This is the Market Replay Commentary for July 2 2013.
At the open this was my view:
In the daily we had bounced from the DL in an uptrend and away fron R at 3000. Prices were already above the MP of the last downswing which is bullish.
In the hourly we were at S at 918 at the bottom of the TC, another bullish sign.
In the 5 min we had broken the SL from 7:00 and a REV was in the making.
1. Just before the open, sellers rejected buyers attempt to break above LSH, but then failed to break S at 18, there came the opening volume pushing prices to the upside in a V Reversal, that took prices outside of the TR.
2. The BO from the TR gave birth the the uptrend, at first buyers had to deal with trades from the 7:30 congestion and the MP of the Downswing from 6:00 which decreased momentum but did not stop buyers from pushing higher.
3. There were 2 more rets before buyers stalled at 38, tried to find a reason but could not find any, besides R at 32 that was the MP of the downswing from the top of the TC in the 60 min. Then came a strong rejection that broke the TL. This break was followed by a LH just above S at 32, sellers managed to keep pushing anf prices broke below 32 with ease.
4. At 27 the MP of the upswing from the open sellers found demand, it was so strong that there was another V reversal that broke the SL from 9:56.
5. After the failure in the REV to the downside I assumed we were entering congestion, that was confirmed by multiple test of the 38 area on the top and 32 area in the Bottom. More notes are available in the chart.
I liked from this exercise the fact that I now have more clarity about what to expect in prelim-S/R.
The fact that I am paying attention to failures has helped me a lot in RT to spot new possible opportunities to backtest after I have finish this new round of observation.
I am also watching at the tick chart (not posted) and finding interesting PA at the levels marked with blue circles. Nothing usable just yet but interesting nonetheless.
