Oh and P.S. thanks for all of your help along the way directly and indirectly.
NQ - Supply & Demand
- Thread starter eminiman414
- Start date
And what prevented you from seeing all this at the beginning? Did you approach trading with any preconceptions? Is there anything you could say to a beginner at this point, or is it necessary for each to find his own way?
Hmm good questions. Honestly I think it was improper focus. I felt as if I was focused but focusing more on the left side of the chart as opposed to the right side. How price bounced around just wasn't what I was looking at. I knew it ticked up, down, and at different rates, but how the ticker bounced created certain types of emotions in me. Like a rapid rejection and a long bar would have an oh shit type of effect on me bc my focus wasn't on the right tick. Had I been focused on the behavior I would have noticed the rejection and price rapidly moving in the other direction and that's really all that happened. The long bar didn't have some sort of significant meaning. Also going in with the idea that every little tick isn't important kind of made me not focus so much on the price. Now I watch price with serious intent. I watch every tick however not every tick is necessarily super important. I think thinking in terms of dollars and all of the potential clouded my mind a bit as well. I won't lie I want to make a boat load of money in general (not just from trading) and I think in a sense that has hindered my overall progress.
My father trades/invests so I really didn't have any misconceptions coming in. But def knew it wasn't going to be easy.
As far as saying anything to a beginner I am not necessarily sure I would be ready to say anything as I am not currently successful. I feel I am on my way and have had an a ha moment with regards to how I will study, observe, detect changes in behavior, and characterize what leads to successful movements in price that can be capitalized on and in that regard it's really as simple as watch the price.
Beginners commonly focus on the money. This is why they view every counter-tick as a danger signal, as a looming loss, as confirmation that they were wrong, as if when and where they entered made the least bit of difference to the market. On the other hand, if they focused on trading well, the money would be there as a matter of course.
Trading well, however, is a consequence of developing a thoroughly-tested, consistently-profitable trading plan, which few beginners want to do.
My goal now is what I'll call insane, sharp, intensely focused price research centered around behaviors;the behavior of every reversal and the behavior of every retracement after a breakout of some sort or after a change in stride as well as the general up and down movements in price. What type of actions/reactions lead to the best results? What are the results? How often do these "things" take place? etc. etc. Then just trade the behaviors that yield the best results based off the research.
Hey DB, when if at all could/should volume be incorporated? Or could volume sort of be assumed based on the activity or inactivity of the ticker? If the ticker is moving as slow as molasses could one assume volume is decreasing. I say this bc for shits and giggles I threw volume onto my chart after observing today and it was interesting to see vol and associating it with what I observed with the movement of price.
It's up to you. If you're watching price move, it's not all that difficult to approximate the volume. And the money is made according to whether price moves up or down, not by how many people are involved. This is most likely why intraday volume wasn't even considered back in the day but was considered when viewing daily charts.
One can be misled by churning if one isn't watching volume, but if one knows what to look for in price, it doesn't matter. And it's one less distraction.
Churning?
chart I found from about a year ago. Thought it was interesting to check out.
Present day I've made much improvements. I think I understand "the flow" now I am just trying to put all of the information together into a plan. I am not going to lie sometimes I feel like just winging it and go with that flow. Trying to devise a plan I've always struggled with.
Somethings I have been in tune with through this observation period are definitely price rejections. Another is the idea of scratching only when definitive action or reaction happens after a potential entry. If price doesn't give me a reason to exit even if it's a point to 2 points away I am no sure if it's wise to exit. I suppose that has to be tested. I originally said I was going to go with retracements after breakouts but after this last round of observation I am not too sure I like that idea unless price is moving sideways during the intraday session then breaks out and retraces. I am also much more comfortable with the 50% area and looking for an entry around there. I suppose until I really decide on what I gravitate toward more I will keep observing. I know I should master one set up first but I really think I need a reversal and a retracement setup. Price rejection at a specified level is pretty plain to see, is to me a definitive action (for the most part) and would be silly not to take just bc my strategy is something different. Since I enjoy following the bouncing ball maybe some type of "surfing" strategy implementing SLA with SARs at certain areas if behavior dictates. On with the replays.
Somethings I have been in tune with through this observation period are definitely price rejections. Another is the idea of scratching only when definitive action or reaction happens after a potential entry. If price doesn't give me a reason to exit even if it's a point to 2 points away I am no sure if it's wise to exit. I suppose that has to be tested. I originally said I was going to go with retracements after breakouts but after this last round of observation I am not too sure I like that idea unless price is moving sideways during the intraday session then breaks out and retraces. I am also much more comfortable with the 50% area and looking for an entry around there. I suppose until I really decide on what I gravitate toward more I will keep observing. I know I should master one set up first but I really think I need a reversal and a retracement setup. Price rejection at a specified level is pretty plain to see, is to me a definitive action (for the most part) and would be silly not to take just bc my strategy is something different. Since I enjoy following the bouncing ball maybe some type of "surfing" strategy implementing SLA with SARs at certain areas if behavior dictates. On with the replays.