EURGBP has gone nowhere in the last eight days, or actually, in the last two or three months. Still, the fall that was initiated back in January appears to be over now, and if the pair follows through on today's buy signal, it's possible that I might be able to ride a bullish leg upward for days or weeks to come, with no danger of my incurring any overall loss.
Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses
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There is nothing more I can do here, bub. This facet of Numerical Price Prediction has been fully fleshed out. It's now time to drill down to the five-minute level and detail the precise protocol for executing strategic trading that optimizes entries and exits to absolutely maximize profits and absolutely minimize losses.
Saturday, May 22, 2021
I am in the process of synthesizing four pages of notes in light of a not-yet-verified/tested analysis of guerrilla trading which in turn stemmed from the "do trade tops and bottoms" version of Numerical Price Prediction that generated the above-mentioned notes. The guidelines resulting from this evaluation should probably be preceded by a set of axioms or postulates that serve as the basis of the reasoning behind the guidelines. They include the following:
Culminating Numerical Price Prediction DOT-TAB Trading System:
I am in the process of synthesizing four pages of notes in light of a not-yet-verified/tested analysis of guerrilla trading which in turn stemmed from the "do trade tops and bottoms" version of Numerical Price Prediction that generated the above-mentioned notes. The guidelines resulting from this evaluation should probably be preceded by a set of axioms or postulates that serve as the basis of the reasoning behind the guidelines. They include the following:
- The responsiveness of any baseline higher than four hours is going to be too lacking (lagging) to be of practical use when it comes to the kind of "flawless" trading that is able to virtually wipe out any losses.
- Consequently, the 4-hour baseline constitutes the highest time frame that should be used to determine in which direction to enter positions.
- Measurements greater than this can be used in making structural decisions. For example, if the 4-day price range envelope is clearly bullish, and candlesticks begin painting in the lower half of the 4-day price range, it makes sense to look for opportunities to buy as soon as the 16-hour baseline reverses to the north. Likewise, if the 16-hour price range envelope is clearly bullish, and candlestick begin painting in the lower half of the 16-hour price range, it would make sense to look for buying opportunities as soon as the 4-hour baseline reverses to the north.
- Though the 4-hour baseline constitutes the highest time frame that should be used to determine in which direction to enter positions, it is best to obey the dictates of this measure if-and-only-if it is confirmed/verified by the slope of the 16-hour baseline (and the slope of the 8-hour baseline).
Culminating Numerical Price Prediction DOT-TAB Trading System:
- Check to see in which direction the 4-day price range envelope is sloping, if at all.
- Determine in which direction the 16-hour price range envelope is sloping. (Typically, you will only be entering positions when the slope of the 4-hour baseline and 8-hour price range envelope match this trajectory. The 16-hour baseline is more-or-less the arbiter of whether the day-to-day bias is bullish or bearish.)
- If the 4-day price range envelope is sloping upward, look to enter positions while candlesticks are located in the bottom half of this price range (following upward reversals in the 16-hour baseline). If the 4-day price range envelope is sloping downward, look to enter positions when candlesticks are located in the top half of this price range (following downward reversals in the 16-hour baseline).
- If the 16-hour price range envelope is sloping upward, look to enter positions while candlesticks are located in the bottom half of the price range (following upward reversals in the 4-hour baseline). If the 16-hour price range envelope is sloping downward, look to enter positions when candlesticks are located in the top half of the price range (following downward reversals in the 4-hour baseline).
- (Of course, the ideal scenario is when the 16-hour price range envelope and the 4-day price range envelope are both sloping in the same direction!)
- Similarly, you can also enter positions when candlesticks are painting on the half of the 8-hour price range envelope that is away from the trajectory of its pitch angle (i.e., the direction of its slope) following a reversal in the 4-hour baseline (or the 2-hour and/or 40-minute baseline, as appropriate).
- The best time to enter positions is when price is bouncing off (as it is rejected by) the 16-hour temporal support/resistance level, or the 24-hour temporal support/resistance level, as appropriate. (The use of the 2-hour price range envelope at 0.22% deviation has been temporarily/indefinitely suspended).
- A more-or-less reasonable take-profit target is the "far side" of the 8-hour price range envelope, or the 16-hour temporal support/resistance level, as appropriate.
- You can also enter positions when the 20-, 40-, and 60-minute baselines are crossing BACK over the 2-hour baseline and/or 4-hour baseline AFTER candlesticks have been painting near or beyond the outer edge of the 8-hour price range. This is especially true if price has, at the same time, made contact with or breached the outer edges of the 16- and/or 24-hour price ranges as well.
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It has been replaced by the use of the 2-hour price range envelope at 0.32% deviation.
Compiled Anecdotal Observations as of Friday, July 9, 2021:
A relatively safe, low-risk technique for day trading is to simply trade in the direction matching the slope of the two-hour baseline, one candlestick length at a time.
But in doing so, one should remain cognizant of the fact that the two-hour trend will not oppose the four-hour trend for very long. So, if the two are not aligned, either the two-hour trend will reverse direction rather quickly to correct this misalignment, or if not, it will force the four-hour trend to change its trajectory, thereby signaling/confirming a wholesale reversal in the intraday trend. (Five days ago you commented that reversals in the intraday trend are evidenced by a change in the trajectory of the five-hour baseline accompanied by fresh headway being made with respect to the nine-hour temporal support or resistance level, as appropriate; and that this is in turn confirmed by the 7-hour baseline "smoothed.")
