NQ Price Action Journal
- Thread starter niko
- Start date
Yes it is, is backtesting.
Here is Jan 8 2013
At the open we were above the TC from the hourly and were heading towards the top of the 7th (60 min chart)
The first thing that came to my mind was a REV as buyers failed to break the PMH at 20, but that never got triggered, so given that we were trending up, and this was just the second RET and it was the open I ventured to take the long.
This long was short lived and given that 21 was an important area I decided to close the whole position at the first sign of trouble and go for the opposite trade.
Buyers failed to find a following above 25 and sellers pushed hard, the angle of ascent in the parabolic move was broken so a short was called for. At first I thought about scratching , but then I decided to hold the short and give it some room given that I was at a R level and waited for a clear break of 50% from the top. It did not happen and the trade ended up working just fine. Any comments about this are welcome.
After prices fell, there was a point of confusion I have to deal with, my plan states that an entry that comes at prelim S or R has to be taken and SARed, but this one was above it not at it, so I just exited the 1st contract.
Then we hit S, buyers started to pour in stopping the decline, but the first RET was to feeble and the Stride was still holding so I decided to stay in the trade.
The stride was broken, and buyers kept supporting prices above 08 Here given the relevance of this rejection I decided to take the long. at first it looked promising, but in the first attempt to RET buyers dropped the ball and they couldnt even get the prices they were getting 5 minutes ago, it was the moment ot exit. But given the context it was the moment to SAR as well, at the time I thought about it but I did not, guess it was not planned that way so I did not do it. Now I know better, lets see what I do when it happens again.
Price kept on falling and I just watched until 11. In CSW I think I need to get my stuff straight when it comes to SAR. Lets see what can I come up with.
At the open we were above the TC from the hourly and were heading towards the top of the 7th (60 min chart)
The first thing that came to my mind was a REV as buyers failed to break the PMH at 20, but that never got triggered, so given that we were trending up, and this was just the second RET and it was the open I ventured to take the long.
This long was short lived and given that 21 was an important area I decided to close the whole position at the first sign of trouble and go for the opposite trade.
Buyers failed to find a following above 25 and sellers pushed hard, the angle of ascent in the parabolic move was broken so a short was called for. At first I thought about scratching , but then I decided to hold the short and give it some room given that I was at a R level and waited for a clear break of 50% from the top. It did not happen and the trade ended up working just fine. Any comments about this are welcome.
After prices fell, there was a point of confusion I have to deal with, my plan states that an entry that comes at prelim S or R has to be taken and SARed, but this one was above it not at it, so I just exited the 1st contract.
Then we hit S, buyers started to pour in stopping the decline, but the first RET was to feeble and the Stride was still holding so I decided to stay in the trade.
The stride was broken, and buyers kept supporting prices above 08 Here given the relevance of this rejection I decided to take the long. at first it looked promising, but in the first attempt to RET buyers dropped the ball and they couldnt even get the prices they were getting 5 minutes ago, it was the moment ot exit. But given the context it was the moment to SAR as well, at the time I thought about it but I did not, guess it was not planned that way so I did not do it. Now I know better, lets see what I do when it happens again.
Price kept on falling and I just watched until 11. In CSW I think I need to get my stuff straight when it comes to SAR. Lets see what can I come up with.
Regarding today action, I just observed.
At the open the stride was down, sellers aimed for a LL, but they failed misserably, as I pointed out it must have looked like a RET after a line break in the 30 sec, so It would have been a legitimate entry . Price rose and made a new RET, this was was unavoidable on the 1 min world. From there a parabolic move started. Then things got calmed, if one was long there was no reason to panic, perhaps close 1 contract and wait. If one wasnt long then one could be tempted of shorting the LH and the problem is that it would have been triggered and stopped, depending on the baggage that can impede the ability to SAR or not.
Well assuming one held part of the long the uptrend continued but the pace decreased forming a TC buyers tried to accelerate the pace but failed forming another micro TC, not that these TCs serve any purpose in RT trading, but I like to be able to see the angle of the stride. Is interesting to see that after exiting the TC sellers gave up at its midline and them buyers tried again but failed where expected.
