Objective Elliott Wave............
- Thread starter gharghur2
- Start date
Good question!
I've considered this and arrived at two conclusions:
1) If the selling continues in the NAZ before we get an uptrend price reversal, to the point where the current momentum wave drops below the previous one, then it could be a 4th wave...and the next price reversal could end the bull market.
2) If upon an uptrend price reversal we only attain a marginal new highs, or a failure to attain new highs, it could also end the bull market.
In both cases we probably would have a diagonal triangle 5th wave in place. And, we all know what that means. The volatility of 2000 - 2002 would return. I'm not expecting either to occur, thus far!
Now for some objective EW.
The NAZ appears to have completed it's first impulse 5 waves up and corrected, while the SPX/DOW have been base building. See chart:
To confirm an uptrend has started in the SPX/DOW we need a close above 1227 and 10,536 respectively. All other technicals are in alignment.
The NAZ appears to have completed it's first impulse 5 waves up and corrected, while the SPX/DOW have been base building. See chart:
To confirm an uptrend has started in the SPX/DOW we need a close above 1227 and 10,536 respectively. All other technicals are in alignment.
Murray Ruggiero
Sponsor
Question could this be a A-B-C ,X pattern ? and not a start of a new impulse. I know it will not be that if we confirm the uptrend.
Of course Murray, anything is possible while building a base.
I see five waves up in all three major indices:
NAZ from 10/13
SPX from 10/20
DOW from 10/21
All have corrected the first thrust up thurs/fri, and rallied friday off the lows. The NAZ appears lagging and the SPX/DOW are getting overbought short term. If the SPX/DOW push yet higher monday, and the NAZ doesn't catch up, it may force it retest it's recent lows when they pull back. I would imagine, the SPX/DOW are now in wave 1 of the next 5 wave sequence.
Looking further out, I would be disappointed if the trend reversal targets were not met during this five wave advance. And so will the market: these are psychological levels, whether they are recognized as such, or not.
Here's a longer term chart: looks too nice to think it would fail.
I see five waves up in all three major indices:
NAZ from 10/13
SPX from 10/20
DOW from 10/21
All have corrected the first thrust up thurs/fri, and rallied friday off the lows. The NAZ appears lagging and the SPX/DOW are getting overbought short term. If the SPX/DOW push yet higher monday, and the NAZ doesn't catch up, it may force it retest it's recent lows when they pull back. I would imagine, the SPX/DOW are now in wave 1 of the next 5 wave sequence.
Looking further out, I would be disappointed if the trend reversal targets were not met during this five wave advance. And so will the market: these are psychological levels, whether they are recognized as such, or not.
Here's a longer term chart: looks too nice to think it would fail.
Hi Tony,
In the mmi.jpg, it is showing RSI(14) instead of Rate of Change(40). Will any momentum indicator do the job?
Recently, I am taking a second crack at this Elliott waves stuff in order to stay longer with my intraday ES trades. I remember counting 4 waves intraday for the first time a couple of days ago and sure enough the 5th waves follows. Why would you say the Elliott waves are not for intraday trading? Thanks.
Regarding your comments about "subjective labeling" on the C wave a while ago... What do you mean by that? I too thought the C wave should be always 5 waves but you said C waves could be other combinations as long as the last set of subdivision displaying 5 waves (impulsive)? Can you expand a little on this?
Just curious. What type of stuff does Eli Tullis use and what contributes to his success? Thanks again.
Regards,
William
Hi William,
In answer to your questions:
1. Only the 40-day ROC will work. Others may work time to time, but the 40-day has been consistent for over 20 years. I overwrote the 14-day on the chart with the 40-day to provide the illustration.
2. Generally, in normal markets, simple 5 wave structures and 3 wave declines can be seen easily. However, when markets start moving fast, the short term waves are mucher harder to count: which wave is part of what and so forth. Even a daily bar chart gets difficult at times, let alone a 15-minute chart. The last two advances in the SPX/DOW are easily seen as 5 waves on a 15 minute chart. Chart below:
3. C waves: On a daily bar chart, they may not appear as a 5 wave structure, but an ABC. In my experience, it's quite normal! However, when looking at a 15 minute chart, of the same C wave, one may be able to discern a 5 wave structure. I key all of my counts on daily and monthly charts, and use the 15 minute just to see what's going on during the day.
4. Eli is one of the greatest futures traders of all time. He started in the Cotton market trading fundamentals: he knew the industry cold. In the 1970's, I believe, when for a short period of time they had price fixing, he actually cornered the entire US cotton crop. And, uncle Sam had to buy it from him
Because of Eli, many futures rules were changed. Generally, in other markets, he used the typical momentum oscillators and was fascinated with EW too.Best to your trading!
tony
We need the following closes to confirm an 'objective EW' trend reversal, end of correction:
SPX 1227
NAZ 2156
DOW 10,536
Everything else looks in order: MMI rising, 5 wave patterns during the advance, an acceleration upside gap this past monday, and a myriad of technicals indicating that an intermediate term bottom is in. For more info and charts, charts, charts:
http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
good trading!
SPX 1227
NAZ 2156
DOW 10,536
Everything else looks in order: MMI rising, 5 wave patterns during the advance, an acceleration upside gap this past monday, and a myriad of technicals indicating that an intermediate term bottom is in. For more info and charts, charts, charts:
http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
good trading!