Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses

[expiated]

Are you trading any single name equities? Or just forex?

The only reason (for me) to trade single name equities is to confirm how I go about, which I've already done. So, buying stocks is just something I dabble in on the side merely for "fun," because it takes WAY too long for me to make a lot of money via that market.

With a couple of hundred bucks or so, I should be making like $20 every single day trading Forex by June. But, there's no way I could do that with just a few hundred dollars in the equity market.

 

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Saturday / April 24, 2021 / 9:30 AM PST

Contrary to what you claimed below (from Post #306) the 1⅓-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day baselines are NOT too lagging when it comes to gauging in which direction price is headed from day to day.

What you have to do is conceptualize the 2⅓-day temporal support/resistance levels as launch pads for entries in light of slope of these baselines.

Sometime tonight, see how this measure compares with those on the four-hour charts you're already using. Also, evaluate what you were doing that led you to identify the above moving averages as too lagging when in fact, they aren't, depending on how they are being used. (I'm guessing it will probably have to do with determining exactly when to get in and exactly when to get out of positions.) Also, alter the compilation below so that all the measures are color coded correctly.

(And look to add the missing [six-day] price range envelope from Post #307.)​

 

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Saturday / April 24, 2021 / 5:25 PM PST

Sometime tonight, see how this measure compares with those on the four-hour charts you're already using.

Based on the above evaluation, I might have been justified in stating that the 3- and 4-day baselines are too lagging to accurately convey the day-to-day direction of price in a timely fashion, but the 1⅓-day baseline definitely is not, and the 2-day baseline is probably a good measure to use for confirmation...

In terms of how the new measure compared with those already plotted on my four-hour charts, the 2⅓-day temporal support/resistance level is close to the 2⅔-day temporal support/resistance level already in use. Both of these measures look like they might constitute good "launch pads" for entering positions at the intraday level (along with the 8-hour price range at 0.33% deviation).

The 16-hour temporal support/resistance level is in the neighborhood of the 1-day and 1⅙-day temporal support/resistance levels already in use. However, these measures "hug" price action too tightly to forecast potentially valid and/or reliable intraday support and resistance levels. (in fact, they are probably likely to be more-or-less ignored, if not eventually deleted altogether.)

The 4⅓-day temporal support/resistance level falls into the same category as the 4-day, 4½ day, and 9-day temporal support/resistance levels already in use. The 9-day level looks to confirm major trend reversals, but it and the other three measures do not "hug" price action close enough to identify potential launch pads for entering positions.

I'm going to have to confirm whether the following is true, but based on the looks of the four-hour chart configuration, I don't think I'm really going to want to actually do what's described below:

Instead, I'm probably going to only want to enter positions when price is rejected at or beyond the 90-minute price range when and if this coincides with the outer edge of the 8-hour price range envelope at 0.33% deviation AND/OR the 2⅓-day to 2⅔-day temporal support/resistance levels. It's likely that the 4-hour temporal support/resistance level, the 14-hour temporal support/resistance level, the 2-hour price range, and the 4-hour price range are not reliable enough to be used in the manner describe above.

To determine when such reversals are taking place, I'm pretty sure I will be relying on the 40-, 60-, and 90-minute baselines along with the 2-hour baseline; looking to the 3- and/or 4-hour baselines if and only if I feel the need to seek confirmation.

Since the four-hour charts suggest using the 1⅓-day baseline to determine in which direction to execute trades, I will need to evaluate whether including the 8-hour and/or 16-hour baselines is really necessary as I'm setting up the new charts. (Not necessary, dude. You're using the 8-hour price range envelope for entries, so using its baseline for direction makes no sense. Likewise, the 16-hour baseline is also too sensitive to intraday price fluctuations. Look to the 8-hour measure for structure only—nothing else.)

 

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Wednesday / April 28, 2021 / 11:28 PM PST

To determine when such reversals are taking place, I'm pretty sure I will be relying on the 40-, 60-, and 90-minute baselines along with the 2-hour baseline; looking to the 3- and/or 4-hour baselines if and only if I feel the need to seek confirmation.

Final Decision?

Now that I feel completely satisfied with the swing style of trading I've been working on for the past couple of months, I'm guessing that going forward, I will be setting it aside and returning to more of a surgical approach. This will virtually guaranty that I'll be making money in small increments, all day long, day after day, with a virtual 100% success rate, as illustrated by the last five trades made here...

