Objective Elliott Wave............

Quote from optionpro007:

Greetings:

I have not been following this thread, but thought it would be a good place to ask this question.

If wave 1 and 3 have the same length. Is it expected for wave 5 to have the same length or there is no rule to follow on this.

Is it different, if it is in currencies, stocks or commodities ?

Anybody ?

Thanks !!
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Interesting question. The only rule pertaining to this is that wave 3 can not be the shortest wave. Thus, if wave three is equal to wave one, then wave five can be any length.

Currencies, bonds and commodities often beat to a different drum. Most commodites move in large ABC patterns, with smaller waves subdividing into fives. I've rarely seen a true five wave bull market in any of these. Only stocks.
 
Quote from gharghur2:

Interesting question. The only rule pertaining to this is that wave 3 can not be the shortest wave. Thus, if wave three is equal to wave one, then wave five can be any length.

Currencies, bonds and commodities often beat to a different drum. Most commodites move in large ABC patterns, with smaller waves subdividing into fives. I've rarely seen a true five wave bull market in any of these. Only stocks.
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Thanks !!!!
 
Our bull market continues to unfold as expected. We maintain the view that we are in intermediate wave iii: of major wave 3: of primary wave 5 of this cyclical bull market. What this means in general terms: after this this intermediate term advance concludes and is corrected, there will be two more intermediate term advances before the bull market concludes in possibly 2007. We're expecting the NAZ to reach 3300, about 50% higher than where it is now, before the bull market ends. To see how we arrived at this price level please review: "Cycle wave 1932 -1937 and Cycle wave 2002 - 2007" posted on Sept 21st. Also, in our very first post on this website on Aug 25th, please review: "The Current Count EW terms", unfolding as labeled since the bull market began in Oct 2002. Our Objective EW is truly a most remarkable technical tool.

Included a chart of the SPX for you ES traders...

http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
 

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Thanks gharghur2 for teaching us EW. Your contributions are very much appreciated.

I have a question. In the count of waves starting at the lows of mid Oct, chart posted previous page 12-08-05 12:41 PM the reason you count wave i not as 3, and 3 not as 5 is because of your MMI indicator correct ?

Without this indicator or another to confirm similar waves, it would be easy to consider your 3 a 5 and so this move would be over and a stronger correction would follow.

Is this correct ?

Thanks !! and great thread !


Quote from gharghur2:

It appears the NDX has failed to successfully penetrate the 1710 EW pivot point (see above post). It rallied through it and immediately retreated. This has placed pressure on the short term uptrend as noted in my blog.

Several intermediate uptrend lines have now been broken, which suggests we are now in a short term correction. We can count three waves up from the mid/late October lows, and we're probably in wave 4. Still to come, another significant advance in wave 5.

Posting a chart on the NAZ. Details as usual:

http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
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Hi!

Yes, you are correct.

My MMI is still rising right into the close on friday. This indicates that this is wave 3 of the five wave intermediate term uptrend, or if it continues to rise, the entire advance from the mid Oct lows is wave ONE. I hope it continues to rise :)

The structure of the advance from late Oct was not very good: wave three was shorter than wave one, and wave five truncated altogether. This could mean a correction all the way back to the second wave of this advance i.e. EW pivots SPX 1226 and NDX 1639. Pivots SPX 1249 and NDX 1671 need to hold on the next decline. They were almost tested on thursday.

Thanks for the kind words
Tony
 
Time for an update:

If you recall, in January the NAZ/NDX topped and started heading lower, taking the rest of the market with it. On the first wave down, the SPX/DOW held and turned up making new highs while the NAZ/NDX went sideways. Then, they all turned down together completing the intermediate term correction for all four indices into the April lows. The reason this occurred, is KEY to what is occurring right now! In January, when the NAZ/NDX had turned lower, the SPX specifically, had not completed its five wave advance. It had only completed three waves up into January, thus it needed another rally to complete the impulse wave.

Keeping this in mind. My MMI (market momentum indicator), which is used to measure internal market strength during an advance, and to help count the waves as they unfold, is still rising. It made new highs in the SPX/DOW this week, while dipping a bit in the NAZ/NDX. What this means basically, is that we have not seen the major thrust of this intermediate term advance as of yet. So the third wave is still ahead of us. That being said, and the fact that the SPX/DOW are acting like they need to finish five waves up by going counter to the short term trend of the NAZ/NDX, can only mean one thing: The NAZ/NDX has just completed only wave 1, and the SPX/DOW are now completing wave 1 of the 5 wave intermediate term advance: with waves 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 to go, before this intermediate term uptrend ends. This has very bullish implications intermediate term. We have mentioned this possiblity for the past couple of weeks: the recent highs in the NAZ/NDX only being wave 1. We also mentioned that the NAZ/NDX was overbought intermediate term and needed to correct or go sideways to relieve some of that condition: it is doing just that.

http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
 
The TRANsports made new highs yesterday and we missed it. Sorry, because it's really important. Now, I don't usually elaborate on the TRAN because it's not one of the four main indices, but we have reported its importance in past posts. See: "Dow Theory, TRANsports lead economies 11/13/05."
It appears the TRAN made a low on Dec 13th, the same day the DOW made a low. Since then, the TRAN has rallied five waves, corrected, and now exploded upward on wednesday: see TRAN122105. What this means, is that the TRAN has completed wave 2 and already started wave 3, see: TRANdaily chart. Also of note, the DOW has been holding up pretty well considering all the selling in the NDX/SPX futures. And, the cash NAZ market has been outperforming the futures NDX market. In other words there is cash buying in this market! So it shouldn't be too long before the entire market starts wave 3.
 

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Quote from gharghur2:

And, the cash NAZ market has been outperforming the futures NDX market. In other words there is cash buying in this market! So it shouldn't be too long before the entire market starts wave 3.
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Could you explain to us how you arrived at this conclusion ?
 
The Transportation index is not driven by futures contracts. And, made all time new highs yesterday.

The NAZ, also a cash index, gapped up on 11/17 as did the NDX. They both topped with similar percentage advances (3.8%, 3.6%) on 12/6.

Since then, the futures driven NDX, has already declined to the top of 11/17 gap at 1658.

Yet, the NAZ has not: it's low is 2214, nearly 1% above the top of its 11/17 gap 2195.

I would think if cash selling precipitated the futures it would be the other way around.

It is also interesting that the day the Q's, SPY and DIA went ex-dividend, the selling accelerated. That was friday.

Just my observations.
 
What started off as a negative week ended relatively unchanged. And, the main indices did reach an extreme oversold condition, similar to the late October low, and rallied higher. The TRANsports took off making all time new highs in what looks to be the resumption of the intermediate term advance: waves 1 and 2 completed and now in wave 3. We've updated all the charts including the 'bullmkt' charts for the NAZ/NDX/SPX/DOW/SOX/TRAN.
Our MMI has eased off a bit from the highs which is normal, and suggests a very positive shortened week ahead. If we are indeed in wave 3 of this intermediate uptrend it should be pretty explosive: a third of a third of a third. I've also noticed that Bonds continue to trend higher, and the bull market in crude and gold looks done. All very positive for stocks! Refer to the 'bullmkt' charts for each index to see the counts we have maintained throughtout the bull market of 2002. We're still very bullish!

Best Wishes to all of YOU and your families in this Holiday Season. Let's aim to make 2006 a great year we will always remember. PEACE!
 
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