NYT - Paul Krugman - 1928 and the Market Crash

[Ricter]

Quote from mbradley:

No, you check your history. Stealing people's property is the surest way to destroy a civilization. And when it is done by a collection of cruel, half educated theorists like yourself, the body count stacks to the sky.

You sound just like Pol Pot. Seriously.

Ok, so you don't like how humans get when the disparity of wealth becomes too great. Neither do I. Now do something about it besides buy guns. Perhaps you'll figure a way to rewire the primate brain. I'd certainly appreciate that. Seriously.

 

[mbradley]

Whining about disparity of wealth is just such a tired old leftist hack job. There has always been a disparity of wealth, and there always well. And this is how it should be.

If you think people are pissed off because of a disparity of wealth, you should see them when everyone has the same wealth regardless of work ethic or talent or ambition.

Instead of shared wealth, all you will have is shared misery.

 

[mbradley]

Its amazing to me how many losing traders are socialists.

When did you become a socialist? After you lost all your money trading and after you lost all your time hanging out on trading chat boards? Or where you a socialist before you lost all your money and time?

 

[SouthAmerica]

.
October 16, 2007

SouthAmerica: I just want to remind all you guys that October is always a special month to have a major stock market crash.

The big one is coming but I am not sure if it will happen in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 or even 2012 – but you can bet the new crash is around the corner.

Basically you have two excellent choices to choose from right now: you can commemorate the 20 year anniversary of the 1987 crash right now with another crash, or you can wait another 2 years and commemorate the 1929 crash with a crash even bigger than that one.

I wonder when the new fireworks will start…

.

 

[Daal]

just a few(120) instances where krugman was either wrong or biased
http://home.pacbell.net/weidners/jottings2/krugman_index.htm

 

[Arnie]

Quote from southamerica:

.
October 16, 2007

SouthAmerica: I just want to remind all you guys that October is always a special month to have a major stock market crash.

The big one is coming but I am not sure if it will happen in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 or even 2012 – but you can bet the new crash is around the corner.

Basically you have two excellent choices to choose from right now: you can commemorate the 20 year anniversary of the 1987 crash right now with another crash, or you can wait another 2 years and commemorate the 1929 crash with a crash even bigger than that one.

I wonder when the new fireworks will start…

.

SA,

If we don't get a crash in Oct, will you agree to............just go away?

 

[SouthAmerica]

.

October 16, 2007

SouthAmerica: Reply to Arnie

What are you suggesting that we skip the month of October every year?

And have a new calender with only 11 months?

That's a good one Arnie. A very good solution to avoid a new stock market crash here in the United States.


.

 

[SouthAmerica]

.
October 16, 2007

SouthAmerica: By the way, Wall Street is always innovating and creating new gimmicks – Why they don’t do some innovation in that are as well, and have a big stock market crash in some other month of the year?

Why Wall Street mindset regarding big crashes is stuck in the month of October?

Maybe oil prices at $ 100 a barrel or Turkey attacking the Kurds will do the trick and voila we have the crash of 2007.

Anyway we still have 2 weeks for the crash of 2007 – otherwise we have to wait for the crash of 2009 – 2008 is not a good year for a stock market crash since it is an election year and people will be busy in October of 2008 with the coming elections.

.

 

[drmarkan]

Quote from southamerica:

.
October 16, 2007

SouthAmerica: By the way, Wall Street is always innovating and creating new gimmicks – Why they don’t do some innovation in that are as well, and have a big stock market crash in some other month of the year?

Why Wall Street mindset regarding big crashes is stuck in the month of October?

Maybe oil prices at $ 100 a barrel or Turkey attacking the Kurds will do the trick and voila we have the crash of 2007.

Anyway we still have 2 weeks for the crash of 2007 – otherwise we have to wait for the crash of 2009 – 2008 is not a good year for a stock market crash since it is an election year and people will be busy in October of 2008 with the coming elections.

.

A big part of crashes occuring in October may be that 3rd quarter earnings come out and give everyone a general picture of how the DJIA companies are going to fair for the entire year. I don't have the historical data, but it would be interesting to see what the earnings numbers were for 1987. Throw in poor economic numbers, and there you have it.

I don't think we will see a crash by any means this year. It would be too early to panic at this point. Even with the bad news about the housing market that has been coming out, homeowner confidence is still above 50% which tells me panic selling is a ways off. If positive news does not come out over the course of 2008, then we may be in for a fairly big correction at best, if not an all out sell off (crash).

 

[SouthAmerica]

Quote from SouthAmerica:

.

Yesterday, May 23, 2005, when I was reading Paul Krugman’s column in the New York Times: “America Wants Security,” I did realize that Paul Krugman, an economist that I respect and believe that he will receive the Economic Nobel Prize in the future, was endorsing on his column what I have been saying on my articles about the US economy in the last two years.

I have been writing about this subject for a long time, and this is the first time that I saw any economist writing about this subject in recent history, and it feels good to receive the endorsement, regarding what you have been saying, from an outstanding economist such as Mr. Paul Krugman. (Mr. Krugman said on his column that we can compare many of the events today with 1928, right before the beginning of the Great Depression.)

I believe that we are living today in a period right prior to the beginning of the next great worldwide depression, and I have posted a number of treads regarding that subject. When Americans elected George W. Bush in November of 2004, that event has sealed their faith – and as a result they are going to experience what feels like to live through a nasty economic depression.