Even so, such price action (the intraday trend) tends to be restricted or constrained by the 12-hour price range envelope, which apparently discourages price from venturing beyond the 0.30% to 0.40% deviation levels under more typical conditions, or outside of 1.00% to 1.50% deviation levels under more extreme conditions.
This is another way of saying that the day-to-day general flow of price is reflected or conveyed by the 12-hour price range envelope at 0.30% to 1.50% deviation.
On the other hand, general price flow from week-to-week is reflected/conveyed by the 5-day price range envelope at 0.90% to 3.80% deviation (though 3.05% seems to be more the norm).
All of this is to say that though the most profitable actionable trades at the intraday level are governed by the two-hour baseline, the most lucrative trades over the long haul are those which are entered when the two- and four-hour baselines are reversing direction to come into alignment with the slope of the 12-hour price range envelope, which is itself reversing direction to come into alignment with the slope of the 5-day price range envelope.
(It might be that the best "launch pads" for such trades are found in the form of price rejection at support or resistance levels suggested by areas of confluence between the outer edge of the 24-hour price range; the 2½-day (60-hour) temporal support or resistance level, as appropriate; and/or the 10-day temporal support or resistance level, as appropriate.)
From five days ago...
Always check whether candlesticks are painting on the "wrong" side of a sloping two-day and/or five-day price range envelope to recognize in which direction price is ultimately likely to be drawn.
In terms of "scalping":
The best time to execute intraday, guerrilla or ICT trades using the weekly price range configuration on a one-hour chart is when price is rejected after candlesticks have made contact with the side of the 4- and/or 9-hour temporal support/resistance channel(s) that is opposite the slope of the 6- and 24-hour baselines, as confirmed by the 5-hour baseline, when the 6- and 24-hour measures are aligned/in agreement with one another.
From two days ago...
A relatively safe, low-risk technique for day trading is to simply trade in the direction matching the slope of the two-hour baseline, one candlestick length at a time.
But in doing so, one should remain cognizant of the fact that the two-hour trend will not oppose the four-hour trend for very long. So, if the two are not aligned, either the two-hour trend will reverse direction rather quickly to correct this misalignment, or if not, it will force the four-hour trend to change its trajectory, thereby signaling/confirming a wholesale reversal in the intraday trend. (Five days ago you commented that reversals in the intraday trend are evidenced by a change in the trajectory of the five-hour baseline accompanied by fresh headway being made with respect to the nine-hour temporal support or resistance level, as appropriate; and that this is in turn confirmed by the 7-hour baseline "smoothed.")
Even so, such price action (the intraday trend) tends to be restricted or constrained by the 12-hour price range envelope, which apparently discourages price from venturing beyond the 0.30% to 0.40% deviation levels under more typical conditions, or outside of 1.00% to 1.50% deviation levels under more extreme conditions.
This is another way of saying that the day-to-day general flow of price is reflected or conveyed by the 12-hour price range envelope at 0.30% to 1.50% deviation.
On the other hand, general price flow from week-to-week is reflected/conveyed by the 5-day price range envelope at 0.90% to 3.80% deviation (though 3.05% seems to be more the norm).
All of this is to say that though the most profitable actionable trades at the intraday level are governed by the two-hour baseline, the most lucrative trades over the long haul are those which are entered when the two- and four-hour baselines are reversing direction to come into alignment with the slope of the 12-hour price range envelope, which is itself reversing direction to come into alignment with the slope of the 5-day price range envelope.
(It might be that the best "launch pads" for such trades are found in the form of price rejection at support or resistance levels suggested by areas of confluence between the outer edge of the 24-hour price range; the 2½-day (60-hour) temporal support or resistance level, as appropriate; and/or the 10-day temporal support or resistance level, as appropriate.)
From five days ago...
Always check whether candlesticks are painting on the "wrong" side of a sloping two-day and/or five-day price range envelope to recognize in which direction price is ultimately likely to be drawn.
In terms of "scalping":
The best time to execute intraday, guerrilla or ICT trades using the weekly price range configuration on a one-hour chart is when price is rejected after candlesticks have made contact with the side of the 4- and/or 9-hour temporal support/resistance channel(s) that is opposite the slope of the 6- and 24-hour baselines, as confirmed by the 5-hour baseline, when the 6- and 24-hour measures are aligned/in agreement with one another.
From two days ago...
- Under normal conditions, price tends to fluctuated within the 40-minute price range between the 0.09% to 0.18% deviation level.
- However, an elevated level of volatility can see candlesticks venture as far out as 0.55% deviation, and under the most extreme conditions, this can stretch to as far as 1.10%.
- Reversals from such extremes are more-or-less tracked by the 13-minute baseline, but this measure is not to be trusted.
- Accordingly, short-term trades should not be executed until potential reversals are confirmed by the 23-minute baseline.
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Use the 40-minute price range envelope at 0.18% deviation to gauge where to set your stop loss.