Oct S&P Open interest "bubble" @1525

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piezoe

Since i am waiting for my next trade (yes, i admit time plays a major role in my trading) i would like to comment that there are as of now 113K put contracts for the Oct S&P @ 1525 and another lessor spike of >59K @ 1500. I would think that the market would move toward 1525 by expiration Friday. Depending on open interest to much to point the way is always a little dangerous, but nevertheless we seem to be within easy striking distance of 1525 at this point. I'd be pretty surprised if we went to 1500 by Friday (though it is certainly not inconceivable in todays market), but not at all surprised if we settled near 1525. Of course there are a number of spikes in OI further down but these are obviously related to hedging, achieving delta neutral positions, and more complex option plays. Caveat emptor .
 
Quote from piezoe:

starting to look more like 1500 guys.:)
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I couldn't be more distraught. I puked a bunch of Oct 1525's on Monday and replaced them with Nov 1530p-1470p verticals.
 
That OI in the 1525 line is not really that great. Had you been looking at the 1525 line for the last 6 months you'd have seen in that particular line the OI has been that substantial each expiration.
 
Quote from xflat2186:

That OI in the 1525 line is not really that great. Had you been looking at the 1525 line for the last 6 months you'd have seen in that particular line the OI has been that substantial each expiration.
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So, are you saying it's meaningless? That it will have nothing to do with where we settle come Friday morning.
 
So we settle at 1531, making all those long puts at 1525 worthless. I noticed a lot of put contracts coming in above 1525 on Thursday. Probably a bit of last minute option position adjustment. My 1545-1490 vertical did very nicely, thank you. Hey, Xflat, you still thinking OI has no meaning? I love verticals, don't you?:D
 
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