During most of 2003, and 2004 I have been saying the following:

Around the time of the stock market crash of 1929, people needed very little money to buy stock on margin. Basically they borrowed most of the money to buy their stock. But today people need a lot more up front money to be able to buy stock on margin, and there is less exposure to risk than in the 1920’s.

One of the triggers of the stock market collapse of 1929 was margin call on stock purchased on credit, since in the 1920’s a lot of people were buying their stocks on credit with a small amount of upfront cash. Margin calls was a major problem during the stock market crash of 1929.

Today, the equivalent to margin calls in 1929 is "Derivatives." The Derivatives global market today, is estimated to be over 125 trillion US dollars.

This time around, "Derivatives" will be the trigger to a massive stock market collapse like the one that we had in 1929.

I have no doubt that the derivatives market today will become the trigger of a collapse in the stock market similar to what margin calls represented in the stock market collapse of the 1929.

Today, we are away overdue for a new stock market crash, and worldwide depression anyway. When we will have: The Big Meltdown?

The coming worldwide depression will be triggered by the collapse of the derivatives market, and we are closer than most people realized of a “Derivatives Market Tsunami.”

The first article that I wrote describing in detail the coming derivatives problem was published in November 2002 – “ The Big American Lie” – and I also said: “how to live in a world of illusion.”

On February 4, 2005 I did send the following article for publication in various newspapers and magazines from around the world. Eventually these various publications published the article on its original form, or they had to edit it to fit the space available on their specific publication. Here is a copy of the article on its original form:

.

April 29, 2012

SouthAmerica: Because the mainstream media, and most economists are not recognizing that the new Great Depression is underway - very few people such as myself, has been saying for a few years that the “First Great Depression of the 21st Century” has been underway. This is a very important point that most people doesn't understand and they don't grasp regarding the current “Great Depression”: Only a few years in the future the mainstream media, and most economists in general will look back to this period in history that we are going through, and then they will finally start calling it the “First Great Depression of the 21st Century.”


*****


Are we in midst of 2nd Great Depression? - April 28, 2012
<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/JeY8Ol0DcVM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>


As austerity measures lead to the fall of yet another European government, some are beginning to question if this is a global recession, or something even worse. Our resident Lori Harfenist is in New York to find out what people there think.


*****


Here are some of my postings here on ET about this subject:

Economic Forecast for US Economy for 2012 and Beyond...
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=233861

January 1, 2012

SouthAmerica: ...By the way, this new great depression that is underway, it will be a lot worse than the great depression of the 1930's.

You might be wondering why the US mainstream media has not been using the term “Great Depression” to described what has been going on in the economy of many countries all over Europe, and in the United States?

Only few years in the future they will look back to this period that we are going through, and then they will start calling this period the “First Great Depression of the 21st Century.”


*****


http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=755236&highlight=Great+Depression#post755236

May 25, 2005

Yesterday, May 23, 2005, when I was reading Paul Krugman’s column in the New York Times: “America Wants Security,” I did realize that Paul Krugman, an economist that I respect and believe that he will receive the Economic Nobel Prize in the future, was endorsing on his column what I have been saying on my articles about the US economy in the last two years.

I have been writing about this subject for a long time, and this is the first time that I saw any economist writing about this subject in recent history, and it feels good to receive the endorsement, regarding what you have been saying, from an outstanding economist such as Mr. Paul Krugman. (Mr. Krugman said on his column that we can compare many of the events today with 1928, right before the beginning of the Great Depression.)

I believe that we are living today in a period right prior to the beginning of the next great worldwide depression, and I have posted a number of treads regarding that subject. When Americans elected George W. Bush in November of 2004, that event has sealed their faith – and as a result they are going to experience what feels like to live through a nasty economic depression.

During most of 2003, and 2004 I have been saying the following:


*****


http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...age=6&highlight=great depression&pagenumber=2

May 26, 2005

Here I am quoting from another article of mine that was published on "January 2003" on various newspapers and magazine. I wrote the article in December 2002, before the US forces invaded Iraq - article “Getting Ready for War.” I am quoting about half of that article as follows:


…The Coming Economic Depression


*****


Derivatives Meltdown
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...age=6&highlight=great depression&pagenumber=1

August 30, 2005

SouthAmerica: The coming worldwide depression will start when the derivatives market blows off. What kind of event can take that market over the edge?

Who knows?

The derivatives market is a market that is on automatic pilot – going in which direction?

Just God knows.

The meltdown will start with a domino effect in the derivatives market – what will trigger such a meltdown? That will be the subject of case studies after the meltdown catches everyone by surprise.

There are many scenarios that could trigger such a meltdown. The most basic one would be a natural disaster such as a major earthquake in the center of Tokyo that would cause a massive destruction. That would cause an immediate crash of the US dollar, and a possible meltdown in the derivatives market.


*****


“Over 75 years ago Wall Street Crashed; but today the New Crash is already underway….”
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...782317&highlight=Great+Depression#post1782317

February 7, 2008

SouthAmerica: I wrote about this subject on various articles in the last few years, but as we approach very quickly the beginning of the New Great Depression it is worth to review some relevant information.

This it is just a reminder to give people a chance to prepare for the coming hard times.

.