The Aussie dollar-U.S. dollar is looking at bearish trend lines from 24-hours up to five times that. And at 0.7154, the rate is currently located near the tops (lower upper regions) of the six-, eight- and 24-hour price ranges. I am therefore inclined to anticipate price dropping from here and hope to see it fall perhaps even as low as my target down around 0.7090.
Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses
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The U.S. dollar-Japanese yen's candlesticks are painting above the five-month baseline, which makes the pair bullish from a "global" standpoint. Moreover, the one- and two-month measures are also decidedly bullish, as was the two-week baseline up until this week. And though the one-week price range envelope has been neutral for the past four weeks, the rate is currently located near this channel's lower band. Finally, the 24-hour baseline is losing momentum, suggesting that the descent initiated on November 26th might be nearing exhaustion. I will therefore be watching for this pair to turn north sometime next week or the week after. If it does, I plan to buy the pair and remain long until and unless the daily trend turns south once again.
The Euro-U.S. dollar is somewhat conflicted. Everything is bearish except for the five-month baseline, which is still bullish—but just barely. The pair's price ranges are keeping pace with its descent, so that theoretically, it could continue falling at this rate forever without ever hitting statistical support. Its candlesticks climbed above the daily baseline on November 26th, but at 1.1304, price appeared to be in the process of falling below this measure once again (which looks to be nearing the point of exhaustion). Consequently, I would be willing to enter a short position if price were to pull back to around 1.3447, or if it were to begin showing signs of remaining below its current level of 1.1318.
The Euro-Cable has been characterized by a neutral "global" bias ever since 2018, when the five-month baseline turned neutral. But, from a more granular yet still longer-term perspective, everything is bearish (i.e., the one- and two-week price range envelopes, along with the one- and two-month price range envelopes). However, the rate almost reached the upper band of the weekly channel when it approached the 0.8547 level, and now looks inclined to head south, seeing as how the 16-hour moving average is hooking downward, and price has fallen below the 24-hour baseline (though this measure is still bullish). Confirmation of a new bearish day-to-day bias will occur if and when the daily trend line evidences a hinge that swings lower as well, with the ultimate validation consisting of the rate crossing below a downward sloping two-day baseline.
The U.S. dollar-Aussie dollar fell for the entire month of November and is still falling. Nonetheless, the five-month baseline is still bullish, so if and when the pair finally does decide to reverse direction, it "should" continue to climb for a number of days.
I expect it to turn north any moment now given that, at 0.6996, it is already below the extreme lower band of the two-week price range envelope. Yet and still, it is nowhere near the uttermost lower band of this measure, which is way down at 0.6612.
Moreover, it has not yet reached the bottom of the two-month price range envelope at 0.67954, nor the bottom of the one-month price range envelope at 0.6883. But again, I emphasized that the "big money" move is to buy this pair as soon as the two-day baseline hinges upward, especially after observing a reversal in the five-day baseline, which will confirm a change of bias/sentiment.
Here is an experiment to try out...
When the 24-hour baseline is sloping in a particular direction, and the 48-hour baseline is confirming the trend by sloping in that same direction, enter positions if and when price pulls back "behind" the 24-hour baseline.
Use this strategy on four-hour charts. Execute the trades when the six- and eight-hour baselines are either neutral, or are reversing direction from trajectories opposed to the slopes of the one- and two-day measures to a course that is aligned with them.
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Obviously, with Friday's development, the 16-hour moving average is no longer hooking downward and price is back up above the 24-hour baseline, which never confirmed a new bearish day-to-day sentiment by swinging lower. Moreover, the rate has yet to come even close to crossing below a downward sloping two-day baseline, so that it remains bullish from a daily perspective.
Using roughly the same mindset, but going at it from an intraday context, use 15-minute charts instead and base pullbacks on the two-hour measure, with the most useful parameters being the 1.28, 2.14 and 3.46 levels on the lower-panel two-hour price range oscillator.
EXAMPLE: Look to enter short positions at the points/levels marked by the solid vertical lines.
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The Aussie-Yen is looking at a bullish five-month trend line with a two-month baseline that has turned more-or-less neutral over the last three to four months. As of today, it appears the pair just might be in the process of initiating a bounce off the lower region of a slightly bullish one-month price range envelope, not to mention a two-week price range envelope that was bullish up until the start of this month. Consequently, there is a very good chance I will enter a buy-and-hold long position sometime before the end of this week, with an ultimate goal of banking anywhere between 200 to 600 pip’s worth of profit over the next few days.
This is going to be a redundant entry...
Tuesday / December 7, 2021
After more-or-less finishing my book on Numerical Price Prediction, including a section on position trading, I figured I might as well make use of the effort I put into that part of the publication by integrating the resulting "big picture" parameters into my day-trading mindset.
I noted on November 13th that AUDJPY had a bullish five-month baseline, which is still true. The two-month price range envelope is neutral, and the one-month and two-week measures turned bearish at the start of this month. (The one-week price range envelope has been bearish from almost the beginning of November).
The bullish five-month moving average, and the location of the rate near statistical support (i.e., the lower regions of the price ranges) led me to conclude in November that in the long run, the big money move would be to buy the pair if and when the weekly trend turned north, in spite of all the bearish measures.
That might be about to happen given that the daily trend began climbing yesterday. Plus, price is now positioned above the 48-hour baseline. Consequently, I'm likely to begin entering long positions should I observe an upward hinge form in this second measure as well.
AUDUSD and CADJPY are also looking at upward reversals in the daily trend. Moreover, this change in bias has been confirmed in CADJPY by a hinge in the two-day baseline as well.
EURAUD is turning south. EURGBP is trying, but looks to only be neutral at this point. EURJPY appears to be in a neutral state as well as it takes a crack at turning north. GBPJPY is in the same situation.
Everything about EURUSD is still bearish (except for the five-month measure). This suggests that, at the intraday level, I should sell the pair if and when the present 1- and 2-hour pullbacks run out of steam. Ditto for GBPUSD.
USDCAD turned south yesterday, and USDCHF turned north on Friday of last week, as did USDJPY.
Tuesday / December 7, 2021
After more-or-less finishing my book on Numerical Price Prediction, including a section on position trading, I figured I might as well make use of the effort I put into that part of the publication by integrating the resulting "big picture" parameters into my day-trading mindset.
I noted on November 13th that AUDJPY had a bullish five-month baseline, which is still true. The two-month price range envelope is neutral, and the one-month and two-week measures turned bearish at the start of this month. (The one-week price range envelope has been bearish from almost the beginning of November).
The bullish five-month moving average, and the location of the rate near statistical support (i.e., the lower regions of the price ranges) led me to conclude in November that in the long run, the big money move would be to buy the pair if and when the weekly trend turned north, in spite of all the bearish measures.
That might be about to happen given that the daily trend began climbing yesterday. Plus, price is now positioned above the 48-hour baseline. Consequently, I'm likely to begin entering long positions should I observe an upward hinge form in this second measure as well.
AUDUSD and CADJPY are also looking at upward reversals in the daily trend. Moreover, this change in bias has been confirmed in CADJPY by a hinge in the two-day baseline as well.
EURAUD is turning south. EURGBP is trying, but looks to only be neutral at this point. EURJPY appears to be in a neutral state as well as it takes a crack at turning north. GBPJPY is in the same situation.
Everything about EURUSD is still bearish (except for the five-month measure). This suggests that, at the intraday level, I should sell the pair if and when the present 1- and 2-hour pullbacks run out of steam. Ditto for GBPUSD.
USDCAD turned south yesterday, and USDCHF turned north on Friday of last week, as did USDJPY.
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