Here is the situation from the front lines. Not Wallstreet as the smart money is not in the market....look at the volume. The front lines as the Manufactures who are privately held.
I am hearing, across the board that they are seeing things pick up, including guys tied to RE. However, they have ZERO plans on hiring in 2010 or 2011. The orders coming in, from plastics to steel, from concret to asphalt, to EOMs....are small. However they are something. Yet, they are not looking to hire for years out. Of course, if they have to, orders pick up huge, they will..but its not in their forward guidence.
All of my clients have owned their businesses for longer than 10 years, most 30 to 40 years. They have all stacked up chips along the way. They are all very skeptical of the Federal Reserve, the WallStreet crowd and the Administration. They have left about 1% of their net worth in the "Market" Most are pilling into hard assets.
Thus, they have no intention on investing in the US STOCK MARKE or on bringing up their overhead via payroll without a clear sign that the Administration is dead in the water, that Wallstreet clowns (banking) show their true cards (Debt they are holding) and the Fed Reserve stop PRINTING MONEY!. Yes the fed is allowing OBAMA to print money. They are buying guns and ammo as well as becoming very active in the grass roots movement with in the republican party....they are not giving to the traditional RNC.
Now the truth will come out in the next few quarters. Keep an eye on the states that are going bankrupt, keep an eye on the regions of this country that are 13% and higher in unemployment . A "DEPRESSION" is upon those states and it will be devistating to all those who live, work and freeload of their state goverment in those areas.
Keep an eye on the regions that have stablitiy in RE, jobs, and debt. No one has exscaped this mess unharmed. But, there are states that are holding up very well, with lower unemployment, lower debt and even surplus in revenue. These states, their residents, companies, even the scum bag freeloaders will do very well in the next decaded.
The money is flowing into the stable regions as I speak. Read the business section and see how many companies are relocating to the Southern Region, like Texas, Alabama, even Tenn.
We are only in the eye of the storm. Yet, there are pockets that are very well protected.
Question is, are you sheltered?
Jobless recovery is the case and so will be carter like inflation with very tight lending. LAY AWAY will take over the "Credit Card" bunch and most will have a negitive savings rate before summer.
Consumer spending will not bounce back and inventories of RE will sit for years. Jobs will be created but it will be a small % who find them.