NQ - Supply & Demand

It all hit me last night and while I thought I had observed enough to go into creating a trading plan I think I will go back to observing for a little longer with more of this newly found thought process.

I'll tell you how I go to this point. What I did was watched replays at 4x the speed. What that did for me was it speed up the faster movements of the ticker but when there was any kind of "extensive" pause or slowing down that jumped out at me a lot more then at 1x. Then I went back to view price at 1x the speed and obv it slowed everything down, but i felt more relaxed and observant. My problems previously i think were that the pace was "too slow" originally when going through my observations over the last year and a half that i would lose focus and just revert my attention to the bar. I don't mean the pace was too slow that I knew what was going on but more along the lines of maybe a bit of boredom so I would look away from the computer or my mind would wander a bit. Jacking up the speed almost made it more exciting if that makes sense. Now however being back at 1x I am excited bc I think i have an idea of whats going on now lol.

May seem weird how I came to these conclusions but just sharing how i did it.

Goal 1 now is to observe price with this new info
Goal 2 would be to formulate a plan based off these types of behaviors. I previously said I would add trader behavior to the plan, but that was all just words on paper. Now I have an idea of what that means.
 
When you take your emotions out of the game, other [traders'] emotions become visible. When we are focused exclusively on our own emotions (as we often are), the emotions of others tend to be obscured. When we make ourselves neutral, however, we find that the canvas suddenly becomes blank and the emotions of others begin to appear.

Larry Phillips
 
dbphoenix said:
When you take your emotions out of the game, other [traders'] emotions become visible. When we are focused exclusively on our own emotions (as we often are), the emotions of others tend to be obscured. When we make ourselves neutral, however, we find that the canvas suddenly becomes blank and the emotions of others begin to appear.

Larry Phillips
More...

Amazing. It makes perfect sense.
 
dbphoenix said:
When you take your emotions out of the game, other [traders'] emotions become visible. When we are focused exclusively on our own emotions (as we often are), the emotions of others tend to be obscured. When we make ourselves neutral, however, we find that the canvas suddenly becomes blank and the emotions of others begin to appear.

Larry Phillips
More...

Did some more observation today w my new thought process and it was great. Something else that I was thinking about after observing was in terms of entering the market. I think one to a certain extent has to disassociate themselves from the price at which they entered. With regards to this quote one's entry could potentially have some sort of emotional attachment that comes along with it bc in your mind it is "yours" Sorta like a significant other. That in turn can bring about a loss of focus and in essence affect a traders ability to judge behavior. It can shift the focus away form behavior and more on price in relation to where one entered. Again just like everything else discussed the market and those trading within the market you choose do not care nor know where you entered. I feel like not disassociating myself from the entry could hinder scratching a trade bc the focus isnt on the behavior but rather the entry point. Obv you need to know where you entered bc well no one wants to lose their shirt, but I can't be attached to it.

I think when to enter is almost more important then where to enter. I was previously focusing on retracements, placing my order one point above a bar within the retracement which is fine but was that the right time to do it based on traders behavior? Based on the stride? Based on the speed, duration, and extent of the moves? Based on the high, low, halfway point of the moves? Activity of the ticker? Are we at a price that was previously shown to be important by buyers or sellers? Detecting when the shifts in supply and demand occur is more important then focusing on any old retracement in and of itself. I guess what I'm trying to say is if one can detect the shifts in supply and demand the entry price (within reason) really doesnt matter. If a shift occurs and it is a "real shift" price should continue in the direction of the trade which you entered.
 
Well said Eminiman, I've experienced that occasionally, that sense of literally feeling the PA was going one way or the other, certainly not enough to trade, at least at this point but intriguing enough to want more. If I understand what you're saying its more than being mechanical ,This isn't a hunch, more of dare I say, being in the flow. Now I'm sounding a little like a head case, but maybe some day...
 
right,

"When" is what professionals do: they enter with market phase

"Where" is what amateurs do: they rely on signals generated by colorful indicators or exact "spot" to enter
 
boru said:
Well said Eminiman, I've experienced that occasionally, that sense of literally feeling the PA was going one way or the other, certainly not enough to trade, at least at this point but intriguing enough to want more. If I understand what you're saying its more than being mechanical ,This isn't a hunch, more of dare I say, being in the flow. Now I'm sounding a little like a head case, but maybe some day...
More...