So, with this methodology, I will not be looking to the 3- and/or 4-hour baselines if and only if I feel the need to seek confirmation with respect to reversals. Instead, I will by looking to the 3-, 3½-, and 4-hour baselines to tell me in which direction to trade!

I will be entering and exiting positions as dictated by the 20-minute baseline, along with the 40-, 60-, 90-, and 120-minute baselines—but ONLY in the direction matching the slopes of the 3-, 3½-, and 4-hour baselines.

Rather than confirming reversals, the 3-, 3½-, and 4-hour baselines will flat out signal reversals in the intraday trend, and it is only in these situations that I will be looking for more significant payouts per trade (if I'm not mistaken).

Consequently, I will no longer be making market forecasts in advance, since all of my trade decisions are going to be made "on the fly."

 

[expiated]

I will be entering and exiting positions as dictated by the 20-minute baseline, along with the 40-, 60-, 90-, and 120-minute baselines—but ONLY in the direction matching the slopes of the 3-, 3½-, and 4-hour baselines.

Anecdotal observation suggests that a reasonable stop loss level, generally speaking, would be the "opposite" side of the 90-minute price range, as appropriate, at 20% deviation.

 

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Friday / April 30, 2021 / 8:15 AM PST

Rather than confirming reversals, the 3-, 3½-, and 4-hour baselines will flat out signal reversals in the intraday trend, and it is only in these situations that I will be looking for more significant payouts per trade (if I'm not mistaken). Consequently, I will no longer be making market forecasts in advance, since all of my trade decisions are going to be made "on the fly."

Final Decision:

On second thought, rather than setting aside the pseudo swing style method of trading you finalized over the past couple of months to return to more of a surgical approach, as you typed in the previous post, probably the easiest thing to do would be to adopt a routine that falls in between, not very different from the protocol described above.

More specifically...

Referring primarily to your 15-minute ("six-day and twelve-day baseline") chart setup, execute trades (enter positions) as the slopes of the 2-hour and/or 4-hour baselines realign themselves with the slopes of the 16-hour and 24-hour (1-day) baselines. (This is likely to occur at the 16-hour and/or 56-hour (2⅓ days) temporal support/resistance levels and/or near the outer edges of the 24-hour price range and/or near the outer edges of the 8-hour price range.)

Remain in these positions until and unless (exit when) the 2-hour and/or 4-hour baselines once again begin to evidence misalignment with the the 16-hour and 24-hour (1-day) baselines.

Try this starting next week. It's extremely simple, yet likely to be very profitable, God willing, and looks like it will allow you to trade successfully with a nearly a 100% win rate without your having to constantly monitor your charts.

You might also conceptualize this approach as looking for opportunities to buy as long as the 2-hour and 4-hour baselines are above the 16-hour baseline, and looking for opportunities to sell as long as the 2-hour and 4-hour baselines are below the 16-hour baseline.

Another version of this is to buy as price is rejected at the 16-hour temporal support level when the 16-hour and 24-hour baselines are bullish (exiting when candlesticks make contact with the 56-hour temporal resistance level); and sell as price is rejected at the 16-hour temporal resistance level when the 16-hour and 24-hour baselines are bearish (exiting as candlesticks make contact with the 56-hour temporal support level, as illustrated below).

Given that you have just detailed three different nuanced perspectives above, it appears that there is likely to be a certain "art" to implementing this "between-swing-trading-and-scalping" intraday trade strategy. So, if you can find a way to make the directions more subjective over the next week or two, go ahead and do so. (For example, it seems like there are going to be situations in which you are going to want to execute trades following pullbacks in the 20-, 40-, 60- and/or 90-minute baselines.)

 

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Friday / April 30, 2021 / 7:30 PM PST

If you can find a way to make the directions more subjective over the next week or two, go ahead and do so.

In the final analysis (I do believe), my Forex trading career, if I actually end up having one, is going to be established on a methodology that falls somewhere between swing trading and scalping. For the sake of easy identification, I'm going to call this version of Numerical Price Predication (NPP) the DOP-TAB strategy (for DO Pick Tops and Bottoms, which many experts say is a humongous no-no when it comes to trading).

The rationale behind the strategy is very simple and straightforward: If a currency pair's day-to-day trend is bullish, enter a long position as the asset is bouncing off the day's low. If a currency pair's day-to-day trend is bearish, enter a short position as candlesticks bounce off the day's high. If a currency pair's day-to-day trend is neutral, enter a short or long position as candlesticks bounce off the day's high OR low, as appropriate.

