Objective Elliott Wave............

Hi Nitro,

This site was down for a while.

I hear what you're saying. There are lots of negatives, currently.
I'm even bearish on Bonds.

I took a look at the Dow components:
20 above 200dma; 16 uptrends, 10 consolidating, 4 downtrends
the leaders: BA, CAT, HPQ, MCD, MO, UTX
breaking out: AXP, C, HON, JPM, MSFT, PG, T
the losers: GM, INTC, JNJ, DD

It doesn't look that bad, and the consolidating issues have lengthy bases. Plus, the financials are breaking out, always a good sign. Just reporting what I see :)

thx
 
I think your analysis is spot on from a technical perspective. I just think this will be one of those times where you have to look back and readjust your analysis, not because it is currently wrong by what the charts are telling you now, but because the market will show your analysis to need amending in the future frame, in hindsite.

IMO the fundamentals and the technicals are diverging and I know how that war turns out.

nitro
Quote from gharghur2:

Hi Nitro,

This site was down for a while.

I hear what you're saying. There are lots of negatives, currently.
I'm even bearish on Bonds.

I took a look at the Dow components:
20 above 200dma; 16 uptrends, 10 consolidating, 4 downtrends
the leaders: BA, CAT, HPQ, MCD, MO, UTX
breaking out: AXP, C, HON, JPM, MSFT, PG, T
the losers: GM, INTC, JNJ, DD

It doesn't look that bad, and the consolidating issues have lengthy bases. Plus, the financials are breaking out, always a good sign. Just reporting what I see :)

thx
More...
 
Hi!

I for one can only anticipate the future based upon the present, in EW terms, and historical references where applicable. I'm currently using a less bullish primary count, but this new one seems appealing from many aspects.
Of course the market will let us know :)
 
Early next week the market should rally to complete this initial five wave sequence of the new uptrend, or wave 1. I'm expecting that all four indices will run into resistance at their respective EW pivots: DOW 11350, SPX 1316, NAZ 2333 and NDX 1709. After this takes place a 2-3 day correction should unfold, probably coinciding with a new low in bonds and a bottoming in the SOX index, to complete wave 2. Then everything should be setup to move in unison to the upside in wave 3. The MMI, in all four indices, has risen strongly during this past week especially in the DOW, as it has confirmed a new rising momentum cycle.

http://spaces.msn.com/caldaroEW/
 

Attachments

So the early next week's rally should be pretty modest, less than 1% ...

Do you have any price / time frame targets for the following wave 3 completion?

Thanks
Quote from gharghur2:

Early next week the market should rally to complete this initial five wave sequence of the new uptrend, or wave 1. I'm expecting that all four indices will run into resistance at their respective EW pivots: DOW 11350, SPX 1316, NAZ 2333 and NDX 1709. After this takes place a 2-3 day correction should unfold, probably coinciding with a new low in bonds and a bottoming in the SOX index, to complete wave 2. Then everything should be setup to move in unison to the upside in wave 3. The MMI, in all four indices, has risen strongly during this past week especially in the DOW, as it has confirmed a new rising momentum cycle.

http://spaces.msn.com/caldaroEW/
More...
 
Hi!

Not yet, just taking this advance one step at a time.
Let's see if these targets are met first.
If so, then only need to step it up a notch next.

tony
 
according to my calculations if the sp does not rally by tuesday it shall start a fall for a few months. i see 5-waves up now from october lo. plus gann cycles . 72 months from hi on 3-24-00and some other small cycles. vernal equinox 3-20.etc....

bgp
 
Vernal equinox. Isn't that spring?

The five waves up from October ended in early January in SPX the February low started a new uptrend.
The DOW had the same rally, but bottomed in January and has been in an uptrend since.
The NDX just bottomed a week ago friday.
 
Quote from bgp:

according to my calculations if the sp does not rally by tuesday it shall start a fall for a few months. i see 5-waves up now from october lo. plus gann cycles . 72 months from hi on 3-24-00and some other small cycles. vernal equinox 3-20.etc....

bgp
More...

What kind of rally are you expecting by Tuesday? If it starts to fall for a "few months", what targets do you have in mind?
 
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