From what I've been observing there is a definite flow to price movement. I'd say combining the changes in flow/behavior, w a bit of the mechanical SLA (although that doesn't have to be mechanical) and adding in AMT are the beginnings to a well devised plan.
 
Using this journal for now just to post my thoughts and for those interested to comment, pick them apart, and just discuss. This is in no particular order.

I. Behavior
Pace of the ticker
*accelerations, decelerations, pauses, dead stops and the grouping of the changes/shifts in how the ticker behaves.
example: a move up toward a previous swing or a level of R dictated by AMT that begins to slow down to the point where buyers just don't seem interested, then a rapid rejection in the opposite direct at or around those points.

Waves
*speed, duration, and extent of the various up and down moves
example waves beginning to become equidistant/overlapping showing either a decrease in momentum, the beginning of sideways movement, or if the waves are large enough, a trading range.

II. Stride of price
*Track with supply and demand lines (either drawn or in ones head)
*Track the strength of supply or demand by the fanning up or down of these lines
*Any breaks of these lines indicate a change in the immediate stride of price. Look to other pieces of the puzzle such as waves, the pace, highs, lows, halfway points, or AMT to help determine if it is just a change in stride in the same direction or if a reversal is more likely.
*Also be aware of HOW the lines are broken. Do we crawl across the line or break with force? Keep an eye on this during observation as to which leads more to a continuation or a reversal.


III. Highs, Lows, and Halfway Points
*I consider these more as tests of strength or weakness
* A successful test/rejection of a 50% level in a down move indicates a possibility for continued weakness, where a test/rejection of a swing low indicates a possibility for strength coming in. Again adding this in with what was stated above.

IV. AMT
* Are we trending, ranging, in a trend channel?
* Based on the levels created by the Traders where are we likely to head? If we reject the top of a trend channel where is price likely to go? Does it get there? What do we do if it does or doesn't etc etc?

I have stopped thinking about money, about points made or lost, and just focusing on these points above. I found myself thinking too much about how much was made or lost, make a trade winner or loser and see the account change as opposed to just staying focused in the game. I had a tendency to feel relieved to a certain extent as well. I have come to learn that relief is not a neutral feeling and to be successful with this approach I must be completely neutral.

One last note is we can not know the future, but we do know the past and with the tools that DB has helped with we can have a good idea of what is happening right now, the key then is preparation. Preparation pre-market and staying prepared during the intraday session for any and all possibilities. Focusing on behavior I believe will help keep me on my toes.

Thanks for reading.
 
Given that it's been a little over a year since you started with this (though not with the intensity that you've worked since moving to ET), is there anything you want to add to what you wrote above with regard to where you are and the progress you've made?
 
In terms of where I am...I am in observation/study mode but this time around (even from the time a month or so ago) the time spent observing is completely different. My chart is 100% clean no lines at all, no art projects connecting swing points all while doing that taking my eye off of price. I started the learning experience in general Aug of 2012 and from then up until the past weekend the learning just didnt feel right and I even said it to my now ex gf lol. I said flat out I am putting all this work in and it's just not right (studying indicator settings etc. and even studying the material over at TL). I was missing the boat. With what hit me this past weekend I believe that it won't be long before I really gain an understanding of whats going on. My focus is on how price moves, not that a retracement has to be at least x amount of bars, has to break a line etc. I think even in this last weekend I've made huge jumps. Not every "two bar retracement" is a retracement that should be taken. I think a true retracement that works out to be successful has a particular type of character to it, same goes for successful reversals there is a certain type of behavior associated with it etc etc. I mean even with understanding the behavior not every trade will be a winner but you sure as hell won't lose often and won't lose too many points understanding these behaviors. What helped also was viewing the moves as one person buying and one person selling. Like Jordan (up) vs. Bird (down).

If you put a one minute chart next to a 5 min chart, a 5 min next to a 15 min chart etc the only thing that really changes is how far into the past you can see and the "bars" closer to the right of the screen are longer. The price ticker on all of those chart displays will bounce the same way you'll just see more or less bars depending on the interval. The behavior is the same. Not sure if that answered your question lol.
 
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