Number of times price hits resistance/support then breaks

vingbel · Jun 8, 2009

Using the end of day price for the SPY, has anyone come up with the average number of times the price hits either support of resistance before it breaks through?

NihabaAshi · Jun 9, 2009

Quote from vingbel:

Using the end of day price for the SPY, has anyone come up with the average number of times the price hits either support of resistance before it breaks through?

There are dozens and dozens of different types of ways to designate something as support or resistance.

Use EliteTrader.com as an example...currently there are several threads involving support/resistance levels for the SPY or Emini ES.

Compare the numbers and they are different from one trader to another trader.

Therefore, it's best to first tell everybody how you designate what is support and resistance via an annotated chart example and explanation.

Something else to consider, what ever number you derived as the average number of times...

It will become meaningless because the price action is never the same.

Last of all, if you don't understand what causes price to break through a support or resistance level...

You won't be prepare to trade it when it occurs.

Mark

R. Raskolnikov · Jun 9, 2009

Bingo!

Quote from NihabaAshi:

Something else to consider, what ever number you derived as the average number of times...

It will become meaningless because the price action is never the same.

Last of all, if you don't understand what causes price to break through a support or resistance level...

You won't be prepare to trade it when it occurs.

Mark

superbull · Jun 9, 2009

Quote from vingbel:

Using the end of day price for the SPY, has anyone come up with the average number of times the price hits either support of resistance before it breaks through?

I didn't find rules that would tell you will the price break the level or not. And it's impossible really, there are no any canons on the market. That's why we have to risk entering the market.

But! It's in our hands to minimize risk and maximize gain!

vingbel · Jun 9, 2009

I don't disagree with anything being said, but I was still hoping to see some answers. I have an average number. It's not that hard to calculate using some simple parameters. Price action works best with understanding usual behavior.

If anyone wants to do a little math, here are the simplest parameters. Define support and resistant as end of day numbers that occur more than twice. After establishing those numbers, how many more times on average do we hit those numbers before they crack. That's about as simple as you can make it.

If you want to try other parameters, great. (Reversals after 2nd higher highs, etc.)

circadian · Jun 9, 2009

Quote from vingbel:

I don't disagree with anything being said, but I was still hoping to see some answers. I have an average number. It's not that hard to calculate using some simple parameters. Price action works best with understanding usual behavior.

If anyone wants to do a little math, here are the simplest parameters. Define support and resistant as end of day numbers that occur more than twice. After establishing those numbers, how many more times on average do we hit those numbers before they crack. That's about as simple as you can make it.

If you want to try other parameters, great. (Reversals after 2nd higher highs, etc.)

I watch for key breaks or bounces around the 3rd-4th test. That's just me.

bit · Jun 9, 2009

Quote from vingbel:

Using the end of day price for the SPY, has anyone come up with the average number of times the price hits either support of resistance before it breaks through?

42

vingbel · Jun 9, 2009

Quote from circadian:

I watch for key breaks or bounces around the 3rd-4th test. That's just me.

After that resistance or support is set by being hit twice and reversing. As a closing number.

For example: SPY closes at 930 twice, then you expect it to touch that number three or four more times (on average before breaking? Meaning end of day numbers.

Thanks for the input.

vingbel · Jun 9, 2009

Quote from bit:

42

Thanks for a humorous reply rather than the snarky sarcastic ones that those who don't have fun at this like to give.

And your reply makes a valid point. No sure bets in this game, but wanted some feedback.

I look at the third test as critical, but wanted to see if other people crunched numbers and came up with a different result.

pspr · Jun 9, 2009

Double bottoms hold
Triple bottoms fold