NQ Price Action Journal

dbphoenix · Apr 9, 2014

niko said:
We are starting the day in an uptrend, actually in the context of an up TC, currently the top of the TC is around 50, but perhaps bulls will try to make it to 67, so we will see.

In case this upmove doesnt hold, then as we are in some sort of hinge BO we could expect bears to make an attempt at 30 in the look for followers and from there all the way to 500.

Too much mess. Clarity. Plot a daily chart with the trend channel mean.

niko · Apr 9, 2014

dbphoenix said:
Too much mess. Clarity. Plot a daily chart with the trend channel mean.

Here it is

And yes, much more clarity.

niko · Apr 9, 2014

Today was a very interesting day, I am working of refurbishing my plan based on the recent exercise, and today helped me make up my mind regarding REVs. I will review the openings of the days I have in record in order to define my REV rule in the plan before coming out with something that I will actually use in RT.

niko · Apr 15, 2014

This is what I see before the open.

niko · Apr 21, 2014

Prepwork.

We either run out of buyers and the downtrend stays intact or buyers take control and push above the upper limits of the daily TC.

At the moment the mean seems to be 32, there were no more buyers above 43, but there were no more sellers below 93 so we need to see what happens as we revisit those levels.

tiddlywinks · Apr 21, 2014

niko said:
Prepwork.

We either run out of buyers and the downtrend stays intact or buyers take control and push above the upper limits of the daily TC.

At the moment the mean seems to be 32, there were no more buyers above 43, but there were no more sellers below 93 so we need to see what happens as we revisit those levels.

IMO, there is something "missing" with this prep work.

We either run out of buyers and the downtrend stays intact or buyers take control and push above the upper limits of the daily TC.

The market will go down or the market will go up. hhmmmm.

there were no more buyers above 43, but there were no more sellers below 93 so we need to see what happens

One does need to know when to hold em, fold em, or sit out. No question.
But 50 points in and of itself can be a range of an extended duration worth $1000 per contract high to low... no question and no doubt opportunities do and will exist within.

I don't mean to poop on your work. Just to highlight some glaring issues which may help with tweaking.

niko · Apr 21, 2014

tiddlywinks said:
IMO, there is something "missing" with this prep work.

We either run out of buyers and the downtrend stays intact or buyers take control and push above the upper limits of the daily TC.

The market will go down or the market will go up. hhmmmm.

there were no more buyers above 43, but there were no more sellers below 93 so we need to see what happens

One does need to know when to hold em, fold em, or sit out. No question.
But 50 points in and of itself can be a range of an extended duration worth $1000 per contract high to low... no question and no doubt opportunities do and will exist within.

I don't mean to poop on your work. Just to highlight some glaring issues which may help with tweaking.

Thanks for your comments.

I was trying to point out that given the position where we were at the open, one could expect either a BO or a REV, it was a REV.

The levels were far away, but were the ones that I thought would matter the most, I could be always wrong, for example I did not notice 20 as an important level, but it was.

43 was the level to focus on after the open, and it was an interesting level, there was some overshoot, that might not encourage some to take a REV, but there was a RET right after and that was an opportunity to enter.

An interesting thing to highlight was today mean reversion, as we just couldn't escape the gravity force around 32, at least not before 11:00.

game · Apr 23, 2014

I see your last entry was prep for Monday, but no follow up since. Are you on holiday? Keeping you accountable

niko · Apr 23, 2014

game said:
I see your last entry was prep for Monday, but no follow up since. Are you on holiday? Keeping you accountable

Hey, thanks.

Well, after a lot of screentime in the company of Db and the rest of the crew and the whole scratch- reentry exercise I decided it was time to turn this into a business

.

I am currently defining the last details of my trading plan before giving "live" a try in May, so I don't think I will be posting much more until the plan is ready. Thanks for keeping me accountable.

BTW, I see you are navigating the MP waters, I read Dalton book, but did not find anything ground braking, have you found anything of value so far?

game · Apr 23, 2014

niko said:
Hey, thanks.

Well, after a lot of screentime in the company of Db and the rest of the crew and the whole scratch- reentry exercise I decided it was time to turn this into a business .

I am currently defining the last details of my trading plan before giving "live" a try in May, so I don't think I will be posting much more until the plan is ready. Thanks for keeping me accountable.

BTW, I see you are navigating the MP waters, I read Dalton book, but did not find anything ground braking, have you found anything of value so far?

Cool. All the best. Few people are willing to risk failing publicly (although being anonymous on a forum does make it a win-win of sorts). So keep us updated on your successes, trials and tribulations.

The most valuable idea that arose from my reading of Dalton was this idea of defining traders according to their time horizon. Breaking down Wyckoff's composite operator into multiple personalities is a valuable technique. It helps determine when to load up for the non normal profit distributions offered by the market.