NQH4 or ESH4?

Quote from dbphoenix:

I don't want to get into a dispute with Electric, but setting your stop according to your anticipated reward isn't going to do you any good unless (a) you have a target in mind and (b) you have figured the probabilities of the price reaching your target. You do have control over the target you select, even if it's totally unrealistic. However, you have no control over the probabilities.

Therefore, I suggest that you select your stop according to the probability of the entry you're taking.

Why did you go short at 95.25?
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I went short at 95.25 @ 9:50 a.m. because my head was up my a$$. I guess hindsight is always correct. MACD on DJI looked topped out and 1095 +/- .25 was a previous high the last three trading days. RSI was also above 70 at the time. I have always tried to keep it simple and didn't want to get to caught up in all the TA indicators that are available. I'm open for suggestions why others enter/exit a position and what they use for signals. But for me its pretty much watching previous days pivot points and support/resistance levels and then I'll throw in some indicators. Care to share what you look for?

Dominic
 
I've found it pretty hard to trade intraday using pre-set stops (arbitrary point values, as opposed to significant support/resistance points etc). If you are trying to catch tops and bottoms you're much better off waiting until you see some kind of blow-off action where stops are getting run, and then scaling in as price moves further against you, rather than just using some arbitrary # on an RSI or MACD.
 
LOL...There is plenty of time later for you and I to get into it :)

But actually you would be disputing John Sweeney who wrote the book "Maximum Adverse Excursion" not me...I am just the humble trader that uses it, IN SOME METHODOLOGIES, combined with velocity, degree of slope, ease of movement and momentum measurments...which would concur with what you are stating DB.

Michael B.



Quote from dbphoenix:

I don't want to get into a dispute with Electric, but setting your stop according to your anticipated reward isn't going to do you any good unless (a) you have a target in mind and (b) you have figured the probabilities of the price reaching your target. You do have control over the target you select, even if it's totally unrealistic. However, you have no control over the probabilities.

Therefore, I suggest that you select your stop according to the probability of the entry you're taking.

Why did you go short at 95.25?
More...
 
So I must assume that everyone here makes a tidy profit everyday? I have stated in previous messages that I'm down $1500 and plus some more today in the last week; anyone else care to share some real facts and numbers, not just opinions. Its interesting getting advice from others who just paper trade and never place any real funds on the line, yet have plenty of advice for you.

Anyone here clear $500+ a day off of Futures? How many contracts do others trade at a time? Anyone care to talk about their losses and what helped them get back to profitability? It seems that so many have all the answers yet can never share any REAL numbers.


Maybe I'll start to trade naked next week and see if that helps; couldn't hurt?
 
Dominic,

I have tried to be specific. I do not know your methodology. Your opening post was sort of a frustration with your results...and a comparison of the ES to the NQ.... I answered with a one-liner to keep it simple for DB (hehe lol)

If you need personal experience livations...I have blown up twice in my life and have lasted longer this time, around 3 years maybe 4 ...lost count. I attribute my longevity to 3 things:
  • Systemize my trading to avoid emotion
  • Hold down a job to give me social contact and to get detached from trading for a living, giving me the confidence and perspective I need. Also to not care so much...
  • Keeping a trade journal.

Michael B.



Quote from Dominic:

So I must assume that everyone here makes a tidy profit everyday? I have stated in previous messages that I'm down $1500 and plus some more today in the last week; anyone else care to share some real facts and numbers, not just opinions. Its interesting getting advice from others who just paper trade and never place any real funds on the line, yet have plenty of advice for you.

Anyone here clear $500+ a day off of Futures? How many contracts do others trade at a time? Anyone care to talk about their losses and what helped them get back to profitability? It seems that so many have all the answers yet can never share any REAL numbers.


Maybe I'll start to trade naked next week and see if that helps; couldn't hurt?
More...
 
Maybe I'll start to trade naked next week and see if that helps; couldn't hurt?


This might cause problems with Longshot and Gordon Gecko.

Michael B.
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

Maybe I'll start to trade naked next week and see if that helps; couldn't hurt?


This might cause problems with Longshot and Gordon Gecko.

Michael B.
More...

Ya, don't even start, they have a hard enough time keeping things straight between them selves. :D
 
Quote from Dominic:

I went short at 95.25 @ 9:50 a.m. because my head was up my a$$. I guess hindsight is always correct. MACD on DJI looked topped out and 1095 +/- .25 was a previous high the last three trading days. RSI was also above 70 at the time. I have always tried to keep it simple and didn't want to get to caught up in all the TA indicators that are available. I'm open for suggestions why others enter/exit a position and what they use for signals. But for me its pretty much watching previous days pivot points and support/resistance levels and then I'll throw in some indicators. Care to share what you look for?

Dominic
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Though you can use MACD and RSI if you like, probably the most legitimate reason you've given has to do with the previous highs.

However, if you use trendlines (in this case, from 12/3), you would have noted further R at around 97 (if you keep an eye on pivot levels, you would also have noted such levels at 1095 and 1097). You could either have maintained a wider stop, if that's within your risk tolerance, or you could have treated each setup as two separate and distinct setups, with separate and distinct stops for each.

IOW, play the 95 short, get stopped out, then wait for the next setup (as distinguished from hammering away at the same setup and getting stopped out over and over again), go short at 97, then make your profit for the day.

As for exact entry, I use the 1m, waiting for a retracement bar to suggest weakness. I then enter on the bar following that.
 
Quote from Dominic:

After looking over the different losing trades, I believe that I have had my stops set to close. It seems that the 1.75-2.0 points stops get taken out, then to move back in my favor; case in point, I went short today ESH4 @1095.25 and stop was taken out @ 1097.00 (high of day).

I'm going to trade 2 contracts with a 3.0 point stop. I will add 2 more contracts when trade has turned profit in my favor for a total of 4 contracts. Once I have an average of 4 contracts I would be happy with a 1.5 point profit.

Good or bad?

Dominic
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Case in point... (a) Arbitrary Stop... had price action been slightly different (or your stop slightly higher), the day would have been better. You were unlucky in that sense as your arbitrary stop was in just the wrong spot. This one has happened to all of us many times. (b) Should you have been even TRYING a short today? My view was that a short probably wasn't a good idea because the market was "apparently" embracing the seasonal up bias at "end of year" + TRINQ was only .27 this morning.
 
Quote from Dominic:

So I must assume that everyone here makes a tidy profit everyday? I have stated in previous messages that I'm down $1500 and plus some more today in the last week; anyone else care to share some real facts and numbers, not just opinions. Its interesting getting advice from others who just paper trade and never place any real funds on the line, yet have plenty of advice for you.
More...

You're not likely to get much of anything beyond the usual bumper-sticker trading advice unless you can provide a specific plan. Otherwise, anything offered will be no more than shots in the dark and, quite frankly, many of us are tired of providing the same old generally meaningless "advice".

So I'll make the same offer I've made so many times before. Set up a journal and explain your plan. Then post your trades. Only then will those who would provide the advice be able to see what you're trading, why you're trading it, and whether or not you're doing what your plan says you should do. Otherwise, you'll just get a lot of what somebody else would do, which means nothing unless they themselves have demonstrated trading competence (why, after all, should you pay any attention to what somebody else is doing unless you know they're doing better than you are?).

Nobody ever takes advantage of this offer, so you won't be the first if you decide not to take it up either. But then you'll end up having to do it all yourself, which you are of course welcome to do.
 
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