Nuclear Power Balls

If we’re talking pure cost basis natural gas beats everything at the moment.

I quoted $13.50 for pure solar, $36 for solar plus storage from Xcel in CO (https://www.greentechmedia.com/arti...solar-plus-storage-price-in-xcel-solicitation). The storage costs the same anywhere, and the difference in MWH/MW of installed solar between Boulder CO and Trenton NJ, for example, is less than 10% (you can play with the numbers at https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/pvwatts.php). The question remains, what is the levelized cost of the latest greatest nuclear technology even if it meets the wildest dreams of it's inventors? If it's more than $36, or if you want to go worst case with the NE and say somewhere in the $40 range, then it's really dead in the water and from a purely financial perspective there's no reason to waste more money on it. Again that's before we talk about the massive cost overruns that virtually anything associate with nuclear has historically seen (V.C. Summer anyone?) and the hidden costs of waste storage and the agencies that support nuclear. And it's before we take a look at both the solar and storage cost curves and realize we're talking about something that has dropped in price by 20% or more every year for a decade and the $36 price is a real, mature product being planted in the ground now. How much cheaper will it be when this nuclear tech is ready for full scale production? The solar industry learned this the hard way with all the venture backed material science companies in the 2007-9 timeframe that just got bypassed by that relentless cost curve. Solar may slow down in the price decreases but storage is just starting down that same curve.

If they have realistic sub-$30 levelized costs and reasonable expectations of a cost curve reduction I'd be all for it. I just not only haven't seen that, I haven't seen any pro-formas at all showing levelized cost. I'm not anti-nuclear at all, I still think we should be sinking pure research dollars into controlled fusion for example. I just think fission reactors are a dinosaur that's not worth pursuing purely on a cost basis. Funny, I seem to remember the nuclear and fossil fuel industry used to use that line, right up until they were no longer the lowest cost.....
 
Mmm, "storage". Why does electricity from the photovoltaics have to be stored, but nuclear not?

Just feed the solar power into the grid, and when there's no sun, there's no power to store.
To be realistic in order to get to 100% renewables you need storage to cover the intermittency. It's not nearly as much as the fossil fuel and nuclear lobby makes it out to be, but it is real. The great thing is that the cost curve is so steep and we're so far along it now that you can quote absolute worst case renewables plus storage and it's still the least cost option. And in reality you're correct, nuclear can't ramp up and down either and there's just as much intermittency in demand as in supply, so nuclear would need to either overbuild and dump power into the ground most of the time or have storage as well.
 
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If we’re talking pure cost basis natural gas beats everything at the moment.
Does it really though? The levelized cost of combined cycle gas is right around $38 (https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf). And keep in mind, any renewable project will happily sign a contract to deliver that power to you at the same price for 20 years. No natural gas plant would do that in a million years, if they did the contract price would be a heck of a lot higher than the $38 you pay for renewables plus storage. And again, there's no cost curve you can reasonably expect gas plants to come down for construction and O&M costs and hedging the gas out beyond a couple years is prohibitively expensive so there's no reliable cost curve on that either.
 
To be realistic in order to get to 100% renewables you need storage to cover the intermittency. It's not nearly as much as the fossil fuel and nuclear lobby makes it out to be, but it is real. The great thing is that the cost curve is so steep and we're so far along it now that you can quote absolute worst case renewables plus storage and it's still the lead cost option. And in reality you're correct, nuclear can't ramp up and down either and there's just as much intermittency in demand as in supply, so nuclear would need to either overbuild and dump power into the ground most of the time or have storage as well.

The way I see it, the renewables and the fission can work hand in hand to provide the first line of power.

The rods are going to fission at their rate. You cannot stop them or slow them down from doing their thing. So they feed the grid constantly. Then you have the renewables like solar. As the solars + nukes + wind turbines are feeding the grid, it is the NG and other fossil fuel plants that can control their own rate of feeding to make up for the lack of what the renewables cannot provide.

I would figure that would save on carbon emissions, and in fact that may be the way it is done now, just guessing. That is why I do not understand the need for "storing" the power. The grid should be fully co-op.

As the renewables lose their output due to lack of wind and sun, the NG plants can ramp up a bit to fill in the power demands. And the nuke rods (balls) will just keep doing their thing.
 
Mmm, "storage". Why does electricity from the photovoltaics have to be stored, but nuclear not?

Just feed the solar power into the grid, and when there's no sun, there's no power to store.

For more specialized and “Grid tie” applications, that can work. For more common single home systems, having a battery bank will provide power after a succession of cloudy days.
 
For more specialized and “Grid tie” applications, that can work. For more common single home systems, having a battery bank will provide power after a succession of cloudy days.

Oh, you mean on the home front? I was thinking of solar farms and the like from the commercial supply side.

Well, sure, if you got the solar stuff on your roof and a battery bank in your home, the idea is sound. Except it won't work because people are as wasteful with electricity as they are with food.

How many lights in your house right now are on but you are not using them? I bet most people in the USA cannot honestly answer "none", were they to be asked that question.

And that is just lights! Imagine all the other appliances. Like the stereo receiver they forgot was on. Or the DVD player...etc etc etc.
 
Oh, you mean on the home front? I was thinking of solar farms and the like from the commercial supply side.

Well, sure, if you got the solar stuff on your roof and a battery bank in your home, the idea is sound. Except it won't work because people are as wasteful with electricity as they are with food.

How many lights in your house right now are on but you are not using them? I bet most people in the USA cannot honestly answer "none", were they to be asked that question.

And that is just lights! Imagine all the other appliances. Like the stereo receiver they forgot was on. Or the DVD player...etc etc etc.

I question the value of solar farms at current efficiency rates except perhaps in the most specialized applications. However, on rooftops with a hot water system, especially in rural areas, solar can make a lot of sense.
 
To be realistic in order to get to 100% renewables you need storage to cover the intermittency. It's not nearly as much as the fossil fuel and nuclear lobby makes it out to be, but it is real. The great thing is that the cost curve is so steep and we're so far along it now that you can quote absolute worst case renewables plus storage and it's still the least cost option. And in reality you're correct, nuclear can't ramp up and down either and there's just as much intermittency in demand as in supply, so nuclear would need to either overbuild and dump power into the ground most of the time or have storage as well.
I liked pumped hydro personally where the geography allows it
 
I question the value of solar farms at current efficiency rates except perhaps in the most specialized applications. However, on rooftops with a hot water system, especially in rural areas, solar can make a lot of sense.
What "efficiency" are you questioning? Solar farms can generate electricity for a fraction of the cost of coal and cheaper than the cheapest fossil fuel or nuclear plants on a levelized per MWH basis. How is that not "efficient" in any universe?
 
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