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Porgie not only do you unduly flatter me - 100% confidence? No way. 35% would perhaps be more apt - for which many thanks, but also you do yourself a disservice. There is a rich seam of sound advice in many of your posts. Discretion can be a very dangerous tool in the wrong hands and the right to use it must I think be earned through experience.

There is of course a gulf between a newbie saying "I think the market will fall here therefore I will short it with no stop until I think it might go up again" and saying "Here be a well-tested signal confirmed in black and white by price action, but I have decided to reduce size on this occasion because my intuition, which has witnessed 50,000 price bars and possibly assimilated some repetitive behaviour at the subconscious level, is screaming Nooo I've seen this before and it's probably a trap!" But you knew that. I am all for simplicity in method and try to trade like a machine most of the time. It's so much easier on the psyche.

I wish you a good weekend sir.

PS Noise? Don't think so. If it sounds like noise they're not listening properly. :)

Where is our convivial host today? I was going to suggest that I might have a 1-lot experimental crack at NQ next week and post the results here, but that may not be welcome either to him or indeed my account size.
 
I must say NQ has sported a beguiling channel over the last two sessions. She looks cleaner than YM (partly due to the tick size I suspect) with better breakouts and more regular geometry. Perhaps I may be converted sooner than I thought.
 

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frugi,

I am vacationing for a week or so beginning tomorrow so i will see u later......thanks for the encouragement........porgie
 
Frugi, it also has channelled quite reliably intraday, often initiating on H&S or double tops/bottoms. The double top at 1:39 ET was worth a nice piece of change. Thank you for participating, but would you please consider two requests for your attachments? ET allows 120K, so if would compress yours just below that we could see them better. Also, the black background makes it difficult to see what you mean. Do you REALLY chart that way? My in-house chartist uses a white background, perhaps because he is white. I have a trading team of twenty folks here in bed with me (feeling decadent today), so anything you want to know about NQ, ask away. Oh, and I would be pleased to learn from you if you decide to demo trading NQ for us. But you have to match the exquisite timing of my most recent trade today, attached (times Pacific).

P.S. If you can induce Porky to stay away, I will tell you the secret of the exit timing on that trade. I have already given it away here many times, but nobody ever believes it, hahaha! One of the benefits of being ET's court jester.
 

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Quote from Duref Mudgins:

Frugi, how to reply to such an erudite post? I shall not tarnish it with my gloss! But I must say that one of my multiple personality patients, Joe Doaks, once ran an exhaustive backtest of relaxation from the NQ VWAP and concluded that there is nothing there. I believe that poor deluded Enqueue was neveer informed of that, because some years back he advocated Vee Wop channels in an attempt to become the new Jack. As to your linking to a T2W post, I can only remind our gentle readers that the frightful Brain Drain of the late lamented '50's correlated strongly with a spike in arrests for homosexual activity in the destination country. T2W is where we send our execrable exiles, in a reverse transportation act. Cherio, and brilliant!
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Duref thank you for your compliments regarding the ramblings of my ravaged mind and also for informing me of Joe Doaks' disparaging VWAP studies. I suspect that in principle he is correct, although not being a fan of mechanical backtests myself I suspect he may have sought fixed levels for entry and exit that work over a range of market moods? This type of signal is always elusive as we know.

The reversals at 'peak' divergence I mentioned are useful to me only for scalps of 10-25 points on the YM, certainly nothing to write home about, though occasionally a brave runner yields sweeter fruit. I also use them to exit open trades or at least tighten stops right up. Kind of a heads up like a volume climax where an exchange between strong and weak hands is suspected. As ever the divergences are zones for real-time consideration not fixed triggers. Very much a work in progress and given my lack of realtime VWAP data I have not backtested, even simply with my eyes, through more volatile periods. One day soon I suspect a divergence of twice the size will be more the ticket.

There are a handful of traders across the pond who use something similar to VWAP channels in order to scan a ream of and then pair trade suitable Nasdaq stocks and I gather that they meet with much success in oscillating markets, but I would certainly be wary of using them for pure directional trades. After all, they have a nasty habit of moving against one if a (surprise) trend develops.

Talking tangentially of reverse exiles I am glad to see that hardyards who sadly departed from our shores some months ago has made a welcome reappearance over here. He has a delightful prose style and much to offer the eager index futures trader.
 
Nice trade Duref - I had my finger on the trigger around there also, but passed - I have noticed some sporadic high volume up bars today, which has made some sell setups fail - seems to be some short covering going on, but not concerted enough to make the market rally.

I took a short earlier (1:12) which I aborted within five minutes for a 1.75 pt loss because of two such bars, and it was a good thing - but didn't have the confidence to reverse, unfortunately.

(Yeah yeah - so much for trading swings off the daily chart LOL - I think I need to work my way up to that, for the sake of my nerves.)
 
ET allows 120K, so if would compress yours just below that we could see them better. Also, the black background makes it difficult to see what you mean. Do you REALLY chart that way?
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Duref sorry if my chart was unclear. Perhaps your browser is automatically resizing my attachment as it is splendidly clear my end? It should fill a 19" monitor. If not I will try another format next time.

I have used an off-white background for a long time and switched to black recently as I find it easier on my eyes. However I am very happy to reverse the colours if that would suit.

Congratulations on that good trade by the way. I will struggle to match it and I suspect any learning that transpires will be to my benefit not yours. :)

It is evening here so I must try and interest my stomach in some provender. But may return later with a handful of irksome questions.

PS Which time zone do you inhabit? It doesn't look like EST?
 
Frugi, Joe is highly opinionated, obnoxiously so, so I will save you the grief and give you the 30 second summary. Joe has NEVER tested ANY envelope system of ANY kind which worked. As he is wont to say, "The problem with volatility is that it's volatile." That is why I am very sceptical (in the Boyle sense) of Steve46's system. I have much respect for Steve, but I can't even get Joe to think about testing it. He just says (translated into French for ET propriety) "Il encule des mouches!".

P.S. Texas, CST
 
Scott, you know me well enough by now to know that I only showed you my best trade of the day. I had my share of small gains and fortunately smaller losses. If I were you I would cut and run when you're down three ticks. I was having a hard time deciding which time frame's TA to beleve in.
 
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