NQ 13800

Yes Salty, I do see things differently. Your narrative is also a widely used one. And a crowded trade.

I think we have seen, or will see yields peak this week. Inflation isn’t. Gold and bonds to rally.

oil probably too. That’s a bit of a catch-up trade. I’m side eying it though.

but I try not to attach to any narrative. They limit your line of sight. I’m just as happy for inflation to exist as not. Bitcoin could go to zero or a billion. I don’t care. And Whatever story a person comes up for it happening? Doesn’t matter to me. We all need bedtime stories.
 
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Understood CopperOverGold, thanks. I hear you that "inflation is coming" is a crowded trade, i.e. some of it may already be priced in, although I'm not so sure chronic, or at least very high, sustained inflation can ever really be priced in, the dollars are printed in future years so the inflation exists in future years, people being on one side of the inflation trade today I think can only do so much to price into effect future inflation.

We shall see!

Thanks!!!
 
Saltynuts said:
Understood CopperOverGold, thanks. I hear you that "inflation is coming" is a crowded trade, i.e. some of it may already be priced in, although I'm not so sure chronic, or at least very high, sustained inflation can ever really be priced in, the dollars are printed in future years so the inflation exists in future years, people being on one side of the inflation trade today I think can only do so much to price into effect future inflation.

We shall see!

Thanks!!!
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If TIP gets below 127, I think your inflation trade is in the process of blowing. A level to watch for if you're keen on it. I'm increasingly of the perspective that the inflation we "saw" is now in the rear-view.
 
Thanks CopperOverGold. To clarify, I think you are saying TIP going below 127 would be a technical indicator that inflation is not happening, at least not to the extent feared? Very keen on it ha!

Thanks!
 
Saltynuts said:
Thanks CopperOverGold. To clarify, I think you are saying TIP going below 127 would be a technical indicator that inflation is not happening, at least not to the extent feared? Very keen on it ha!

Thanks!
More...
I think above 127, you're fine. ish. Below? people are getting burned. More below? Really burned.
 
So when you say fine above 127, below people getting burned below this, you mean people in the TIPS trade itself? Or are you meaning if it goes below 127 it probably signifies that inflation is not going to be as bad as people were positioned for, and thus those that placed their bets based on high inflation will get burned?
 
I mean your inflation thesis is about to unwind below ~127. How quickly, I don't know. The longer it's below the worse for base metals, and the ags. Below 127, and the fed is right - transitory. Above, you're correct. float away. Simple, right? Just because you can't conceive of something, doesn't make it unlikely. There's lots of stuff, about lots of stuff that we don't know. Macroeconomics is always explained after the fact. Price will never lie to you.
 
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