This weekend my confidence about my theory continued to build to almost scary levels. Sunday night I wrestled with taking a position trade all night; but decided that my confidence was too high (I wouldn't be able to accept a loss). I forced myself not to trade until 9:45 EST because I wanted to see what the tape had to say without jumping right in. Finally I went short at 1259. At 1255, I was sensing danger (kind of like when the hair on the back of your neck sticks up). I got an exit signal at 1250 NDX, but I didn't get out until 1252 (I had a moment of clarity where I remebered what happened in the same situation on Friday and I didn't want to give up my profits again). I decided to take a break and analyze things. The NDX continued to plunge to 1240. The tape was pointing down, but it just seemed too easy. Way too easy. When it came back to 1247, I went short again. Wow! Nothing like being in a trade to clarify the tape for me. I quickly got out at 1246. Something didn't sit right so I figured I had better quit for the day. Right now (1:00 EST) I am absolutely dying to go short at 1255. It is a compulsion almost like a drug addict would feel. I am writing this to try to divert my thoughts from trading. As soon as I submit this post I will be leaving the premises so that I can't trade anymore today. Anyway, all in all I had a good day, and I'm proud of myself for having the strength to honor discipline and my better judgment.
NQ Trades
- Thread starter AFterburner
- Start date
I came back to see how the market would close. What I see frustrates me. My ability to see things in the tape (if not just a series of coincidences) far exceeds my ability to trade. It is so unbelievably frustrating. It's like I'm trying to duplicate a photograph by painting it from memory. Except that my hands aren't skilled enough, my eyes aren't sharp enough, and my mind isn't vivid enough to do the job. The finished product doesn't even resemble the original. Not to mention the war that goes on between myself and the market. Take today for example. I was so convinced about going short that I didn't even consider the possibility of going long. I was so focused on my plan that when the market action was contrary (even though it appeared to be confirmatory) I didn't know what to do except to sit out. Maybe the problem was that even though what I wanted to happen was happening, it wasn't happening the way that it should have in that situation. When I was looking for trades, I was only looking for what I wanted to see (or thought I saw), not what the market was actually doing. I just wish that I could remove my own needs/fears/biases from the process so that there is no difference between what I am seeing and what I am doing. My execution skills are severely lacking if not totally nonexistant. I think that the major problem is that I don't trust my tape reading enough. For everything that I see in the tape I am always looking for confirmation somewhere else (especially an appeal to my logical nature). I wish that I could just throw all my charts, news, and everything else out the window because they are dragging me down into the abyss. But emotionally I still feel like I need them. I've managed to wean everything down to what I feel is the bare minimum, but I'm still not sure that's good enough. I probably just need time to let my trading skills develop because this is a transitory period. It's a frustrating process though.
I should probably clarify this. I was at war with myself. There was a battle going on between what I wanted to do and what I knew that I should do. At this point there was no long trade in my mind; it was either short (fight the market) or no short (don't fight the market). Thankfully I chose not to fight because that is always futile.
It occurred to me this morning that I am making things a lot harder than they have to be. Anyway, after what had happened yesterday afternoon, I was starting to question my short bias. I was actually thinking of starting to look for a long trade. I was extremely frustrated that the market seemed like it could never have a down day where it stayed down. I was starting to give up on my position trade (even though I had just been trading around it anyway and using it as a theory). Last night I had I dream that the market was down 42 points, but I attributed that to wishful thinking. When the market started going down today, I thought that maybe today would be what I had been looking for for so long. I wanted to absolutely sure before I went short again though. I waited and watched. The tape was pointing down (but it did that yesterday and look what happened). At approximately 1:40 EST when it was at 1251 I saw that things were about to start to pick up. I wanted to wait until the NDX had made a new low for the day, and when it did I went short at 1248. At this point I told myself to calm down and that I would just hold for the afternoon instead of trying to grab every single 2 point reversal. I was very confident that the NDX would close below 1240, and my initial target was 1237 (right below the 8/27 low). I also thought that the NDX would close right around it's low for the day, but that was for information purposes only. I started to get really frustrated around 3:00 EST because the NDX was hovering right around 1240. Finally I realized that this was a good sign because if it was going to go back up it would have bounced off this support level. I figured that when it finally penetrated 1240 NDX that the trade would be good for an additional 10 points. Since I don't like to hold after 3:30 EST, I took a profit at 1232.5 because it was a nice profit, not because I received an exit signal. Today was a really good day in terms of not letting my frustration and impatience get in the way of a good trade. Right now I'm feeling a lot more relaxed than I usually do. However, I am really upset with myself for not holding this trade overnight, but like I've said before I'm in no state to be managing position trades right now. I'm anticipating a gap down tomorrow morning, which I know will make me even more frustrated. Therefore my main goal for right now is not to slip into step 2 (I feel entitled to what I missed which of course leads to a massive losing trade). Hopefully, I can successfully deal with these issues. When I went to do a print screen on my executions I saw that it is at 1219 right now (4:10 EST). This is going to be really hard for me to get over. I can't believe how awful seeing this has made me feel. I might not be able to trade tomorrow.
