NVDA - Screaming buy?

I never trust my analysis of stocks from a fundamental point of view in companies where I don't know the business,which is almost every business out there save mine. So I can't speak knowledgably to NVDA's business prospects, but the stock chart is manic depressive.

I would like to buy NVDA with the thought that it will enter another manic phase soon, but it has broken all supports and its long term trendline. Stocks rarely recover from that in any short period.

Look at Borland in the late 1980s and you will understand what I mean. This company ruled the market for programming software during a huge expansion period for PCs and software. The stock went from 3 to 60. And back to 3. Microsoft kicked the total shit out of them even though Borland had the initial advantage.

It is difficult to imagine that intel could not successfully integrate graphics on a chipset and kick the shit out of nvdia.

But however it plays out, the charts will give you a blow by blow.
 
Nvda has 2 nice quad cards out, ati is no match for nvda, although the intc thing is a issue. want to see the difference between nvda and ati, look at gamecube and xbox. i have no position in nvda.
 
I don't play too many games, other than free cell and don't know much about the product. But what are all the people who bought at 20 30 40 50 going to do when it starts to go up?

I just finished with today's charts, all except the new lows, and I filter, 380. New highs, 30. That was pretty easy to pick through.

There are plenty of great companies out there, but right now it seems like the baby is going out with the bath. Even some Riets and mortgage riets which have been fantastic are rolling over.

Guess all I can say is spread it around, if you invite 100 strangers to your birthday party 10 will show up and 3 may just bring a present.
 
Guess what the p/e of Worldcom was on the day it blew up completely.....6 !!!!!!!! Did that make it a value ? Heck no! And you may say that it was just fraud, but you know what? even without fraud they were completely losing their butts. They didn't need fraud to go under.

DON'T BELIEVE THAT P/E !!!!!!!

It isn't real dude. don't believe it. I repeat, do not believe that the stock will go up because of the p/e ratio you see on your computer. It is bullcrap, plain and simple. Why is it bullcrap ? Because the people that really know what is going on and have a handle on what the future earnings will be don't think they will make any money. Remember that if the "E" in P/E goes negative, There is no more P/E !

As far as value in general goes, I don't think there are any real value stocks in the S&P 500 and definitely none in the nasdaq 100.

here is a scenario for you: Lets assume for the sake of argument that the p/e of 10 is real and reflects current reality. Then lets say that they are holding their own in a declining biz and have flat earnings and revenue growth. That would make them overvalued at even a p/e of 10. In that case you would have to look at book value, price to cash, etc, which are all sky high. If there was real value at current prices, it would no longer be dropping like a rock. The only prudent thing to do if you simply must own it is to wait for it to bottom out and make a base for several months minimum.
 
Dot,

That is a good point. The other thing I will add is that WCON had about $12 per share in assets according to Value Line.

Not trying to sway anyone one way or another, and by definition a bear market ends when the maximum number of stocks make a new low. But that in and of itself does not mean that you rocket right up. And I am ashamed to say I held on to some things too long, but I also beat myself up for selling some things to early.

It's tricky to rock a rhyme.
 
I'm looking at NVDA as well. My buy price is probably $7. Couple of points:

a. they guided up for this qtr in May. Coming in significantly lower puts the management in a very deep penalty box.

b. NVDA just admitted that INTC and ATI are taking market share and margins are going down. This trend might not stop for the next few qtrs.

c. Tech companies where margins are E is going down typically trade near cash - which is 5.46 here.

Is it a buy right now? No way. Its going down.
 
sure signs of a newbie ( not to be insulting, I used to be a newbie like everybody else ) :

1. ignoring poor relative strength

2. Rationalizing bad news

3. Listening to sell side analysts

4. Believing they can play Warren Buffett
 
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