Objective Elliott Wave............

"reading" and "riding" the waves ... makes you dream ...
Quote from gharghur2:

Hi!

Just reading the waves :)
Wouldn't expect much bullishness at the beginning of moves.
good luck!
More...
 
BREAKOUT!

Several weeks or so from now the major indices should be encountering the next set of long term EW pivots: SPX 1383, NDX 1865, NAZ 2467 and DOW 11,750. I have posted the short term EW pivots for each index on the 60 minute charts, and the long term EW pivots on the weekly charts. The daily charts display the next EW pivot target only, and all charts are updated with the current EW count. New closing highs in the NAZ yesterday, the DOW today and a near miss in the SPX today has me bullish: short term (after a possible small pullback first), intermediate term and long term. Hoping to witness a trending advance for a change.

GL
 
This is really bullish... <font class="quo">
  • Quote from gharghur2:

    BREAKOUT!

    Several weeks or so from now the major indices should be encountering the next set of long term EW pivots: SPX 1383, NDX 1865, NAZ 2467 and DOW 11,750. I have posted the short term EW pivots for each index on the 60 minute charts, and the long term EW pivots on the weekly charts. The daily charts display the next EW pivot target only, and all charts are updated with the current EW count. New closing highs in the NAZ yesterday, the DOW today and a near miss in the SPX today has me bullish: short term (after a possible small pullback first), intermediate term and long term. Hoping to witness a trending advance for a change.

    GL
</font>
 
Hi!

Those are the next long-term EW pivots. These EW pivot points have worked perfectly: especially in the SPX.

They will probably provide the top of this intermediate term uptrend, which started in Jan (DOW), Feb (SPX) and Mar (NDX/NAZ).

After being clustered closely together for the past year, the pivots are getting wider and wider apart now, as we move higher in this bull market.

Should be a fun ride, AND capitulation time for many bears :)
 
Relativity ...

Until I started to read your posts I never thought about myself as being a bear, but compared to you ...

I'll keep an eye on your blog. :)

PS: I'd be curious to read your opinions from 2001 - 2002. :)
Quote from gharghur2:

Hi!

Those are the next long-term EW pivots. These EW pivot points have worked perfectly: especially in the SPX.

They will probably provide the top of this intermediate term uptrend, which started in Jan (DOW), Feb (SPX) and Mar (NDX/NAZ).

After being clustered closely together for the past year, the pivots are getting wider and wider apart now, as we move higher in this bull market.

Should be a fun ride, AND capitulation time for many bears :)
More...
 
Quote from cnms2:

Relativity ...

Until I started to read your posts I never thought about myself as being a bear, but compared to you ...

I'll keep an eye on your blog. :)

PS: I'd be curious to read your opinions from 2001 - 2002. :)
More...

Hi!

Unfortunately I don't have anything publicly posted that far back. I did discuss the low with Jon Markman: Contributing editor for MSN Money in September - December 2002 though. I don't know if he retained any of our correspondences. I didn't ...

During 2000 - 2002 I was surprised, as most, in the strength of the DOW (safe haven) versus the NAZ. That alone held the SPX to a relatively moderate bear market. In the end it made sense.

Historically, I tend to be conservative (most times) in bull markets and in bear markets ... if you can believe that. Bull markets are far more predictable than bear markets in EW terms. Thus, those target projections, imo, are conservative. We still have several intermediate term waves to complete before I take out the bear skin rug.
 
Quote from gharghur2:

We still have several intermediate term waves to complete before I take out the bear skin rug.
More...

gharghur2,

The Russell 2000 has been on a tear for over three years. Do you have any predition (even a rough one) when it might turn bearish? Within the next year?

Richard
 
Quote from rickty:

gharghur2,

The Russell 2000 has been on a tear for over three years. Do you have any predition (even a rough one) when it might turn bearish? Within the next year?

Richard
More...

Hi Richard,

It sure has been. Attaching my chart of the R2K.

It still has Intermediate wave iii (green upper right) to complete.
And then Intermediate waves iv (down) and v (up), just to complete Major wave 3. Then Major wave 4 (down) and finally Major wave 5 (up) to complete the bull market.

In other words, I do not see any reason for it stop at this juncture. Now, keep in mind third waves are historically the strongest. And this is a third of a third. Upon completion of this uptrend it should slow down but keep rising in its bull market nonetheless.

good trading!

tony
 

Attachments

All momentum indicators are oversold short term, nearly to the level they were at the recent wave 2 low this past monday. The hourly indicators are oversold on the RSI and have reset on the MACD. It appears it is time for the rally to resume. The short term EW pivots held up well. I mentioned thursday night; "These EW pivots should now come into play: SPX 1300 and 1316, NDX 1717 and 1750, and the NAZ 2333 and 2375." During fridays pullback the NAZ touched 2333 exactly, the SPX low was only 1307, but the NDX displayed additional weakness touching the next lower pivot at 1705. It took this additional selling, in the NDX, to reset the momentum indicators as it reached the upper limit of the gap established at the onset of this recent rally. I'm labeling the recent rally as a wave 1 and the pullback as a wave 2. It appears we should rally from here.

For all charts:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
 
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