Being right and not capitalizing on it is one of the most painful feelings that I have ever felt. I cannot believe how sharply my mood changed in a mere 30 minutes. When I exited my position, I was feeling pretty good about myself. At this moment I feel absolutely crushed. It's hard to describe the utter contempt I'm feeling for myself. I tried to follow what I thought was the conservative/disciplined approach, and I have been slaughtered for it. I never want to exit a trade without an exit signal again. Even as I'm writing this, I'm know that I am slipping into my step 2. I don't know what other choices I have. The fact that I made $3000 today does nothing to console me; the money has nothing to do with it. I've been waiting for this opportunity for a couple of months and now that it's here I have totally blown it. The worst part is that I feel compelled to salvage the situation. I'm sorry to have to post this, but I don't know what else to do.
AFterburner,
Fascinating journal.
I personally know 2 great traders...watched them trade in person...both act like this with almost every trade...
like in artist...using their trades to paint whom they are.
I hope you have something in place to keep things (emotions) under control...exploiting them when needed...
they do and the reason why they have been very successful for so many years.
Fascinating.
Reminder to anyone reading this...
successful traders know themselves...they embrace themselves (flaws and all) as they interact with the markets.
NihabaAshi
I am not a great trader, but I can't live like that.
Back in December, I had a perfect short setup and took it. Trade started off well, but then there was a quick up reaction, just enough to take out my stop. Then the NQ tanked about 20 pts. I had been stopped at the high tick of the day. Boy was I pissed.
I lost 10 NQ points on the next trade. Usually I write a few things about the entry and exit in my log. Next to this one I just wrote, "don't trade when you're upset!"
Because I trade the same instrument as you(NQ), use the same methodology(tape reader), and even make many of the same trades, this journal is eerie. Not since Commisso's "Tao of Publias" has a thread had me so riveted. Great work. Thank's for sharing.
"And every one of them words rang true
And glowed like burnin' coal
Pourin' off of every page
Like it was written in my soul from me to you,
Tangled up in blue"
Pete,
It's definetly a tough act to follow.
As one friend (non-trader) once said to me...
Traders could easily be misdiagnosed as bipolar
My friend made the comment not to be offensive.
The comment was simply made after my friend had observed the emotional roller coaster of a particular trader.
She came to the conclusion that this emotional rollercoaster was feeding an unconscious thirst...
embracing and acknowledging that thirst...then feeding it via something else outside our trading (controlling those emotions)...
that's when good traders become great traders.
Reason why I like this journal...it's the best read at ET for such emotions.
Trading truly is an art form because we as traders...perform and act like artists...
emotions and all.
NihabaAshi
I'm feeling a lot better right now. One thing that I like to do after a particularly bad day is to drive through a really poor neighborhood. As bad as I feel or as bad as I think things are, I'm doing a lot better than I could be doing. However, the real reason that I do this is to remind myself that I am not that far removed from these people or this situation. It's important to emphasize that I do not have an elitest attitude; I identify with these people and realize that our financial circumstances are really the only thing that separates us. As a trader, I am only a few bad decisions (more accurately a series of compounding bad decisions) away from this condition. However, I will do everything in my power to prevent this from happening, and the only thing that can prevent me from prospering is myself. At this time I would like to share something that gives me encouragement after a bad day.
The race is not to the swift or the battle to the strong, nor does food come to the wise or wealth to the brilliant or favor to the learned; but time and chance happen to them all.
The race is not to the swift or the battle to the strong, nor does food come to the wise or wealth to the brilliant or favor to the learned; but time and chance happen to them all.