To be honest I'd lost the faith in Nov and am still surprised. It will be interesting to see how they pay for the existing and yet to be passed COVID spending or if they decide just to not to. If everyone in the world goes into additional debt by similar relative amounts at the same time, does anyone really lose or gain ground because of it?
One other interesting thought leads me to be bearish on an FTT happening (besides the fact that I'll have to donate to your cause!). The Democrats will only feel the need to find revenue to offset spending when conservatives will suddenly start caring about deficits again in 13 days and try to block spending on that basis. Those conservatives are also unlikely to support an FTT, and at the very least won't let Democrats assume that the revenue from the FTT will actually materialize. So either the Democrats in power ignore deficit spending and so don't need to turn to an FTT for revenue, or they need revenue but won't be able to use an FTT to recognize it because the folks forcing them to get the revenue won't support it or count it. Of course that ignores PAYGO, but it's been ignored so many times that I tend to count its effectiveness as minimal.
