So right . . . yet so wrong, this is going to be a very very memorable game for a long time. I was expecting the classic financial rally, rate cut then sell-off . . . I was the expecting the 1-2-1 move after the announcement. Yet as the day progressed it was obvious that the financials will not rally into the meeting, and I started to get the feeling that there will be NO sell-off today. Did the market rally? Yes, not until I almost completely gave up the hope of longing and actually switched some of my positions to the short side.
On a side note, a good friend of mine, who was up gross but down 28K net (all commissions, firm capital), decided to hand in his resignation letter yesterday, as he received a job offer from another firm (worse rates but a fresh new start). For whatever the reason, the owner of the firm told him that he is not leaving, and today, his account was set to 0. Stunning, while it makes a lot of sense to keep a trader who has been basically consolidating, 28K is a LOT to forgive, and just another proof that this firm truly gives its traders every opportunity to succeed.
25000 shares on 5 of 16 shooting, +148 before commissions, -554 after, 2 bullets.
Pre-Market: Fed. meeting at 2:15, nothing else matters, actually some airline upgrades but I chose not to trade those.
9:30: DRG sell-off, bulleted AGN and ended up making some of the bullet cost as it totally reversed with the index. Took COF long on financial strength and got 20 cents. Took a pair of chemicals PX/APD and took 5-10 cents losses. Took BEN at 33.70 on what I thought would be financial rally and quickly get out for flat.
10:00: Took MWD, MER, GS, LM etc . . . kept on believing financials will go higher, while I pulled 50 cents off 1000 share's of GS, MWD, MER, LM all hurted me on 20 cents or so stop out's. In the end caught MWD and MER for a pop but too little too late. I was down $230, and I had to be happy about this kind of numbers given that the financials totally sold off instead of going up. On the other hand, I was getting the feeling that this rate cut will be different from others . . .
2:15: Ahhh, show time . . . Half point cut, futures went up, I took some CMA and was in the money by 20 cents quickly, took BJ, then futures came in, no problem, I was expecting it, and I was ready to buy more, took AGE at 35.12, futures came back, as expected, but could not hit a new high, and it faded. That was when my heart went heavy, as I quickly got out of CMA and BJ for 30 cents loss a piece, and put up a bullet on AGE and shorted away. Bad, bad idea, this is exactly how you get chopped to death, I was short 1500 AGE but fortuantely I was able to cover more than half of it for 2 pennies loss as it just went the other way as if the futures are going straight up. I lost 10 cents on the other half but it was ok. MMM hadn't sold off yet so I shorted it and ended up losing 25 cents.
2:58: Fully expecting a rally, took TYC at 45.17, GE at 36.90, IBM at 92.50, but I was down more than $1000 on the day, and there was fear in my heart, I had TYC a nickle above the bottom, I had GE 10 cents above the bottom, but IBM did a final "blow the stop" dump and triggered my stop at 92.29, and that was the stroke that broke my back. A little more confidence, I would have been ok, sticking and trusting my original idea, I would be fine, and I sold TYC and GE out flat. Needless to say the 3 of them ran up an average of more than 1 point each . . . and I got out of GE/IBM at 3:12, three minutes before the rally.
3:15: DRG rally, took some AGN at 66.57, eventually sold for an average price of 15 cents scalp. Took MMM at 96.90, CMA at 54.15, got half a point out of MMM as it printed as high as 97.70, but a big offer showed up and I pared some out and held the other half hoping for the offer to be smacked, it didn't. Got quarter move out of CMA. Too little, too late.
This is the kind of game that makes you spill blood, all along you knew you would be right, but as a trader you stick to stops (granted, I didn't stick to my stops on GE/TYC, mentally I was so beaten I sold them for flat and gave up). I want to have a good month so badly, yet I was so close . . . yet so far . . .
I understand, going into this business, that there will be failure after failure after failure before one finally makes it, and I still believe in my ability to excel, to succeed, that I have as much potential as anyone else in my firm. I have been stuck at 48K YTD for more than a month and half, that is disgusting.
I am way past the point of no return I don't even remember what it looked like, there is no turning back, either I make it trading, or accept the fate of an average joe. I have what it takes, but I must overcome myself to make this a respectable year.
