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Objective Elliott Wave............
- Thread starter gharghur2
- Start date
the Dow Theory ...
An expanding economy, whether a service one or not, still needs the transportation industry for raw materials, dry goods, produce, etc. And as such, it would make sense that the Transports would be the first indicator of economic expansion/contraction: goods tend to flow with the rise/fall of demand.
Historically, the Transports has also been a good leading indicator for the EW as well. I've posted a chart of the past 15 years of the TRAN verses the DOW, and highlighted two significant areas: 1989 - 1990, and 1999 - 2000. Both, as you recall, were important tops in the stock market...
Move ahead now to 1999. In May of that year the TRANsports topped and turned down, the DOW corrected again. When the DOW resumed it's advance with the rest of the market into a Jan 2000 top, the TRANsports were nowhere to be found. Another perfect divergence, and warning that the DOW was assuredly in it's last advance. The NAZ/SPX topped in Mar of 2000, and we all know what happened thereafter...For details
http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
An expanding economy, whether a service one or not, still needs the transportation industry for raw materials, dry goods, produce, etc. And as such, it would make sense that the Transports would be the first indicator of economic expansion/contraction: goods tend to flow with the rise/fall of demand.
Historically, the Transports has also been a good leading indicator for the EW as well. I've posted a chart of the past 15 years of the TRAN verses the DOW, and highlighted two significant areas: 1989 - 1990, and 1999 - 2000. Both, as you recall, were important tops in the stock market...
Move ahead now to 1999. In May of that year the TRANsports topped and turned down, the DOW corrected again. When the DOW resumed it's advance with the rest of the market into a Jan 2000 top, the TRANsports were nowhere to be found. Another perfect divergence, and warning that the DOW was assuredly in it's last advance. The NAZ/SPX topped in Mar of 2000, and we all know what happened thereafter...For details
http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
Attachments
Shall we call this capitulation weekend? All four major indices closed above their July/Aug tops on friday, in fact, they gapped above them and stayed there. We now have the NDX/NAZ/SPX all in uncharted, bull market territory. The one laggard is the DOW: it reached an EOD bull market high in March 2005, at 10,940.55, so it has a bit more work to do. Nonetheless, I am sure the perennial bears will state that the market has only returned to where it was three months ago, and thus it has accomplished nothing. However, those open minded investors will now have to concede that this has been a bull market all along.
It is unfortunate that the prophetic abilities of Elliott Wave analysis has all but been virtually disregarded, because of a handful of it's more popular analysts having surmised improper conclusions, in both the recent past and the present. It has been my experience that the Elliott Wave never fails to display the path of the stock market, only those reading the waves, so to say, fail in their interpretation.
http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
It is unfortunate that the prophetic abilities of Elliott Wave analysis has all but been virtually disregarded, because of a handful of it's more popular analysts having surmised improper conclusions, in both the recent past and the present. It has been my experience that the Elliott Wave never fails to display the path of the stock market, only those reading the waves, so to say, fail in their interpretation.
http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
Have you considered that the uptrend beginning in March 2003 is now a completed 5 wave impulse with the fifth wave being an ending diagonal triangle?
Under this scenario it looks like the uptrend is complete for now.
See my chart below.
I have been studying Elliott waves for many years now. I used to subscribe to the EWI STU newsletter but after it lead me astray so many times in my market timing I cancelled it.
Now i am on my own. I must admit that Elliott waves all look perfect in hindsight but are limited in predicting the market - mostly because there are so many variations of the waves and interpreting them is just as much an art as it is a science.
So what is your opinion on this fifth wave triangle idea?
-Carl
Under this scenario it looks like the uptrend is complete for now.
See my chart below.
I have been studying Elliott waves for many years now. I used to subscribe to the EWI STU newsletter but after it lead me astray so many times in my market timing I cancelled it.
Now i am on my own. I must admit that Elliott waves all look perfect in hindsight but are limited in predicting the market - mostly because there are so many variations of the waves and interpreting them is just as much an art as it is a science.
So what is your opinion on this fifth wave triangle idea?
-Carl
Attachments
Quote from FreeSpirit:
Have you considered that the uptrend beginning in March 2003 is now a completed 5 wave impulse with the fifth wave being an ending diagonal triangle?
Under this scenario it looks like the uptrend is complete for now.
See my chart below.
I have been studying Elliott waves for many years now. I used to subscribe to the EWI STU newsletter but after it lead me astray so many times in my market timing I cancelled it.
Now i am on my own. I must admit that Elliott waves all look perfect in hindsight but are limited in predicting the market - mostly because there are so many variations of the waves and interpreting them is just as much an art as it is a science.
So what is your opinion on this fifth wave triangle idea?
-Carl
Carl,
When I interpret the waves I do not rely strictly on the waves themselves. That's where most get into trouble. I use in conjunction what I call a Market Momentum Indicator (MMI), it measures the relative strength of each wave in relationship to the others. In fact, it moves precisely with the waves themselves. I believe I posted a note in this thread on its application: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/newreply.php?s=&action=newreply&postid=876324
This is why I do not believe it is diagonal triangle.
Tony
Quote from balda:
It looks like 5th wave ended on January 3, 2005 and than ABC
disclaimer: I never studied EW and never read anything on "How to do it".
My opinion is based on the charts I've seen before.
It COULD have ended that way.
But we're still not finished with the momentum cycle.
Very interesting Nasdaq triangle started January 2002. I wonder what's Tony's take on it.Quote from FreeSpirit:
Have you considered that the uptrend beginning in March 2003 is now a completed 5 wave impulse with the fifth wave being an ending diagonal triangle?
Under this scenario it looks like the uptrend is complete for now.
See my chart below.
I have been studying Elliott waves for many years now. I used to subscribe to the EWI STU newsletter but after it lead me astray so many times in my market timing I cancelled it.
Now i am on my own. I must admit that Elliott waves all look perfect in hindsight but are limited in predicting the market - mostly because there are so many variations of the waves and interpreting them is just as much an art as it is a science.
So what is your opinion on this fifth wave triangle idea?
-Carl
Attachments
Am I wrong, or in the third wave of the last I-II-III (not yet in your #876324 post) was too short to be a third wave? Does it mean that you interrupted this wave too, and started another embeded one? So, 1-2- and I-II- are suspended?Quote from gharghur2:
Carl,
When I interpret the waves I do not rely strictly on the waves themselves. That's where most get into trouble. I use in conjunction what I call a Market Momentum Indicator (MMI), it measures the relative strength of each wave in relationship to the others. In fact, it moves precisely with the waves themselves. I believe I posted a note in this thread on its application: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/newreply.php?s=&action=newreply&postid=876324
This is why I do not believe it is diagonal triangle.
Tony