NQ Trades

I think you are having trouble pulling the trigger because you don't have a reliable system that generates a high degree of successful trades.

a couple of years ago, I had a great system that worked for two month. i could make as many as 200 trades a day without fear of losing money. I lost money two days out of the bunch. but circumstances changed (see my post) and I had to look for another system.

Since then I found a system that gave me 21 consecutive swing trades in a row and it petered out when the bear market started.

For the last two weeks, i,ve been watching a new system that has been making me money. Today, it clocked 25 successful long trades and no losers. Of course the market was up all day and consequently, I'm too much of a pessimist to think that i,ve found the holy grail.

This system has two things that I want,i.e, an automatic way to tell me which way to trade(long or short) and a clear buy or sell signal that only shows itself once or twice a day for the stocks that I am watching (which is at least a dozen). If this thing keeps working then I won't have any second thoughts about when to pull the trigger and even trade multiple entries. Till then I will continue to make sure that I don't lose my money.

I have read a lot of books that say you don't need a great system to make money. As far as I,m concerned that is a load of bull durham. What you don't need is a journal. When you find the right system you will know it.
 
Quote from hoodooman:


... I could make as many as 200 trades a day without fear of losing money...

... I found a system that gave me 21 consecutive swing trades in a row...

...Today, it clocked 25 successful long trades and no losers...
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Who cares? On August 14, I had a losing trade and so far it is the only losing trade of August (if memory serves me correctly). Does that make me a better trader? No. If anything it makes me a worse trader. Because sometimes when I know a trade is wrong and a reversal signal has been received, I will still hang on in the hope that the trade will somehow turn profitable or more profitable (it doesn't happen often, but it does happen). It may indeed, but it might go 4 or 5 points against me first, in which case I would have been much better off to just get out and take the other side instead of risking so much just to get a extra point. Other times, I pass on a good trades/setups because I am worried about the possibility that they might not work (more often than not they do end up working). That's a personality flaw, not something to take pride in. In my earlier days, I used to think that if I waited patiently enough for the right (read perfect) trade to come along, that I could escape even a single losing trade. But why bother? There are so many good opportunities that I would rather just take the good with the bad because in the long run I'll be much much better off anyway. I view perfectionism to be extremely counterproductive, and it is something that I wish that I didn't have an issue with it. It is a curse, not a blessing and only the deceived think otherwise. I have tried to channel my perfectionistic trait into the constant pursuit of becoming a better trader instead of on the actual trades themselves. Coupled with drive and determination, this has become an unstoppable force. However, I still have issues and I'm not trying to claim otherwise. I'm not in it exclusively for the money; I'm just trying to become a better trader and in the process a better person. I know this poster probably won't listen, but maybe someone else can learn a lesson from this. Also, I really didn't appreciate having this kind of thing posted to my journal (I think people know what I'm talking about), but I figured I might be able to use it for good. Thanks.
 
Quote from AFterburner:


... channel my perfectionistic trait into the constant pursuit of becoming a better trader instead of on the actual trades themselves. Coupled with drive and determination, this has become an unstoppable force. ....
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AFterburner: That's a great quote.

As I read your journal, I regularly find myself smiling and nodding because I see so much of myself in your thoughts, many times thinking to myself, "I know EXACTLY what he means!" It's a very mental game, the toughest I've ever tackled. But the challenge is also what keeps me in the game.

Thanks for posting -- and I look forward to more of your posts.

3dog
 
Quote from AFterburner:

I view perfectionism to be extremely counterproductive, and it is something that I wish that I didn't have an issue with it.
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Likewise. And that should be "... I didn't have an issue with."

I enjoy your journal.
 
Trade 1 (SLD 1295.5 BOT 1293.5) This was a good trade, except I only got a partial fill.

Trade 2 (SLD 1293 BOT 1290.5) My entry on this trade was kind of stupid. Basically, I wanted to continue Trade 1 but with the normal size. I'm not quite sure why I didn't just sell what I needed, but I didn't (I don't have too much experience dealing with partial fills). Anyway, the tape was pointing down and market action was strong when I entered. When I exited, the tape was no longer pointing down. I thought that my perception was very skewed after this trade, so I needed a half hour break to get focused again.

Trade 3 (BOT 1295 SLD 1298) This was a good trade. However, I was running out of time and also I felt that my entry would be tested so I took what I could get. Even though I felt like there was more upside potential, I felt like it was a good decision to get out (at the time).

