Observations (an example)

[fortydraws]

Although defining the range can be problematic, which is where "judging the market by its own action" becomes important. Today, for example, price clearly chose 86 to be the upper limit, and that fail at 1050 would have been a good entry. However, the trader would have to be willing to place a stop, mental or otherwise, at the danger point, which in this case would be no lower than 87. This would be unacceptable to nearly everyone.

But, whether or not one takes the trade, AMT has done what it's supposed to do. What one does about yet another test of 76 is another subject.

I didn't trade it. I've always been good for standing down if I don't feel I'm getting it - and at least this morning so far, I haven't been "getting it." I was actually going to post that a competent scalper would likely have been able to do quite well today between 86 and 76 before I saw your post.

 

[dbphoenix]

The activity is peculiar, almost as if price is trying to create a new range bottom at 76.

But I'm in no hurry. My target is considerably higher.

 

[eminiman414]

Question and I know there's no real answer to this but is it wise to play a situation like 86 (in the long run of a trading career) with those other high points above? I don't have stats on this or anything but my gut says there are far better plays and the odds of getting stopped out with other levels overhead is more likely ( again in the long run). I know the answer will be the behavior is what it is so if you want to play it or have to play it based on your strategy so be it but is it wise? Just asking since you both have a great understanding on how price behaves at price levels.

 

[dbphoenix]

For me, I pegged the upper limit of this range at 88, but price hasn't paid zip attention to it, focusing instead on 86. Okay, fine. As for 76, the jury's still out on that. But we're talking about 10pts here, so it isn't as if our retirement depends on this range. And these don't last for more than three or four days anyway, so I'm content to just wait. Traders need this for some reason, so . . .

 

[Ged]

I'm in no hurry. My target is considerably higher.

db, do you use a P&F chart to calculate your target(s)?
Ged

 

[fortydraws]

For me, the trade will be 90 to 65, or 65 to 90, or 65 to say 45, or 90 to infinity and beyond. Any entry depending upon a higher low, lower high, or retrace after BO. If I miss, I miss.

 

[dbphoenix]

db, do you use a P&F chart to calculate your target(s)?

No. Just the trend channel and the range. The upper limit of the trend channel is around 4450 for now.

 

[Gringo]

db, do you use a P&F chart to calculate your target(s)?
Ged

Db doesn't use P&F. It was mainly to summarize the info in the past when computer wasn't available. Now we can stretch the chart and data any way we want.

Gringo (Db's PR manager)

 

[fortydraws]

Of course, there is also this ... so I reserve the right to enter sooner and get whipsawed as necessary

 

[Ged]

No. Just the trend channel and the range. The upper limit of the trend channel is around 4450 for now.

Thank you db. I've read so much of your work, but I couldn't recall just now if you had mentioned using P&F charts.
Ged