THen prices fell rapidly and broke the stride, also came a RET, and prices kept on falling, just to find buyers at the 50% of the move from 9:50. Here buyers made a move and took prices ticks above LSH but were rejected at the 50% from the downmove.
After the failure, price fell and confirmed weakness. If one had not a reason to take a short before, this was one. Now, if one was holding a long, the 50% from the open should have been taken into account, and perhaps the short should have been skipped. Around 20 there was no compelling reason to SAR anyway.
Prices fell and went all the way to 50% at 9.50 were they found S. It is interesting to see that the angle of decent was reduced on the way and the stride changed. This is important, regarding the use of these lines as instruments for following S and D imbalances. Once can see for example that if one traces the channel in a different way ( The green one) it can bee seen how it follows price better. Even the break of the SL of this channel was the one that brought the followers. Perhaps it is just bunnies in the clouds. But that is an observation that puzzled me today.
At the open the stride was down, sellers aimed for a LL, but they failed misserably, as I pointed out it must have looked like a RET after a line break in the 30 sec, so It would have been a legitimate entry . Price rose and made a new RET, this was was unavoidable on the 1 min world. From there a parabolic move started. Then things got calmed, if one was long there was no reason to panic, perhaps close 1 contract and wait. If one wasnt long then one could be tempted of shorting the LH and the problem is that it would have been triggered and stopped, depending on the baggage that can impede the ability to SAR or not.
Well assuming one held part of the long the uptrend continued but the pace decreased forming a TC buyers tried to accelerate the pace but failed forming another micro TC, not that these TCs serve any purpose in RT trading, but I like to be able to see the angle of the stride. Is interesting to see that after exiting the TC sellers gave up at its midline and them buyers tried again but failed where expected.
THen prices fell rapidly and broke the stride, also came a RET, and prices kept on falling, just to find buyers at the 50% of the move from 9:50. Here buyers made a move and took prices ticks above LSH but were rejected at the 50% from the downmove.
After the failure, price fell and confirmed weakness. If one had not a reason to take a short before, this was one. Now, if one was holding a long, the 50% from the open should have been taken into account, and perhaps the short should have been skipped. Around 20 there was no compelling reason to SAR anyway.
Prices fell and went all the way to 50% at 9.50 were they found S. It is interesting to see that the angle of decent was reduced on the way and the stride changed. This is important, regarding the use of these lines as instruments for following S and D imbalances. Once can see for example that if one traces the channel in a different way ( The green one) it can bee seen how it follows price better. Even the break of the SL of this channel was the one that brought the followers. Perhaps it is just bunnies in the clouds. But that is an observation that puzzled me today.
Buyers failed to find a following above 25 and sellers pushed hard, the angle of ascent in the parabolic move was broken so a short was called for.
Niko: First my PA reading in hindsight to prepare my questions to you. I see a break above small trading range and then hesitation after break out, not a strong parabolic move in 1m for me. 60m, 2nd time break above the down channel up limit with a higher high; a potential TR top or potential up continuation. In 1m you shorted the bottom of small congestion area, maybe the test of break out point before moving up or continue to move down. It did move down and move down quite fast this time.
Now should be easy to understand that I am often puzzled on how to distinguish the imbalance of buying and selling near the bottom of the congestion area your first short entry. When you say a short was called for, you are pretty sure about imbalance of the demand and supply around there. May you share how you achieve this certainty if possible?
Around the exit of the first short, hesitation after parabolic down move in 1m, testing two times exactly the previous swing low after a new low ( could say BO below previous swing low with power since the new low is about 5ps lower) before your exit and the SL from the top still intact. Before the test, you wrote " i am at a position that i donot know what to do. " Then 8 minutes later you exited your short decisively after a new low. Would you please share how you could reach this certainty? Thank you very much.
