Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses

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If you look at the GBPJPY monthly chart, the five-month baseline has been bullish since December of 2020, and the two-month trend turned north at about the same time. However, the instantaneous moving average began losing ground in August, but then turned north again in October. So, even though November’s candlestick is red, if the rate climbs from here, it could continue its massive rise of more than 1600 pips since last November.

But, why would it do so?

Perhaps because price is presently in the lower half of the 24-hour price range, with the 48-hour baseline having turned north four or five days ago. Moreover, though the 24-hour and one-week trends are currently bearish, the two-week measure is bullish, just like the three moving averages mentioned at the start of this analysis. So then, all I needed was for candlesticks to begin painting above the six-hour baseline to confirm a bullish intraday sentiment, at which point, I felt justified in buying the pair.

 

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USDCHF Most everything about this trend is neutral, except for the five-month baseline, which is bearish. (The one-week price range envelope is hinting at the pair turning north next week.)

The Loonie-Chief has been looking at a more-or-less neutral two-week price range envelope for the last three to four months. Nonetheless, the day-to-day measures turned north at some point on Tuesday, and the 48-hour baseline has been bullish ever since the 11th of this month. So, it made sense to me to enter a long position as the pair pulled out of the pullback it initiated yesterday. But, given that the U.S. financial markets are closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday, I'm not sure about the chances of the rate hitting my take-profit target before the weekend arrives.

 

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EURGBP It's bearish, but it's been trading weird ever since April 2021. Last week it began falling from 0.8588, as the math suggested it should. The numbers say it "should" continue falling to around 0.8430 before heading north once again.

Everything about the Euro-Cable that was written above is still true. If the pair commits to turning north once again, as it is hinting at doing as of this week, it has plenty of room to climb up above, even though it is still overall bearish—possibly as much as 100 pips or so, to around the 0.8530 neighborhood.

 

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AUDJPY The five-month baseline is bullish, the two-month baseline turned north in the middle of 2020, but is now neutral, and the one-month baseline is also bullish. This suggests that in the long run, the big money move is to buy the pair when the weekly trend, which is currently bearish, reverses to the north. So, unless the pair is going to try to force a wholesale reversal to the south, expect this to happen anywhere between 77.27 up to 82.12, which is about a 130 pips below the level where the rate is presently located.

My numbers put ultimate support for AUDJPY at 79.81. This is only 84 or so pips below where the rate is currently located. And that's with a slightly bullish monthly trend line and a very bullish two-week trend line. It's true that the five-day measures are still bearish, as they have been for the last three weeks, but at 80.65, this pair is below the extreme lower band of the five-day price range. All of this recommends buying (and holding) the Aussie dollar-Japanese yen as soon as I see the 4-, 6-, and 8-hour baselines turn north—especially once their bullish sentiment is confirmed by the 16-hour baseline—and especially after this confirmation is in turn validated by the 24- and 48-hour baselines.

I'm going to try to start thinking in terms of minimum units of four hours and ride the more massive moves exclusively. If the above forecast is solid, I ought to see AUDJPY climb at least 200 to 600 pips after it eventually turns north, before the 48-hour baseline decides to initiate its next descent.

 

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This has led me to conclude that when it comes to position trading Forex, the key measures are the one-, two- and five-month baselines. Viewing the markets from this perspective suggests to me what I should be looking to do to make "big money moves," so I figure I might as well integrate this knowledge into my trading as long as it is available, which is what I am doing here.

The process of integrating this knowledge into my trading has taught me that the key measures to rely on when looking to make "big money moves" while employing more of a buy-and-hold position style of trading are not the one-, two- and five-month baselines. Rather, they are the five- and twelve-day price range envelopes (and baselines), or in weekly terms, the one- and two-week price range envelopes.

The longer-term measures are too far removed from day-to-day price action, which is where one needs to be engaged in practical terms if efficiency (and effectiveness) is (are) any kind of concern whatsoever.

 

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When do you expect to see these pairs turn north?

AUDJPY any second now, but certainly not much below the 79.80 handle.

AUDUSD any second now, but certainly not much below the 0.7930 handle.
CADJPY any second now, but certainly not much below the 86.70 handle.
GBPJPY somewhere between 147.14 to 150.45.


When do you expect to see these pairs turn south?

EURAUD somewhere between 1.5920 to 1.6345.
USDCAD somewhere between 1.2814 to 1.3057.

 

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EURAUD The five-month baseline is bearish, the two-month baseline is slightly bullish to neutral, and the one-month baseline is bearish. Price appears to be bouncing off the floor of the one- and two-week price ranges (the latter measure is still bearish, but the former looks like it is about to turn north). I therefore suspect I will be looking to buy the pair next week, but the big money move is to sell the pair when it bounces off resistance, anywhere between 1.5987, approximately 375 pips above its present location, all the way up to 1.6873.

The Euro-Aussie dollar has a number of bearish longer-term measures, including the one- and five-month baselines, along with the two-week price range envelope. And after having climbed dramatically on Friday, the two- and four-hour trend lines now suggest that price might be rolling over after bouncing off lower level resistance in the upper regions of both the five- and twelve-day (one- and two-week) price range envelopes. I'm therefore hoping the pair will follow through and continue falling, possibly all the way down to the 1.5570 neighborhood.

 

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There is a lot that is bearish about the Cable-U.S. dollar (i.e., the 1- and 2-month measures, the 1- and 2-week measures, and the 2-day baseline). On the other hand, the 16- and 24-hour baselines have gone neutral, with price having now climbed above them, and with the 2-, 4-, and 6-hour trend lines having turned north. All of this looks relatively bullish for the immediate future. Moreover, if price can climb from where it is now at 1.3358, it will have cleared the 2-day baseline as well, and should this same measure subsequently turn north, it will solidify a new bullish sentiment/bias.

 

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What in the world caused this?

Was it due to Powell announcing that it's time to retire "transitory" for inflation? Whatever it was, it messed up my trade from the previous post and put me in a serious hole. Fortunately, I was able to get it all back...

 

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I entered a short position two days ago when the Euro-Aussie dollar was evidencing a number of bearish longer-term measures, including the one- and five-month baselines, along with the two-week price range envelope (all of which still remains true). This was because after having climbed dramatically on Friday, the two- and four-hour trend lines were suggesting that price might be rolling over after bouncing off lower level resistance in the upper regions of both the five- and twelve-day price range envelopes. However, I had to abandon the position with only 22 pips worth of profit when the 34- and 120-minute trend lines began to turn north again.

The difference today is that candlesticks have now crossed below the 16-hour baseline, which is the first potential confirmation signal of a new bearish day-to-day sentiment. Stronger validation calls for a downward hook in the 24-hour trend line, which has not happened yet, with the strongest verification of a fresh bearish daily bias consisting of the 48-hour baseline hinging downward as well. However, this last measure is often a lagging indicator, so I do not plan to wait for it before I execute the trade.