I agree, for futures (and short dated CL and NG vanilla options) the business will eventually move to the screen but I would be very surprised to see long dated and/or complex NG and CL options as well as any HU and HO options beyond the front two months, on a screen. I think that there's a decent chance that you see the futures liquidity move to a screen and the options liquidity (assuming they can be cleared) move to the OTC voice broker maket.
Having said that, commericials will be the "decision makers" when it comes to the business moving to the screen. If the commercials don't migrate to the screen, neither will the specs.
IMO, the NYMEX pits will be around for much longer than many anticipate. Several years ago everyone thought that the OTC volume would move to screens and everyone who could build a screen (Enron Online, Dynegy Direct, Coral Connect, Tradespark, Houston Street, etc) but as soon as the bubble burst, most OTC volume moved back to voice brokers. In 1999-2001 there were a couple dozen screen based markets available but ICE is the ONLY one still alive, save a few product specific platforms i.e. Charkboard.
In addition, OTC clearing is significantly increasing OTC business, including NYMEX look-a-likes...We've always done a lot of OTC volume but we're doing a lot more OTC and a lot less NYMEX now that we can clear many of our trades.
IMHO, 10 years from now NYMEX will most likely be more of a clearinghouse than a pit traded exchange. In addition, I think you'll see several screen based applications fighting for the trading volume while the trades are cleared through NYMEX.
The question is, who can build a solid platform that also provides effortless clearing via NYMEX, LCH, etc? IPE/ICE can't do it, they've tried (and been the dominant organizations in this space) and have failed. And if you've ever traded on Access or Clearport you know that NYMEX isn't the answer.
In other news...
Nymex nears approval from London authorties Nymex nears approval from London authorties
By Kevin Morrison
Published: July 20 2005 21:10 | Last updated: July 20 2005 21:10
The New York Mercantile Exchange said it is at an âadvanced stageâ in its application to obtain regulatory approval from the Financial Services Authority to set up an open outcry oil futures exchange in London.
However, Samuel Gaer, chief executive officer of Nymex Europe, said he could not provide a start-up date for Nymex in London. Nymex applied to the FSA in April, and industry officials expect the worldâs largest energy futures exchange to start trading in the UK capital by the summerâs end.
If approval is obtained, Nymex intends to transfer its Brent futures trading business from Dublin, where it set up a trading floor last November to take on the International Petroleum Exchange, the dominant custodian of the Brent crude future contract.
Mr Gaer remained upbeat about Nymexâs success in London despite Dublin attracting a small proportion of the daily trading volumes in Brent. Oil traders have also embraced electronic trading with volumes in the IPE Brent contract rising since the exchange closed its trading pits in April.
âWe are doing what our customers want. This is not about open outcry versus electronic, it is about what the customer wants,â said Mr Gaer.
He said between 20 and 30 traders were working on its Dublin floor, which has generated volumes of more than 5,000 a day on average in its Brent contract so far this year, or less than 5 per cent of the rival Brent contract on the IPE.
However, the move to electronic trading has not been seamless. Last Thursday, the IPE delayed settlement in its Brent and gasoil contracts after the suspension of trade, costing some traders money.
A lot is riding on Nymexâs success in London, as it is seen as a litmus test for its international expansion plans in Dubai and Tokyo, and possibly China.