NQ Price Action Journal

Sellers pushed but were unable to get pass the 50% mark at 37, from where buyers pushed with conviction until they reached the 50% mark of the down move from 730.

At the moment we are stuck between 50%s in what so far looks like an uptrend stuck in a hinge turned TR since 7:45.


Levels to pay attention to:

70 area
60
40 area
 
Nice trend day, but a lesson for the future. Sellers were a PITA all the way to the top, not yielding generating multiple scratches and a couple of failed entries in the opposite direction along the way.

I think I managed scratching well, there are still things to get better at, but I will wait until I complete at least 50 so I can have a general view of it.

The scratching log is attached as usual .
 
Still see strength here, we are inside an UT TC, and holding above the midline. Pace has slowed and we should be cautious if buyers are unable to make a HH and reach the top, perhaps chop is awaiting us or perhaps sellers wanna test the waters on the other side of the midline with a trip attempt to the bottom.

The nice thing is that they can only do 3 things, go up, go down or stay there. Lets see!
 
niko said:
Still see strength here, we are inside an UT TC, and holding above the midline. Pace has slowed and we should be cautious if buyers are unable to make a HH and reach the top, perhaps chop is awaiting us or perhaps sellers wanna test the waters on the other side of the midline with a trip attempt to the bottom.

The nice thing is that they can only do 3 things, go up, go down or stay there. Lets see!
More...

So they didn't make a HH, they managed to get into congestion the whole morning and tested the waters, reaching the bottom. Now the channel is history and they are pushing down, perhaps towards the bottom of the TR (Green area)
 
BTW, given that I have completed the scratching exercise goal, I will review the whole thing now and will come to conclusions.

Next step, reentry.
 
niko said:
BTW, given that I have completed the scratching exercise goal, I will review the whole thing now and will come to conclusions.

Next step, reentry.
More...

Here is what I found regarding the scratching exercise, is more profound that just exiting the trade is coming to the realization that a loss is a loss even if one still has the trade open, but there are some loses that will show in your account statement and some that will be hidden, but that were there nonetheless.

So instead of waiting price to go against you 4 points (assuming your LSH or LSL is there), why not scratch, lose only a point and reevaluate the trade, if the PA still looks good, re-enter, you can reenter 4 times before you get the amount of loss you would get otherwise. Now, at this stage, assuming some stupidity in my head has left the building perhaps I don't need the 4 scratches to realize my trade is kaput.
 
Se we are back inside the down TC and still within the context of the larger TR. Overnite we have formed an even smaller TC (only 16 points), although I dont think is operable, at least not from my perspective is there and is what price is doing at the time of this post, going down very slowly, in sync with the larger context.

We are still under the 50% of the previous upswing, but still over the 50% of the whole trend from 3601. One curious fact, the 50% of the downswing from 700 is 680, the MP of the whole range, and we are below them so weakness seems like the tone of the morning. But we can get surprises as always.

Places to focus:

Taking all the stuff away, I would focus on the MP at 680 and the bottom at 640.
 
So, the small hourly TC provided some context, sellers were just not that into it. and gave up around 10:00 seems like the news motivated the buyers a little more, at least enough to get to 80.

I am starting a new phase today, the re-entry one, why scratch if you are not interested in re-entering.? Now reentries are not supposed to be automatic, by now I know nothing is, you have to be paying attention the whole damn morning (hence focus needs to be regarded as a prized asset and the Zen thread is a must read).

The comments regarding scratching and re-entries are in the PDF.

Today something came out in chat that was very interesting, if one is gonna scratch a trade that is just 1 point in the green why not "scratch one that is 20 points in the green, given that the crowd in command is not really that interested in keep fueling the trend, and one can even re-enter at a better price later. That is something I am gonna put in the back burner, is still the same tradeoff of scratching, but now is not actual losses vs paper losses but actual losses vs unearned profit. I know it sounds like "duh" is the same thing, but deep inside our brains I don't think it is or perhaps it is but I just don't know yet. Whenever I find out I will let you know.
 
niko said:
Today something came out in chat that was very interesting, if one is gonna scratch a trade that is just 1 point in the green why not "scratch one that is 20 points in the green, given that the crowd in command is not really that interested in keep fueling the trend, and one can even re-enter at a better price later.
More...

From my perspective this can probably be narrowed down to two main reasons:

1. ease of mind -- entering and re-entering ALL the time will be more exhausting than just re-entering when we're actually risking a loss
2. trade location -- perhaps not as valid, depending on the circumstances; but your first entry might have better odds due to where you actually are in the bigger picture
 
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