Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses

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Other pairs in a similar situation (hooking downward above a bearish day-to-day baseline) include AUDUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD, NZDJPY and NZPUSD.

However, NZDUSD's baseline looks as if it is attempting to turn north. At the moment, the same can be said of GBPUSD.

 

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NOTE: A baseline was added to my daily charts that supposedly tracks the weekly flow of exchange rates. If it is valid, it would mean I could theoretically enter positions at carefully selected levels, and never have to worry about the haphazard, helter-skelter, zigzagging, seesawing ebb and flow of price action—exiting the positions with a healthy yield several days later when the day-to-day trend reverses direction as opposed settling for a mere 25-pips or so worth of profit.

However, the following is a simple idea that might be even better:

If the weekly baseline is sloping upward, enter long positions when price bounces off the bottom of the daily price range below the weekly baseline and exit when it hits the top of the daily price range OR when it begins to retreat. Do the opposite if the weekly baseline is sloping downward.

Viewing the market from this perspective suggests that you might want to stay away from EURAUD given that the pair has gone virtually nowhere since June of this year. But on second thought, it is definitely bearish at the moment.

 

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Wednesday / September 9, 2020 / 4:00 AM PST

NOTE: A baseline was added to my daily charts that supposedly tracks the weekly flow of exchange rates. If it is valid, it would mean I could theoretically enter positions at carefully selected levels, and never have to worry about the haphazard, helter-skelter, zigzagging, seesawing ebb and flow of price action—exiting the positions with a healthy yield several days later when the day-to-day trend reverses direction as opposed to settling for a mere 25-pips or so worth of profit.

However, the following is a simple idea that might be even better:

If the weekly baseline is sloping upward, enter long positions when price bounces off the bottom of the daily price range below the weekly baseline and exit when it hits the top of the daily price range OR when it begins to retreat. Do the opposite if the weekly baseline is sloping downward.

I'm satisfied that I should now be able to integrate my view of intraday price movements with a newfound understanding of how price behaves on a longer-term basis, from more of a swing type style of trading or context.

That's something I thought I might never be able to do when I first began exploring strategies via this forum back in 2017. But with that having now been accomplished (I hope) I anticipate going back to recording my observations primarily in my own private notes...

 

[expiated]

Viewing the market from this perspective suggests that you might want to stay away from EURAUD given that the pair has gone virtually nowhere since June of this year. But on second thought, it is definitely bearish at the moment.

Good "second thought..."

 

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At the start of next week you are looking for the following opportunities...

• EURAUD - buying
• GBPJPY - buying (if the pair follows through on turning north)
• USDCAD - buying
• USDCHF - buying
• USDJPY - buying

• CADJPY - unclear (buying, if the pair follows through on turning north)
• EURJPY - unclear (remain on the sidelines)

• AUDJPY - selling
• AUDUSD - selling
• EURGBP - selling
• EURUSD - selling
• GBPUSD - selling
• NZDJPY - selling
• NZPUSD - selling

 

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Changes in opportunities...

• EURAUD - altered hourly configuration suggests that this pair is transitioning from neutral (NOT bullish) to slightly bearish
• GBPJPY - still buying (the pair was not following through on turning north, but was already bullish)
• USDCAD - might be transitioning from slightly bullish (or neutral) to slightly bearish
• USDCHF - witched from buying to selling
• USDJPY - has switched from buying to neutral

• CADJPY - still unclear
• EURJPY - still unclear, but currently leaning bullish

• AUDJPY - switched from selling to buying
• AUDUSD - switched from neutral (NOT selling) to buying
• EURGBP - still selling
• EURUSD - switched from selling to buying
• GBPUSD - switched from neutral (NOT selling) to buying
• NZDJPY - was more like convoluted than selling, but is now leaning bullish
• NZPUSD - leaning bullish, but is really more-or-less neutral

 

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MILESTONE

Tuesday / September 29, 2020 / 3:00 AM PST

Analysis...

• EURAUD - altered hourly configuration suggests that this pair is transitioning from neutral to slightly bearish (Good call...took a sharp term south.)
• GBPJPY - still buying (Spot on.)
• USDCAD - might be transitioning from slightly bullish (or neutral) to slightly bearish (Good call.)
• USDCHF - switched from buying to selling (Good call)
• USDJPY - has switched from buying to neutral (More-or-less true, though slightly bullish at the moment.)

• CADJPY - still unclear (Looks bullish to me now.)
• EURJPY - still unclear, but currently leaning bullish (Altered configuration indicates it turned bullish yesterday.)

• AUDJPY - switched from selling to buying (Spot on.)
• AUDUSD - switched from neutral to buying (Spot on.)
• EURGBP - still selling (Now neutral.)
• EURUSD - switched from selling to buying (Spot on.)
• GBPUSD - switched from neutral to buying (Spot on.)
• NZDJPY - was more like convoluted than selling, but is now leaning bullish (Spot on.)
• NZPUSD - leaning bullish, but is really more-or-less neutral (Definitely bullish now.)

Stick with this altered configuration. It is taking everything you've done up to this point and made it possible to not only get an accurate "bead" on current market bias/sentiment, but to also see the moment conditions start to change, integrating everything going on from the one-minute to four-hour point of views.

 

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EURGBP - still selling (Now neutral.)

EURGBP turned bullish as it cleared 0.9103.
GBPJPY and GBPUSD are now more-or-less neutral (in consolidation).
So is USDCAD.

 

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CAN I MAKE USE OF A WEEKLY BASELINE?

I’m curious to see what happens if I attempt to make trades in light of a moving average that, for the time being at least, I’m going to label as a weekly trend line. I’m currently short EURAUD, but I see that the weekly trend line is bullish, so I’m going to pocket my gains here (1.6442) and wait to enter a long position if and when the daily trend line turns north to realign itself with the weekly bias.

EURGBP saw its day-to-day sentiment turn bearish on or about September 24th and its weekly bias turn south on the same day. At 0.9127, the asset is just below the weakest level of “statistical resistance.” I’m therefore hoping to see the pair hinge downward and travel south for a significant distance, and in accordance with this forecast, have entered a short position with a relatively tight stop loss. EURUSD is in the same situation, so I might eventually short this pair as well. Ditto with NZDJPY.

USDCHF is in the exact opposite situation.

EURJPY recently turned bullish at the daily level and is currently located well above a downward sloping weekly baseline. So, should the pair manage to pull the weekly bias north as well, this might suggest that significant upward movement is soon to follow. I will therefore be monitoring it closely. GBPJPY looks like it is already doing this, and GBPUSD might eventually be following close behind.

 

[expiated]

EURGBP saw its day-to-day sentiment turn bearish on or about September 24th and its weekly bias turn south on the same day. At 0.9127, the asset is just below the weakest level of “statistical resistance.” I’m therefore hoping to see the pair hinge downward and travel south for a significant distance, and in accordance with this forecast, have entered a short position with a relatively tight stop loss.

I was stopped out of the above trade. So, now my plan is to try waiting until the pair drops below the yellow moving average before entering a short position and see if this works better.

EURGBP one-hour chart