite discouraged (you probably would too).

At one point in recent history the oddball system went nearly six months (with a healthy interim draw down) before it made a new high (that's an awful lot of time to second guess yourself). If I go a month without making money, I'm usually feeling pretty low.

There are better systems, but if you like it, give it a try.
 
Good points...That is exactly why even some of the better systems statistically are just untradeable, unless of course you are running a Commodity Fund or something similar and do not really care about the drawdowns...
 
I doubt many individual traders would trade it after seeing the equity curve. I doubt many fund managers or fund investors would like these kinds of returns ( the distribution I mean). Who trades this stuff?
 
I agree that few individual traders are going to accept that much open ended risk...But I am always amazed at how mediocre returns are for the majority of CTA's that probably use systems with similar parameters, time horizons and risk/profit objectives and parameters...
 
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