Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses

[expiated]

As of this week, I am relying more so on the 3½-day temporal support/resistance channel in place of the 8-hour baseline; and this is in conjunction with the 2-day price range envelope at 0.80% and 1.25% deviation; the 24-hour temporal support/resistance channel in place of the 4-hour price range envelope; and and the 14-hour temporal support/resistance channel; in place of the 2-hour price range envelope. So then, it would appear that the roles played by temporal support/resistance levels are taking over those formerly handled by statistical/typical price ranges.

So then basically, you are trading in the direction matching the slope of the 2-day baseline following reversals in the 40-, 60-, 90- and/or 120-minute baselines as price is rejected at the 14-hour, 26-hour and/or 3½-day temporal support/resistance level(s) depending on the amount of volatility, liquidity and momentum characterizing the market at the time.

If the 2-day baseline is neutral (i.e., the asset is in consolidation) trades can be executed in either direction, preferably at the 3½-day temporal support/resistance level, but at a minimum, the 26-hour temporal support/resistance level.

 

[expiated]

Friday, April 16, 2021

As of this week, I am relying more so on the 3½-day temporal support/resistance channel in place of the 8-hour baseline; and this is in conjunction with the 2-day price range envelope at 0.80% and 1.25% deviation; the 24-hour temporal support/resistance channel in place of the 4-hour price range envelope; and and the 14-hour temporal support/resistance channel; in place of the 2-hour price range envelope. So then, it would appear that the roles played by temporal support/resistance levels are taking over those formerly handled by statistical/typical price ranges.

You can add the 4-hour temporal support/resistance levels and the 2.67-day temporal support/resistance levels into the mix. Also, the slope of the 8-hour baseline should probably be taken into consideration along with the slope of the 2-day baseline, and it might be that you will be foregoing consultation with the 3½-day temporal support/resistance channel from now on, seeing as how the 2.67-day temporal support/resistance levels have just been introduced.

 

[expiated]

Tuesday / April 20, 2021 / 8:30 AM PST

I'm now guided by the instructions that follow below rather than these directions from Posts #286 and #290, which are very similar, but include a few nuanced/subtle changes.

Rely on the 16-hour, 1⅓-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day baselines on a one-hour chart to gauge in which direction price is headed from day to day, along with the 4½-day temporal support and resistance levels.

To better select entry and exit levels, drop down to five-minute (and perhaps even one-minute) charts.

Generally speaking, look for the above baselines to all by "perfectly" aligned (more-or-less) in terms of their slopes and structure (i.e., fanning out).

Execute trades when price makes contact with and is subsequently rejected at the 24- (or 26-) hour temporal support or resistance level, as appropriate, and be aware that the 4½- and 15-day temporal support/resistance levels can also come into play. (Note that the 14-hour temporal support/resistance levels need to also be incorporated into this routine.)

The 8-hour baseline and 45-minute baselines should be consulted to help gauge in which direction rates are ultimately headed at the intraday level.

And don't forget, it is also important to monitor the four-hour, eight-hour, and two-day price ranges in anticipation of where one might expect mean reversion (regression toward the mean) to take place.

 

[expiated]

Friday / April 23, 2021

From a four-hour perspective...

• Rely on the twelve-day baseline for the direction in which rates are ultimately headed.

• Look to the eight- and sixteen-hour baselines to determine where price is probably headed in the more immediate future.

• Assign considerable significance to reversals that take place as price is rejected at the upper or lower edge of the 24-hour price range and/or at the nine-day temporal support or resistance level, as signaled by a hook in the eight- (and sixteen-) hour baseline(s).

(Look to insert these measures into the one-hour configuration described in the previous post.)

 

[expiated]

From a five-minute perspective...

Look to enter positions when price is rejected at or beyond the 90-minute price range—especially if this coincides with the 4-hour temporal support or resistance level, the 14-hour temporal support or resistance level, the 26-hour temporal support or resistance level, the 2-hour price range, the 4-hour price range AND/OR the 8-hour price range.

This is particularly true if the 2-, 4-, and 8-hour baselines are sloping in the same direction, and the reversal sends price headed off on a corresponding trajectory.

 

[expiated]

Rely on the 1⅓-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day baselines on a one-hour chart to gauge in which direction price is headed from day to day, along with the 4½-day temporal support and resistance levels

These measures from Post #303 are too lagging. Only use the 8- and 16-hour baselines to determine in which direction to execute (swing) trades.

So then, based on your last three entries, the first thing you want to look for when you glance at the one-hour charts on your watch list is... Are the 2-hour and 4-hour baselines aligned, and if they are, is the 8-hour baseline also aligned with them? For any pair where this is true, you'll want to drop down to the 5-minute chart and wait for ideal entry and exit levels. (Or you could simply do this directly on your 5-minute charts.)

 

[expiated]

Assign considerable significance to reversals that take place as price is rejected at the upper or lower edge of the 24-hour price range and/or at the nine-day temporal support or resistance level, as signaled by a hook in the eight- (and sixteen-) hour baseline(s).

The above situation takes on even more significance if it occurs near or outside the six-day price range. (But where does the two-day price range fit in all of this? It had a great deal of importance in one of the other configurations you were using recently.)

You're trading with more precision now than you were then and have narrowed your horizons, electing not to attempt to forecast quite so far into the future. Consequently, you're using the 24-hour price range and the 16-hour baseline to fill the role that previously belonged to the 2-day price range.

 

[.sigma]

Unique charts, pretty.

time is price

price is time


Good work, ex

 

[.sigma]

Reading some of your journal now.

it looks like you conjoin different time frames, confirmation of one time frame will look to confirm the smaller ones.

I also like your volatility fabric. I’ve always wanted to use something similar, but there’s just so much noise in the visual and I like to keep my charts extremely simplex.

Are you trading any single name equities? Or just forex?

 

[expiated]

it looks like you conjoin different time frames, confirmation of one time frame will look to confirm the smaller ones.

The different time frames are all the same, so one does not confirm another. They simply offer different perspectives. For example, a four-hour chart and one-minute chart are the same, except the one-minute chart will include extra minute details that the four-hour chart can't see, and the four-hour chart will include measures that are so broad (are so far out on a one-minute chart) that they don't even fall within the lower chart's field of vision.

For two or three weeks I have been practicing more of a swing style of trading while using the time this frees up to pursue other interests. But, while this can result in much larger average returns per trade, after having now fully deciphered the stories this methodology has to tell, I've come to realize that it is not a reliable approach in terms offering consistent opportunities, and I plan to go back to implementing more of an intraday style beginning next week—while at the same time incorporating all that the swing trading signals have shown they have to offer.

For instance, USDJPY "should" be rising, but it has been falling for, like, seventeen days now. Instead of waiting for the inevitable reversal, as I have been doing for the last three weeks, I could have been reaping small yields all the way down.

It's only been over the last three days that I'm beginning to clearly see how to go about doing this. In fact, it's only today that the nine-day temporal support/resistance level has emerged as a useful tool—not to mention how it relates to the 24-hour and six-day price ranges. And it's only today that I suddenly see how the 90-minute price range fits in with the 4-, 14-, and 26-hour temporal support/resistance levels as well as the 2-, 4-, and 8-hour price ranges—even though I’ve been using all of these indicators the whole time.

Moreover, it was just yesterday that it became obvious to me that it's the eight- and sixteen-hour baselines that tell me when rates are breaking with or rejoining the twelve-day baseline which conveys the ultimate overall direction of price; and that as long as they are in conflict with this overall trend line, I should be trading against the dominant trend.