Niko: First my PA reading in hindsight to prepare my questions to you. I see a break above small trading range and then hesitation after break out, not a strong parabolic move in 1m for me. 60m, 2nd time break above the down channel up limit with a higher high; a potential TR top or potential up continuation. In 1m you shorted the bottom of small congestion area, maybe the test of break out point before moving up or continue to move down. It did move down and move down quite fast this time.
Now should be easy to understand that I am often puzzled on how to distinguish the imbalance of buying and selling near the bottom of the congestion area your first short entry. When you say a short was called for, you are pretty sure about imbalance of the demand and supply around there. May you share how you achieve this certainty if possible?
Around the exit of the first short, hesitation after parabolic down move in 1m, testing two times exactly the previous swing low after a new low ( could say BO below previous swing low with power since the new low is about 5ps lower) before your exit and the SL from the top still intact. Before the test, you wrote " i am at a position that i donot know what to do. " Then 8 minutes later you exited your short decisively after a new low. Would you please share how you could reach this certainty? Thank you very much.
Hu, I just hope I am not a blind guy trying to guide another blind guy here 
.
1. At the time I did not see it as the bottom of a congestion, but as a line break after a RET. Now, given behavior after my entry I think that perhaps you are right about the congestion. The confidence in taking this trade was due to the fact that 22 (check the 60 min) was important from my prep work. So given the failure of buyers to get higher, my reading was that an entry should be tried to the downside. Perhaps I was wrong on timing and I should have scratched given the adverse incursion, and that is something I am working on at the moment. Or perhaps I should have recognize it as a TR and wait for a BO, my reading is that given the small range of this TR this is not the way to go.
2. My exits are automatic, the first one being a HL in this case. That is the first sign of buyers achieving something. As I said, 08 was my prelim level of S, so I wanted to see what buyers would do at that level, if they managed to provide S I would SAR if not I would hold. Now after 10:24 the SL was broken and buyers held 08, given that I was expecting something to happen at that level I SAR the trade. That did not happen at 09, as I was "not there yet".
.1. At the time I did not see it as the bottom of a congestion, but as a line break after a RET. Now, given behavior after my entry I think that perhaps you are right about the congestion. The confidence in taking this trade was due to the fact that 22 (check the 60 min) was important from my prep work. So given the failure of buyers to get higher, my reading was that an entry should be tried to the downside. Perhaps I was wrong on timing and I should have scratched given the adverse incursion, and that is something I am working on at the moment. Or perhaps I should have recognize it as a TR and wait for a BO, my reading is that given the small range of this TR this is not the way to go.
2. My exits are automatic, the first one being a HL in this case. That is the first sign of buyers achieving something. As I said, 08 was my prelim level of S, so I wanted to see what buyers would do at that level, if they managed to provide S I would SAR if not I would hold. Now after 10:24 the SL was broken and buyers held 08, given that I was expecting something to happen at that level I SAR the trade. That did not happen at 09, as I was "not there yet".
Niko:
To clarify: Your first short entry was under the congestion bottom. The exit bar of your long broke below the congestion bottom (4 similar bottoms) for the first time. The short entry 2nd time broke below the bottom after a key resistance held after being tested, having a higher probability for down move. Thank you.
To clarify: Your first short entry was under the congestion bottom. The exit bar of your long broke below the congestion bottom (4 similar bottoms) for the first time. The short entry 2nd time broke below the bottom after a key resistance held after being tested, having a higher probability for down move. Thank you.
Thanks for that Niko.
Interesting reading the back test. You are getting to a good level with this. I like your comment "If scratching is working, support below shouldn't be a reason to chicken out". Very true, I can see that in some of my own hesitation. Then a chop day comes to bite us.
Interesting reading the back test. You are getting to a good level with this. I like your comment "If scratching is working, support below shouldn't be a reason to chicken out". Very true, I can see that in some of my own hesitation. Then a chop day comes to bite us.
The thing with chop days it that it can only bite you twice, one to the upside and one to the downside. After that is just you wanting to be bitten
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