October Performance

wrbtrader said:
Enyoy the volatility while it last. It always (revert) back to the boring mean...you can easily see such in the historical charts of volatility and the indices.

I hope November is similar like too. Yet, on the flip side of the coin....many were not prepared for this type of volatility and got burnt or worst.

Psychologically, stress levels much higher in months like October...gotta be careful of your mind & body.

wrbtrader
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Exactly. It's good but also stressful. There's another dimension to this - regulation. If things are volatile and bad for a long time, regulators will come up with new insane rules which are almost always bad for traders. The market isn't as removed from bureaucrats and politicians as we'd want it to be.
 
In equities I agree when vol gets high it's easier. I had my best month ever too. I don't agree with being easier to read though, for me. What's easier is to just jump in. Anywhere. It's much more forgiving than slow upward grinds. You can sell almost anywhere into the move as the downside expands. In low vol up moves I have trouble buying highs as the subsequent retrace is much more likely to take me out. I can only trade a more mean reversion approach buying when price is dropping.

In high vol down moves, even if you hit the market at lows it just makes new lows really fast and unless you are really unlucky and sold the bottom, you will likely be fine and catch something.


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October was far from a normal month in the markets. September had 4 less trading days than October, so let's exclude the first four days of October to make a similar comparison (19 trading days).

In September the average range was 16,50 compared to 53,00 in October. If you add up the ranges, the sum was 1005,25 points for October while for September it was 313,00 points. If you look at the points offered, the number is 10 395,50 points for October compared to 1514,25 for September. This is for ES in RTH (09:30-16:00).

So, the difference in volatility is remarkable. :)
 
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Palindrome said:
In relation to my original post, volatility equals larger moves... but what I am wondering is, when you all look at your technicals, do they become much much clearer in times like this?

It was a very smooth month for me, I read the technicals very well, and wondering if this is simply the nauture of high vol months, smoother technicals and very obvious moves?

My win loss ratio was also off the charts relative to most months, again I think this has to do with what happens in the market at times like October and markets simply trade classical TA.
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I use tick charts and adjust for volatility so I don't see any difference between e.g. September and now, charts look the same, setups occur with more or less the same overall frequency, relative frequency and risk-adjusted EV. I'm trading NQ though which already had plenty of action even before October.
 
Don’t expect calm markets in October, historically a month for wild swings
PUBLISHED MON, SEP 30 20191:57 PM EDTUPDATED 5 HOURS AGO

Yun Li@YUNLI626





KEY POINTS
  • October has historically been the most volatile month as the VIX, an index that measures investors’ fear, tends to peak during the month, according to Macro Risk Advisors.
  • The market’s surprising resilience in September, which is typically the worst month for stocks, could also signal the rally is about to lose steam.
  • There isn’t a lack of catalysts to drive the market crazy from the upcoming trade talks to Trump’s impeachment saga.

_____________________________________________



I modify the news to suit the day traders :

Expect great fantastic markets in October, historically a month for very wide day range
by @maxinger

KEY POINTS
  • October has historically been the most volatile month as the VIX, an index that measures investors’ fear, tends to peak during the month, according to Macro Risk Advisors.
. So make hay while the Sun shines !!!!
________________________________
 
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