Jethro... thanks for checking up on me.
I have been trading each morning still. Things have been slow as I work on being more disciplined.
I instituted some new rules for myself.
1. Never ever go against the higher time frame trend (defined by 2 swings high/low or a major trend shift with a topping/bottom pattern and 1 swing high/low).
2. Always have at least 4 confirming
factors to take a position. These factors include fib levels, trendlines, pitchfork lines, reversal bars, pivot highs/lows, volume patterns, chart pattern as context, etc.
3. Never take positions around key points on the higher time frame chart without confirmation from the lower.
It's an ongoing process for me as I become more confident in what works and what doesn't.
I record nearly all of my setups and trading days as well with commentary.
Perhaps I'll start posting this for advice.
Here goes...
http://img162.imageshack.us/my.php?image=ndxts0.jpg
This is how I see the nasdaq 100. Elliot wave, trendlines, and median lines, and fib levels have been an enormous help in me getting the feel of the overall market and have *especially* been responsive recently as seen in the chart.
My project over the weekend is to mark the indicies up to see how these tools and others have been influencing the indicies over the past few years.
Although I have not confirmed this, my eye tells me that the indicies lend themselves VERY well to technical analysis. Especially longer term...
http://img162.imageshack.us/my.php?image=ndxts0.jpg
This image, the buy is represented by the blue arrow and my stop by the pink. I saw lots of confirming factors, but the anchor chart was overwhelmingly bearish. In fact, I've noticed this has happened so many times with me that I decided to institute the rule I stated above.
http://img85.imageshack.us/my.php?image=6factorsfailureagainstatg1.jpg
This is the same chart except the other potential buy area I was looking at was at 13:25. Here we had a total of 6 confirming factors and the setup still failed. This is just more proof that for countertrend, everything must really come together.
This is a potential short I saw with the trend that I did not take during the trading day (near the black line). The reasons (5) for the short are listed
http://img120.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fibsvolumetrendlinerevehq2.jpg
This is a short on my anchor chart that I did not take because I do not trade off of the anchor, but it still represented a nice trade (4 confirming factors) that I can potentially do in the future when my stops can be bigger.
http://img186.imageshack.us/my.php?image=pivotmedianlinevolfib11yj7.jpg
The next chart the potential short that I didn't take has its entry around 13:50. Notice the 4 confirming factors. All of the setups presented so far have been at least 2:1 r/w which is a criteria I like to have on all my trades.
http://img293.imageshack.us/my.php?image=pivotmedianlinevol2fibseu6.jpg
This chart is my anchor chart from the 15th and shows another good potential short, but I cannot take it because of the amount i'm willing to risk and the fact that I trade off of a smaller time frame. Regardless, I like keeping all potential setups to reinforce good habits and to get at least some statistical data on the reliability of the factors that go into each trade.
http://img148.imageshack.us/my.php?image=pivotmedianlinevol2fibspi9.jpg
The previous chart points to a setup that I didn't take because the retracement levels for fibs only included 38.2 and 23.6 - two levels that through my initial testing have come out to be pretty useless without more confirming factors. The fact that it worked, I believe is because it was with the trend and, an exception to the rule. Not the general consensus. But, I must keep track of every setup for accurate record keeping...
http://img240.imageshack.us/my.php?image=pivotmedianlinevolfibfamr8.jpg
This chart of the 14th shows a setup near 11:10 that failed completely that normally would be a perfectly valid setup in my opinion. They all can't be winners, though.
http://img213.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fibsvolpivotsuccesswtrein8.jpg
Here we see how powerful going with the trend is. Only 3 confluences at 14:00 ish (not including the reversal bar which puts me at unfavorable r/w).
http://img301.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fibsvoltrendlinesuccessug6.jpg
Again we see the same thing here at 13:50. It's a shame I wasn't taking these setups, but I am not going to overstate my skill in trading. I need to see things so many times and have data on those things so that I have complete confidence. Until I do that, I won't be able to trade properly.
http://img186.imageshack.us/my.php?image=failurefibpitchforkpivolt7.jpg
This chart shows a potential short setup failing at 15:31 because zooming out we were forming a double bottom. Also, volume on the 5 minute pattern was clearly indicating accumulation.
http://img99.imageshack.us/my.php?image=2trendlinesmedianlinevoku3.jpg
The previous chart is a setup I was looking at today but did not take it. It started out with 4 confirming factors and ended up giving 6. I was left in the dust. Oh well, the first step to gaining confidence is to see a setup pass me by 1000 times and then taking it the 1001th time.
http://img146.imageshack.us/my.php?image=downtrendlinebreakrevcaob4.jpg
The previous chart speaks a lot and I should have listened. The long at the arrow had many reasons to go wrong. And of course, it did. I was "hoping" that I could get my first profit of the day and instead I got a loss.
http://img211.imageshack.us/my.php?image=2tlsvolfibpivot11608zg0.jpg
The setup above worked beautifully because of confluence of 5 different things. I took the bar on the pullback to the reversal bar which meant 6 confirming factors, but 5 was plenty if i was quicker on the draw.
http://img155.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fibpivotmediandragonfaixc4.jpg
I thought the previous setup was sure to work because of the confluence of a dragon (TL break and double bottom) but because we made a lower low on the anchor (my only explanation) we failed to follow through initially after the pullback, though the pattern did work a bit later.
That's it for now.
