October = bear-market killer, or will carnage continue?

October markets will:

  • Sell hard

    Votes: 5 22.7%

  • Major recovery

    Votes: 3 13.6%

  • Headfake bounces, selling continues

    Votes: 14 63.6%
  • Total voters
    22
I tend to lean bear-ish even when I shouldn't but I'm seeing a number of TA approaches that indicate a retracement is in order and it has me hesitating to enter short positions. If I was forced to guess, SPY (may hit 350 first but then) spends a few weeks getting back to 400 where it hits resistance and the bear market resumes.
 
First of all, I would disagree with the word carnage. I'm not on my trading computer, so can't say for certain, but I don't think we've had a day exceeding - 5% down on the S&P 500. While we're down on the year and there's been plenty of down days, this is a very controlled and calm bear so far. Not only that, but it's a bear that's been forewarned well in advance. No black swans here. Only a yawning bear.

I would think of seasonality as a supporting parameter. It worked well in September. However, I think that nothing have changed fundamentally as the FED stopped juicing the markets and that's why we're at these price levels. Unless they do or say something new following that meeting come Monday, I don't see why this is going to bottom out anytime soon.

I may easily be wrong about this except the first paragraph.
 
KCalhoun said:
Historically October bounces

What are your thoughts?
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Everyone who tries to guess/gamble on the future will be wrong all the time, inevitably, over the longer haul average.

It's hard to possibly imagine the market going any significant downer than it already has....but who knows. I could care less, I'm not a swing trader or investor holding positions and praying and staring at my screen like a paranoid cat imagining bits and pieces of my house melting away with each market gyration.
 
MacBookProHo said:
Everyone who tries to guess/gamble on the future will be wrong all the time, inevitably, over the longer haul average.
More...


But they will have LIVED as opposed to being DEAD at the starting gate. Living for even just one year is far beter than being dead for 80 years and then dig this, dying at 80. :D:D
 
Just a reminder ................... blood in the streets = BUY, Euphoria = SELL :D:D:D:D

Warren Buffet's Law, buy buy buy when there is blood in the streets is in colossal violation from here on out by all BEARS including ME. I never thought such a day would come but it sure as heck has.

Just going down to the corona virus low of March 2020, the BEAR market will have produced sooooo much high octane red blood corpuscles in the streets ...................... what the heck will happen to Warren's Law????

Such deep thought, I have headache already :D:D
 
Hahahahahahaha, WT is terrified to vote in the #2 category (major recovery). They learned their lesson in the last BEAR rally from June 16 - Aug 17. They swore never to be cott thusly ever again and be ridiculed by your truly. So now they might all go to #3 to vote but then the market will stage a massive bear rally or new bull run and they will put out a contract on yours truly for such subterfuge


:D:D:D
 
And yet after a few green days the talking head bullish idiots will declare a bottom is in, buybuybuy.

Right before the selloff resumes stronger than ever. So fkn predictable.

Just fade the dumb money. Example I loaded up in inverses end of day during the bs boe rally day bc it was a great entry; sold back later in week for a win.
 
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