Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses

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SUMMARY

USDJPY - The four-day and daily price range envelopes are bullish, along with the 16-hour baseline; but the four-hour and eight-hour baselines are bearish. (The four-day price range envelope turned bullish 8 or 9 days ago, and the 16- and 24-hour price range envelopes turned bullish two days ago.) So, you ideally want to enter a long position when the four- and eight-hour baselines turn north again—especially following a pullback to and a bounce off the 16-hour temporal support level. (The closer this happens to the lower band of the 8-, 16-, and/or 24-hour price range envelope(s), the better.)

EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDJPY, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF - Conflicted

EURJPY, GBPJPY - Buy them the next time they bounce off support.

EURGBP - Slightly bearish to neutral

EURAUD - Ideally, you want to see the 8-hour baseline turn north so you can buy the pair as price is rejected by support.

AUDJPY and AUDUSD - What you do here will depend on whether the 16- and 24-hour trends join the four-day and 8-hour trends heading north, or whether the 8- and 16-hour trends join the 24- and 32-hour trends heading south.

CADJPY - Full on bullish

 

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If EURGBP forms a green daily candlestick today, I would expect to see it once again climb back up to the 0.8680 neighborhood.

This is neither here nor there! The daily candlesticks cannot tell you what to do. The reason you bought EURGBP was because of the slope(s) and/or relationships between the 8- and 16-hour baselines. Expecting the pair to climb back up to 0.8680 might or might not prove to have been an erroneous assumption. I wouldn't count on it until and unless you observe that 1⅓-day baseline join the 24-hour baseline in sloping upward, which it has yet to do. Until then, the pair is still overall bearish.

 

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USDCAD - Conflicted

There are better trades than this, but let's just run through (and document) this thought process for the sake of the exercise...

The 8-hour price flow was bullish for two days, but turned bearish half way through Friday. So technically, you should want to short the pair. However, the 16- and 24-hour price range envelopes look slightly bullish, and though the 1⅓-day price range envelope might still be marginally bearish, it almost looks neutral. Consequently, I'd be more inclined to buy this pair as it is being rejected by support (24-hour temporal support level and the lower band of the 8-hour price range envelope).

Still, you don't want to be annihilated if the U.S. dollar-Loonie actually does keep going south, so perhaps the best thing to do is to shoot for a conservative take-profit target, like just under the most recent local high; and set a relatively tight stop loss, just under the 24-hour temporal support level.

That way, you will reap a little benefit if you turn out to be right, yet will exit the position quickly, without incurring too much loss, if you turn out to be wrong.

 

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AUDJPY and AUDUSD - What you do here will depend on whether the 16- and 24-hour trends join the four-day and 8-hour trends heading north, or whether the 8- and 16-hour trends join the 24- and 32-hour trends heading south.

But, for the time being, you should be looking to buy following pullbacks to, and price rejection at, the 16- and/or 24-hour temporal support level(s) and/or the lower band of the 8-hour price range envelope.

EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDJPY, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF - Conflicted

My advice to myself is that if you opt to mess with these conflicted currency pairs at all, you should ONLY engage in a "guerrilla trading" approach to your efforts—the short-term technique that aims to generate small, fast profits while also taking on very little risk per trade.

 

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My advice to myself is that if you opt to mess with these conflicted currency pairs at all, you should ONLY engage in a "guerrilla trading" approach to your efforts—the short-term technique that aims to generate small, fast profits while also taking on very little risk per trade.

 

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AUDJPY has been climbing since the middle of November 2020, or since the beginning of April 2020 if you discount the September-October dip. Both the 4- and 12-day baselines are bullish, and the 24-hour baseline looks to be rounding out a bottom. This suggests to me that even though the pair has been bogged down in the general region where it's now located for...like...nine days, it should eventually break higher at some point in the month. I'm therefore going to go ahead and enter a long position now, even though I'm not quite sure what price is going to do in the immediate future..

 

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I went ahead and pocketed my gains from AUDJPY because the structure on its lower-time-frame charts suggested the pair is positioned for a pullback.

I will therefore reenter a long position if and when the pair bounces off intraday support.

 

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Tuesday / May 18, 2021 / 6:30 AM PST

I lacked a great deal of confidence in this trade, and therefore chose to sell 0.01 lots rather than 0.02, gaining only 18ȼ instead of 36ȼ...

But, that is neither here nor there. The point is, AUDJPY was in essentially the same situation as it was yesterday...

From Duxon's Archive:

Yet, this time, it looks like the pair is behaving as I expected it to behave yesterday, and scalping just a couple of pips was indeed the right move to make. Trying to maximize my return would have been a mistake, and I am once again long the pair.

This lends support to the notion that choosing NOT to go against the direction of the eight-hour trend remains a key guideline when day trading NPP—a factor that is of greater significance than the location/position of price within the 8- or 16-hour price range envelope(s), not to mention the slope of the 24-hour and 1⅓-day baselines.

If I manage to trade this entire week without incurring any losses, it might give me the confidence to begin trading using 0.03 lot sizes starting next week.

UPDATE:

Perhaps I spoke too soon. It's 40 minutes later and it now looks like AUDJPY is back on the decline, though it spent four hours clawing its way upward, little by little, before doing so.

 

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Continue to evaluate this particular scenario to determine which of these two options is likely to result in the highest winning percentage.

So then, I stand corrected. At this point, based on the two instances in which this scenario has presented itself thus far, it appears that I should go ahead and try to maximize my return even if price will be going against the eight hour trend, provided it is doing so from the edge of the 8- and/or 16-hour price range and is supported by the slope of the 24-hour and/or 1⅓-day baseline.

 

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So then, I stand corrected. At this point, based on the two instances in which this scenario has presented itself thus far, it appears that I should go ahead and try to maximize my return even if price will be going against the eight hour trend, provided it is doing so from the edge of the 8- and/or 16-hour price range and is supported by the slope of the 24-hour and/or 1⅓-day baseline.

Yep! AUDJPY has now made it all the way to the other side of its 8-hour price range, though it has taken almost all of 24 hours to do so.