Quote from IluvVol:
I beg to differ. Inflation will run higher no question. Everyone knows that, the Fed, too. But thats not to worry. We can live with elevated inflation, look at inflation historically and thats exactly what the Fed does. It balances pros and cons. Do we want to slide into a global recession but can be proud we watched inflation or do we cut rates now and lower the risk of a huge slight somewhat. Thats the question.
By the way, tight credit is not something I pulled out of my arse. I work as bank trader and believe me tight credit is a serious problem to the economy. Companies finance themselves short term with commercial paper and other short term securities in the rates market, nowhere else. Without this source companies are dead. There was a huge fund SIV fund set up for this very purpose. So, I suggest we put the rethoric aside and look at the facts.
Agree. Tight credit big problem for economy. After the dot-com-bubble, German banks boosted "credit risk management procedures". Consequence : German small and medium companies suffered from credit crunch. End of the story : recession.