October = bear-market killer, or will carnage continue?

[GotherL]

Prolly headfake surprisingly strong headfake bounce any time now, to draw in bottomfish newbs, then epic selling. I'm buying inverses

Hopefully, that would be the best case scenario for me to salvage some of my badly timed option calls.

Well at least, the futures market didn't selloff immediately so we may just be heading in that direction.

 

[smallfil]

Looking for a huge rally to short the downtrend. Until the trend changes, bias is still down. My best positions are my short positions which should not come as a surprise.

 

[GotherL]

Spoke too soon...

Futes down big and doesn't even look close to scratching the surface.

 

[Sekiyo]

 

[Radiohead]

View attachment 296590

Where did this forward-looking chart come from? I could see something similar happening before down downtrend resumes. I was thinking it would hit 4000 earlier, though, and I would be surprised if January is as bullish as that chart predicts.

 

[ph1l]

Where did this forward-looking chart come from?

It looks like a projection of the pattern from early April to mid August with the daily price ranges increased and the cycle starting again from mid August.

 

[Sekiyo]

January - March resembles April - August
Maybe April - August will resemble the 3rd leg.

 

[GotherL]

Looks like the market shifted direction when everyone thought there was gonna be more blood to spill on Monday.

Major recovery or overextended bear rally.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Looks like the market shifted direction when everyone thought there was gonna be more blood to spill on Monday.

Major recovery or overextended bear rally.

Ka Ching Ka Ching

 

[Radiohead]

I tend to lean bear-ish even when I shouldn't but I'm seeing a number of TA approaches that indicate a retracement is in order and it has me hesitating to enter short positions. If I was forced to guess, SPY (may hit 350 first but then) spends a few weeks getting back to 400 where it hits resistance and the bear market resumes.

I've made plenty of guesses before that didn't hold up but this one from 10/1 was pretty good. The question is what the market does now and if it actually hits major resistance at 400. Seems like the market has some steam and there's a number of converging potential resistance prices including the 200MA, if it blows through them then that could mark a major change in the direction of the market (which could also be going from a bear market to a flat market).