I think that I handled Trade 2 pretty well. Managing that trade was very tricky (due to my terrible entry), and I think that I did an acceptable job. I'm conflicted about Trade 3. This seems to be a recurring issue (exiting because time is running out instead of based on market internals). I think that a major source of my fear stems from the following. On certain days, the market trends very well/strong after 3:30 EST and into the close. In the past I have been hurt very badly by trying to hold losing trades into the close. I should mention that these trades were contrary to the tape, and I was trying to fight the market. Consequently, subconsciously I think that I have developed a fear of holding after 3:30 EST. I'm a much better trader now, but I haven't dealt with this issue. So basically this is an example of me drawing the wrong conclusion when trying to learn from my mistakes. Instead of dealing with the root issue of fighting the tape, I developed a protectionary fear of holding after 3:30 EST. Now it has become an ingrained response that will be much harder to overcome. I need to overcome this fear because the final half hour can be extremely profitable when done right.
 

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Quote from AFterburner:

I should also note that I've had a bullish bias since Monday (I'm not just saying that to try to look good either) but as of now my bias is bearish. I don't really use my own personal bias for anything other than a template, so for the most part it's inconsequential. I can't distinguish whether this bearish bias is coming from the market or from my disappointment about today (it seems like a gut feeling), so I need to be extremely careful. The reason I say this is because gambling begets gambling.
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In the three trading days since I made this comment, the NDX is up approximately 50 points. I just wanted to resurrect this comment because I think that it has a very important message. When filled frustration and disappointment, I think it is very easy to be tricked into changing opinions. This becomes obvious when I consider what happened on that Thursday afternoon. I had a long trade that wasn't working the way I thought that it should. After I exited, the market continued to go down, so I incorrectly assumed that this was confirmation and proceeded to go short. While I managed to come to my senses and exit, the bearish bias continued to linger. However, by Sunday night my bias had changed to neutral to slightly bullish. This convinced me that my short bias was coming from frustration rather than the tape. Thankfully, I didn't do anything stupid in the interim (mostly because I've been trying to trust the tape).
 
I'm pretty happy with how today turned out.

Trade 1 (BOT 1306 SLD 1307.5) The tape was pointing up, and I was anticipating a new high for the day. However, I got a really bad feeling about this trade, and got out immediately.

Trade 2 (SLD 1307.5 BOT 1308) In my haste to exit Trade 1, I accidentally sold twice. As soon as I realized this error, I put in an OCA combination for 1307/1308, and 1308 got hit first (now I've had two losing trades in August). This trade didn't bother me at all, I just didn't want to expose myself because of a mistake, and so I was quick to exit.

Trade 3 (SLD 1305 BOT 1304.5) The tape had changed and was now pointing down. The market action was acting strange though, so I got out.

Trade 4 (SLD 1305 BOT 1300.5) Everything seemed to be OK, so I decided to continue Trade 3. I tried to give this trade as much room to maneuver as possible, but it just didn't seem to be working out.

Trade 5 (SLD 1302.5 BOT 1302) My entry wasn't very good, but I felt like the tape was still indicating down. The market went to 1305.5, before coming back down to 1302. I decided that I had better not risk it, so I got out.

Trade 6 (SLD 1302.5 BOT 1297) Everything seemed to be OK, so I decided to continue Trade 5. There was just too much support though, so I had to exit at 1297.

Today's action was somewhat strange. The best way that I can think to describe it is that I felt like I was cross-eyed. Seriously. I kept getting really confused by what I was seeing, so I just had to trust the tape. It was almost like flying blind. It worked pretty well though. My management on Trade 4 was really sloppy, but at no time did I risk a loss on the trade, so I guess that it's OK. Overall, I'm happy with my performance today.
 

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Unfortunately, I had some things to attend to and was unable to trade until after 3:00 EST. Fortunately, it looks like I didn't miss too much.

Trade 1 (BOT 1311.5 SLD 1312.5) This was a good trade, but I just didn't have the heart for trading today.

It doesn't look like I'll be trading tomorrow. Everything is OK, I just have some things I still need to attend to. My goal for this week was to successfully increase my position size, and I think that I have already accomplished this. Anyway, I'm looking forward to getting back into the swing of things on Monday.
 

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Quote from trade4succes:

Do you know other people who make just two losing trades in three weeks? Time to size up?

Keep it going!
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I increased my position size to 15 contracts sooner than I anticipated (thankfully it seems to be working out), and that's enough for right now. Thanks for the support though.
 
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