nycderivtrader journal

I have found something similar- on the first day, the sellings (varying degrees). The second day either people start buying back or there is a moderate selloff (for some reason the stocks I watch do not frequently have a large 2nd day selloff). The third and fourth days then depend on that important second day.

If on that second day there is a massive selloff again, I would get the heck out of the position without question. If there is a moderate sellout that hasn't hit my stop loss, then I heavily consider what I am doing and re-evaluate. If starts to go up- either a little or a lot, then there is a greater chance of reaching my recovery point- validating my believe that the security was overly sold off.

I read a study a few months ago by a thestreet.com editor of the longer term performance of heavily % losers in one day. The results were not very favorable in the long term, so I try to enter in and out of a trade (favorable one) in a few days. I don't expect the reward to be worthwhile holding on for weeks.

nyc



[[[[[[[[i too sometimes buy situations like hd. i find that whenever i violate the 3 day rule it gets painful at times because no one can know when the selling will end. hd was up 50% since march so it is possible it could go lower.
the three day rule on a bad news dumpers goes as follows: day 1 the traders bail. day 2 the slow acting mutual funds bail. day 3 you can think about buying.}}}}}}}}}}}
 
Second day trading

DOW 9797.50
NAZ 1760.54
S&P 1000.30

Yesterday's Holdings:
HD Home Depot
AVG Price of 32.56
29900 Shares valued at $961,584.00

Today's Trades:
Buy HPQ HEWLETT-PACKARD 6,200 @20.04 $124,252.00
Sell HD HOME DEPOT 9,900 @32.57 $322,404.68
Sell HPQ HEWLETT-PACKARD 3,300 @ 19.84 $65,468.90

Now holding:
HD 20,000
HPQ 2,900

Total Value: $1,098,243.78
Cash: $389,423.78
Stock Value: $708,820.00

Change for day: +1.12%
10% Goal per month, by 9/15/03 1.2M, requires 9.26% return from here.

Today's trades-

HD came back, but not as much as I had planned for today. I ended up selling about a third of my holding in the company, keeping the cash. This is a precaution in case we see some downward movement tomorrow at the open. If we do, I will sell off my position. If it remains stable, I expect to see slight upward movement again. Will still look to sell this at 33, however, I will begin liquidating my position starting at 28.80.

HPQ was the big mover today in the market- down over 10%. I bought in at 20.04 and am down for the day 1.1% After being down substantially due to earnings issues (price competition), Dell came out with news that they will be slashing prices up to 22%, further increasing HPQ earnings difficulty. This will most likely be a longer term issue for the company, nothing getting rid of the price war anytime soon. I will look to get rid of the stock at around 20.80 and have a stop loss at 19.40.

nycdt
 
Just so you all know what I am paying per share, etc:

-I am paying .05 a share with a maximum commission charge of
5%
-Sales will be charged an SEC fee of the proceeds of the sale
divided by 30,000

As you can see, the virtual fund that I am running on marketocracy is not very useful in day trading. My results would be higher if I were charged less in commission (and I assume some of my strategy would change as well). The fund incorporates the charge into the price of the purchase and sale, so I don't have much of an advange in rates. Do any of you know where I can trade that would provide cheaper rates (paper trade).

Because of the .05/share each way, I don't even look at stocks under $10 because they don't really move enough to make the risk worthwhile. Unfortunate.

I'm still looking to make a min of 5% compounded a month, with a goal of 10% a month.

http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin...undPublicPage/source=LdOgBfHgDpApCgBkMaKiAbDe

nycdt
 
Second day trading

DOW 9,423.60 +26.10
NAZ 1,777.55 +17.01
S&P 1,003.27 +2.97

Yesterday's Holdings:
HD 20,000
HPQ 2,900

Total Value: $1,098,243.78
Cash: $389,423.78
Stock Value: $708,820.00

Today's Trades:
Type Symbol Quantity Net Commission SEC Fee
Sell HD 5,000 $163,130.43 $250.00 $7.65
Sell HD 5,000 $163,660.12 $250.00 $7.68
Buy OSIS 7,000 $100,407.60 $350.00 $0.00
Sell HD 5,000 $163,639.70 $250.00 $7.68
Sell HD 2,000 $65,496.92 $100.00 $3.08
Buy GLYN 1,160 $13,961.86 $58.00 $ 0.00
Sell OSIS 7,000 $102,441.57 $350.00 $4.82
Buy AAII 9,200 $152,342.80 $460.00 $0.00
Sell HD 3,000 $97,753.81 $150.00 $4.59
Sell AAII 6,858 $116,641.58 $342.90 $5.48
Sell HPQ 2,900 $56,462.15 $145.00 $2.65
Sell AAII 480 $8,135.61 $24.00 $0.39
Sell AAII 1,862 $31,528.84 $93.10 $1.48
Buy NTES 4,100 $202,070.41 $205.00 $0.00
Buy CEPH 7,000 $301,326.90 $350.00 $0.00
Sell GLYN 1,160 $13,815.52 $58.00 $0.65
Sell NTES 4,100 $200,360.05 $205.00 $9.39
Sell CEPH 7,000 $303,815.48 $350.00 $14.24
Buy NTES 340 $16,741.72 $17.00 $0.00
Buy NTES 12,300 $607,918.87 $615.00 $0.00
Sell NTES 1,710 $84,583.57 $85.50 $3.97
Sell NTES 10,930 $541,351.77 $546.50 $25.37
Buy JNJ 10,100 $498,614.00 $505.00 $0.00



Now holding:
JNJ 10,100 shares


Value: $1,107,737.25
Cash: $608,797.25
Stock Value: $498,940.00


Change for day: +.87% = +$9,500
10% Goal per month, by 9/15/03 1.2M, requires 8.3% return from here.

Today's trades-
As I mentioned in my posts yesterday, today was a key trading day for my heavy HD holding. I did not see the stock take off as much as I needed to in order to hold it for another day. I started selling off my holding in blocks, starting from 32.63 and all the way up to 32.75 (and some in between). Gained a few grand off of this investment.

Made some shorter than normal trades in some stocks that got kicked down today:
AAII, NTES (with caution!), OSIS, CEPH
Rode some up and then sold a few times. Worked out well today, but I still don't believe in this kind of trading. The reason for my short term trading based on fluctuating prices is my belief that we are going to see a correction soon, and I don't want to hold anything for more than a few days.


nycdt
 
In reality... you probably will learn very little from this entire experience.

The second you start using real $.. the whole thing changes. If you dont believe me .. you will.



--MIKE
 
Man you're gonna get a rude awakening when you start trading for real
This is like playing Nascar on the PS2
Let's see how you feel driving around the track at 200MPH in real life

:D
 
Yeah, I am doing some risky volatility stuff. In real life I know I wouldn't be trying to play around with this kind of movement, however, I would consider entering in on a beaten (intra-day) stock.

Real life I would enter into a week long trade at shortest. I guess regardless of whether I think the market is going to tank, I should just focus on my longer term trading.

Comments?
 
I think you should make your paper-trading more real
Like trade with money you think you'll have when you start for real
Come on, 1 million dollars?? :D

How bout start with 50K/100K??
 
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