Quote from dbphoenix:
For example, beginning at 0800, there is no long trade as I define it. This is followed by a short op which would be stopped out almost immediately. There is no long op after that unless you define 0840 as a double bottom. There is then another short op which might yield two points by the open.
So you have two possible trades, one of which would be stopped out and one which would yield two points. Maybe. Compare and contrast that with the earlier trades I referred to.
Well, regarding the long at 0800 i agree that at the time my bias was short given the trend from 0710.
At the V rev at 0809 my thought was SC given the parabolic nature of the movement (now looks like a small swing but at the time looked parabolic.)
The clue to exit the short here was the strong upswing around 0815 that broke the 50% level above S at 05, but given that it was a V REV I would have not consider it for a long.
I would have consider a long at the next RET around 0822, but it turned into a REV and an opp to take the short side. LSHs held until sellers gave up above 06, no long there either as I knew I was in a TR and the potential would have been limited to 11.
From there no trades would have been valid, at the BO of the small hinge about 0947 that occurred after a series of HLs i was thinking about the possibilities of entry, but I still had R at 11 and that did not look good either.
Around 0953 there was another RET but given the nature of the parabolic move from the TR it looked pretty risky as it proved to be.
Regarding the strong RET at 1005 I don't see how to take that long with confidence so far.
Last think that i noticed was that buyers found R at 25 inside the 22 - 50 TR. and price is now reverting. direction, there is still upside risk as 21 remains a valid 50% level.
21 held and sellers failed to make a LL, now buyers are pushing in that looks like a continuation of the trend. If buyers can take 26 then we would be inside a TC.