So, here is the DOP-TAB protocol, as it now stands:

1. Check to see in which direction the 24-hour baseline is sloping, if at all.
2. Check to see if the 16-hour baseline is aligned with the 24-hour baseline. (If it is not, the 16-hour baseline takes precedence over the 24-hour baseline in any decision-making process.)
3. If the location of the 2- and 4-hour baselines in relation to similarly sloping 16- and 24-hour baselines is aligned with the trajectory of these two moving averages, under normal circumstances, you will be entering positions going in the SAME direction as the slope of the two longer-term moving averages.
4. One of the best times (if not THE best time) to do so is when price is bouncing off (as it is rejected by) the 16-hour temporal support level.
5. However, you can also opt to enter positions as price is recovering following pullbacks in the 20-, 40-, 60-, and/or 90-minute baseline(s) PROVIDED THE 2-HOUR BASELINE HAS NOT ALTERED ITS COURSE IN LOCKSTEP WITH THE SLOPE OF THE 16- AND 24-HOUR BASELINES.
6. There is only one set of circumstance the allows you to trade AGAINST the slopes of the 16- and 24-hour baselines, and this is when the 20-, 40-, and 60-minute baselines are crossing BACK over the 2-hour baseline AFTER candlesticks have been painting near or beyond the outer edge of the 24-hour price range. This is especially true if price has, at the same time, breached the outer edges of the 16- and/or 8-hour price ranges as well.

I think that covers it. Make modifications next week if and when you find it necessary to do so.

 

[expiated]

There is only one set of circumstance the allows you to trade AGAINST the slopes of the 16- and 24-hour baselines, and this is when the 20-, 40-, and 60-minute baselines are crossing BACK over the 2-hour baseline...

So then basically, according to the DOT-TAB NPP strategy, an intraday trader should ALWAYS be trading in the direction of the slope of the 2-hour baseline; either that or the trader should not be in a position—right? And this is especially true if the slope of the 2-hour baseline is also in alignment with the slope of the 4-hour baseline.

In that case, where do the 16-hour and 24-hour baselines come into play? Well, THEY are what you consult when trading binary options, when you need to use more of a pseudo swing trade tactic because you will only be executing one trade per currency pair per day.

 

[expiated]

So, here is the DOTTAB ("do trade tops and bottoms") protocol, as it now stands:

1. Check to see in which direction the 24-hour baseline is sloping, if at all.
2. Check to see if the 16-hour baseline is aligned with the 24-hour baseline. (If it is not, the 16-hour baseline takes precedence over the 24-hour baseline in any decision-making process.)
3. If the location of the 2- and 4-hour baselines in relation to similarly sloping 16- and 24-hour baselines is aligned with the trajectory of these two moving averages, under normal circumstances, you will be entering positions going in the SAME direction as the slope of the two longer-term moving averages.
4. One of the best times (if not THE best time) to do so is when price is bouncing off (as it is rejected by) the 16-hour temporal support level.
5. However, you can also opt to enter positions as price is recovering following pullbacks in the 20-, 40-, 60-, and/or 90-minute baseline(s) PROVIDED THE 2-HOUR BASELINE HAS NOT ALTERED ITS COURSE IN LOCKSTEP WITH THE SLOPE OF THE 16- AND 24-HOUR BASELINES.
6. There is only one set of circumstance the allows you to trade AGAINST the slopes of the 16- and 24-hour baselines, and this is when the 20-, 40-, and 60-minute baselines are crossing BACK over the 2-hour baseline AFTER candlesticks have been painting near or beyond the outer edge of the 24-hour price range. This is especially true if price has, at the same time, breached the outer edges of the 16- and/or 8-hour price ranges as well.
7. Initial observations suggest that a realistic and more-or-less reasonable take-profit target is the "far side" of the eight-hour price range.

​

 

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Thursday / May 6, 2021 / 8:40 PM PST

RETHINKING WHAT TO EMPHASIZE...

It's your contention that the 12-day baseline conveys where a foreign currency pair is ultimately headed, and I have no reason to differ with you on this point.

However, in terms of making actionable trade decisions, it is the 4-day price range where you need to direct most of your focus (i.e., place major emphasis).

If you think it might help, also note the slope of the 6-day baseline as well as whether candlesticks are painting above it, below it, or crisscrossing over and below it.