The 24-hour price range suggests that EURAUD should turn north at the start of next week anywhere between its current level at 1.5606 down to 1.5523.
Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses
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USDJPY is near the top of the 24-hour price range. Consequently, you should wait for it to pull back to at least the 24-hour baseline (or the bottom of the eight-hour price range) before buying the pair.
I'm thinking probably not. The daily trend has just turned north today, plus price is currently above the 48-hour baseline. So then, it appears AUDJPY is bouncing off the 12-day trend line, so I'm likely to enter a long position come the next pullback.
Last week I formed the opinion that the best way to take advantage of looking at the Forex market from a position trader’s perspective when trading using the NADEX platform is to purchase Call Spreads set to expire as close to 24 hours as possible. I find this to be preferable over weekly Knock Outs because with Call Spreads, one cannot be stopped out of his or her positions—yet there is no danger of suffering an unlimited amount of loss, as there is when trading a traditional Forex brokerage account without stops.
In evaluating last week’s most profitable trades, the results once again confirmed that the gist of day-to-day price flow is best represented by the 48-hour baseline and not the 24-hour baseline, as one might reasonably expect, given that this latter measure regularly evidences less significant price fluctuations that are often temporary in nature and totally unrelated to where the rate is ultimately headed.
Similarly, within a broader context, the one-week baseline is too fast a measure to convey the general direction in which price is headed if operating out of a buy-and-hold framework, where the lowest time frame that appears to be trustworthy in this role is the two-week baseline.
Accordingly, what I will be looking for next week are NADEX Call Spread trade opportunities where the faster/lower moving averages are reversing course to transition from advancing against similarly aligned two-day and two-week baselines to flowing along in the same direction with them.
At this time, the only pair that looks close to offering such a setup is GBBJPY. Its two-day baseline turned north four days ago, the two-week trend has been bullish ever since October 11, 2021, and price is currently located near the base of the 24-hour price range, which is neutral at the moment.
The time to buy will be if and when the two-, six- (and 16-) hour baselines are all sloping upward, which is not yet the case.
On Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday of last week EURAUD was climbing when, according to technical measures, in the overall scheme of things, it should be falling. Actually, on Friday it began to do so. You should therefore watch it at the start of this week and enter a short position if you see it continue its descent (i.e., if it drops below the one-, two-, eight-, 16-, 24- and 48-hour baselines).
(The one-week price range envelope is neutral, but the 48-hour, two-week and one-month measures are all bearish.)
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The Euro-Aussie dollar’s five-month baseline is bearish, the two-month baseline is slightly bullish to neutral, and the one-month baseline is bearish. So, even though the pair was climbing on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday of last week, according to technical measures, in the overall scheme of things, the pair should be falling, which it actually began to do on Friday. I therefore entered a short position when I saw price continue its descent by dropping below the one-, two-, eight-, 16-, 24- and 48-hour baselines, and hope to see it follow though in the days to come.
If you look at the monthly chart, the five-month baseline has been bullish since December of 2020, and the two-month trend turned north at about the same time. However, the instantaneous moving average began losing ground in August, but then turned north again in October. So, even though November’s candlestick is red, if the rate climbs from here, it could continue its massive rise of more than 1600 pips since last November.
But, why would it do so?
Perhaps because price is presently in the lower half of the 24-hour price range, with the 48-hour baseline having turned north four or five days ago. Moreover, though the 24-hour and one-week trends are currently bearish, the two-week measure is bullish, just like the three moving averages mentioned at the start of this analysis. So then, all I need now is for candlesticks to begin painting above the six-hour baseline to confirm a bullish intraday sentiment, at which point, I would be justified in buying the pair
Stay with the two-week measure for overall price flow. But, for the general trajectory from day-to-day, switch from two days, which is still too sensitive to less significant price fluctuations, to five days, which paints a more accurate picture of the daily directional tendency...
Even so, the two-day baseline (and price range envelope) needs to remain on the chart to provide the immediate trajectory from day to day—the course constituting the daily trend's present "line of orbit" as opposed to the more all-encompassing "tendency."