Quote from William Rennick:
BALDERDASH!!
You have an appropriate handle, as you are stating what at this point in time is obvious. You have not gone out on any limb.
John McCain showed class and was very presidential last night. I like Obama and he wii be president someday, but not this round. These elections under normal conditions are decided with thin margins. Throw in the race factor and a maverick quasi Democrat-like Republican and the surprise landside will be the other way. At least 6% of the Dems are racist enough not to vote for Obama, I think that study is way off and the number will be more like 20%. Obama is peaking early, the Dem's are always ahead in early October , only to have a very close result come election night. Obama is up 5% right now,Kerry and Gore had bigger leads at this point.
Jimmy Carter was up 30% in early October.
The only poll that really counts is the Market, ever since Obama took the lead in the polls the Market has had one of the biggest sustained selloffs in history. So if you want an out on a limb prediction, here it is, "McCAIN WILL WIN WITH 51% PLUS, A LANDSLIDE FINISH
Dick Rennick Morris out
Not True about about Kerry having a bigger lead over Bush
I agree that some racist wont vote for Obama,but the polls don't count many younger Obama voters that only have cell phones with unlimited plans like myself
All credit to james_bond_3rd for the Bush /kerry Poll numbers
"Oh how does the memory fail us? Of 76 polls in the last two months of 2004 election, Bush led in 64 polls, Kerry led in 5 polls, and 7 were ties. Of 18 polls in the last week before 2004 election, Bush led in 14 polls, Kerry led in 3 polls, and one was a tie. Here is a list of polls up to two months prior to 2004 election:
Survey BUSH KERRY Margin Includes
Running-
End Date % % Bush Kerry mates?
GWU Battleground 11/1 50 46 Bush 4 N
TIPP 11/1 47 44 Bush 3 N
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/31 46 48 Kerry 2 N
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/31 49 47 Bush 2 Y
TIPP 10/31 45 44 Bush 1 N
GWU Battleground 10/31 49 45 Bush 4 N
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/30 46 47 Kerry 1 N
American Research Group 10/30 48 49 Kerry 1 Y
TIPP 10/30 47 42 Bush 5 N
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/29 47 45 Bush 2 N
Newsweek 10/29 51 45 Bush 6 Y
TIPP 10/29 45 44 Bush 1 N
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/28 50 45 Bush 5 N
GWU Battleground 10/28 50 45 Bush 5 N
TIPP 10/28 45 45 Tie N
TIPP 10/27 46 43 Bush 3 N
TIPP 10/26 47 43 Bush 4 N
TIPP 10/25 47 42 Bush 5 N
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/24 52 46 Bush 6 Y
Los Angeles Times 10/24 49 48 Bush 1 Y
TIPP 10/24 48 41 Bush 7 N
TIPP 10/23 47 43 Bush 4 N
Newsweek 10/22 48 47 Bush 1 Y
TIPP 10/22 47 44 Bush 3 N
GWU Battleground 10/21 49 45 Bush 4 N
TIPP 10/21 45 45 Tie N
TIPP 10/20 45 44 Bush 1 N
TIPP 10/19 45 45 Tie N
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/18 48 43 Bush 5 N
TIPP 10/18 45 45 Tie N
CBS/NYT 10/17 47 46 Bush 1 Y
TIPP 10/17 47 44 Bush 3 N
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/16 52 44 Bush 8 Y
TIPP 10/16 47 43 Bush 4 N
Newsweek 10/15 50 45 Bush 5 Y
Time 10/15 48 48 Tie Y
TIPP 10/15 47 44 Bush 3 N
TIPP 10/14 47 43 Bush 4 N
GWU Battleground 10/14 49 46 Bush 3 N
TIPP 10/13 46 42 Bush 4 N
Scripps Center, Ohio U. 10/13 48 47 Bush 1 N
TIPP 10/12 46 43 Bush 3 N
CBS 10/11 47 46 Bush 1 Y
ICR 10/11 49 46 Bush 3 Y
TIPP 10/11 45 44 Bush 1 N
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/10 48 50 Kerry 2 Y
Time 10/7 47 46 Bush 1 Y
GWU Battleground 10/7 49 46 Bush 3 N
ICR 10/5 51 46 Bush 5 Y
American Research Group 10/4 46 47 Kerry 1 N
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/4 48 45 Bush 3 N
CBS/NYT 10/3 48 47 Bush 1 Y
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/3 49 49 Tie Y
Zogby 10/3 46 45 Bush 1 Y
GWU Battleground 9/30 52 44 Bush 8 N
Los Angeles Times 9/28 51 46 Bush 5 Y
ICR 9/28 51 43 Bush 8 Y
IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/27 45 46 Kerry 1 N
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/26 52 44 Bush 8 Y
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 9/22 45 43 Bush 2 N
Democracy Corps (D) 9/21 49 49 Tie N
Zogby 9/19 47 44 Bush 3 Y
IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/18 46 43 Bush 3 N
GWU Battleground 9/16 49 45 Bush 4 N
Gallup 9/15 55 42 Bush 13 Y
Democracy Corps (D) 9/14 49 48 Bush 1 N
New Democrat Network (D) 9/12 49 45 Bush 4
ICR 9/12 52 44 Bush 8 Y
IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/12 47 47 Tie N
Zogby 9/9 47 45 Bush 2 Y
Time 9/9 54 42 Bush 12 Y
Democracy Corps (D) 9/9 50 47 Bush 3 N
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 9/8 47 45 Bush 2 N
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/5 52 45 Bush 7 Y
ICR 9/5 48 47 Bush 1 Y
Time 9/2 53 43 Bush 10 Y
Zogby 9/2 46 44 Bush 2 Y
American Research Group 9/1 48 47 Bush 1 N"