NQ: Follow the trend.

Out of curiosity I took your 30 SMA and applied it to several time frames of the QQQQ. What struck me was its accuracy in the daily chart. If you are looking to join the long-term trends, as you say, this might be interesting for this particular index. You exploit the monster moves spanning several weeks with very little effort.

This was always the case dating as far back as 2000 (I don't have older data with this software). There is only one drawback: you can get whipsawed heavily during consolidation periods. So your task will be to interpret moving average breakouts accurately and squeeze everything out of subsequent trends to compensate the whipsaws.
 

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Quote from powerfade:

Am I reading this right?
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Which part?

The trend part is true. If I can get a few good trends a year I'll do all right.

The chart part is misleading. I use Quotetracker with an IB feed and for intraday it only goes backfills 10 days. I can go back much longer with daily charts and have access to other programs that go back much further.
 
Quote from Palatine:

Out of curiosity I took your 30 SMA and applied it to several time frames of the QQQQ. What struck me was its accuracy in the daily chart.
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I had noticed that myself and thought I'd try it with 30 minutes. Hence the Journal.

It's always different when you put cash on the line. :)
 
Reviewing my trades to date my biggest loss occurred mid Feb when I over-rode the system and took a stop and reverse trade down. Instead of taking a 17 point loss I ended up with a 67 point loss.

Lesson learned. The first loss is the smallest. Let the system do it’s thing.
 
Quote from Palatine:

Out of curiosity I took your 30 SMA and applied it to several time frames of the QQQQ.
More...

Actually on the daily chart the 16 SMA was the best keeping you on the right side of the trend.
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Actually on the daily chart the 16 SMA was the best keeping you on the right side of the trend.
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Quite true. For the very long term trends, the 150 SMA is accurate, as well. It is basically the weekly 30 SMA, converted to the daily time frame (30 x 5 weekdays). Attached are all discussed moving averages to give an impression.
 

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