Snapped my 11 games winning streak as the 2PM energy news made me swallow my first loss in more than two weeks. 25500 shares on 9 of 18 shooting, +465 before commissions, -244 after, 2 bullets.
It was a total shutdown of a day as I could not put together that one big winner out of 18 stocks I traded today. Last Wed, there was a gift energy run and I bought just 300 shares of BHI and made $300, and Mrs. F scored huge with serious size. Today, we went through the exact routine, took a walk to Chinatown, ate the same $3.50 a bowl wonton noodle soup, came back exact same time, hoped for the exact same thing. It wasn't pretty, but it is awesome to have a friend work you go eat together and you get smoked together, very good psychological support after a down day (she still pulled the game out regardless, one of the most consistent players).
Pre-Market: Very light, nothing really caught my eyes
9:30: Saw a huge offer on EPG, and given that I had no idea whether the news at 2PM will be good, and I wanted at least one energy bullet just in case it is downward momentum, and I sold some at 48.1, covered for a 20 cents profit as the index squeezed and he really squeezed and kicked a lot as the sellers eventually overpowered buyers. I churned a lot of him today, but the worst damage came in afternoon. Took SGY on OSX strength, scored half a point on 600 shares for my best trade of the day. Tried NOI and got a dime. Energy tends to be very choppy on Wed's because of the 2PM inventory news, somewhat similar to the broad market on FOMC day's, and I tried very hard to go long in NE but out for flat as the sector eventually came in. Futures ripped hard, I took MMM and when he printed 109.7 I really thought I was golden for a beautiful breakout, but futures came right back in and I was shaken out at 109.40 for a 30 cents loss, happened to be the morning low and he ran hard after that, that was arguably the biggest shot I missed today.
10:00: Tried hard to go long, but every time I thought the futures would go up it would come back down, had PPG, GE, HON, LXK, FD, ROH at various points, broke even on those trades but churned away a lot of commissions. Market felt strong, but the double top pattern completed and closed down on me and I got out of all of my longs. Energy started to go down and I bulleted EOG, what a strong stock, needless to say I tried too many times to short him today, bad idea, biggest loser of the day. A look at my P&L I was down $50, no big deal but psychologically it made a difference going into the energy news.
1:28: Came back from lunch with Mrs. F and had a great time, it is funny how when I go out with the light of my life I always try to pick the most impressive restaurants, but I enjoy those little places just as much, the place we went to, Wonton Garden was a very small, very cheap, very warm, almost family oriented spot. We had the same thing last week and we thought it will help to "align the planets" in our favor. The problem was, almost immediately I noticed that the energy rallied before the announcement, and I thought they would throw a curve ball with a classic sell-on-the-news, nevertheless, EPG printed 100K at 44.38 and showed up with a BID, I thought the seller was done as he bounced off yesterday's low, index going up and still 30 minutes left before the announcement, I like trades like that, I took 600 market and he filled me at 44.50, he printed some massive size at 44.50 and my heart went cold I realized he will not tick above that, he did tick above .50 for a few prints to blow stops, and all that time he was actually getting short, bad read, quickly out for a dime loss fortunately there were some bag holders left in the stock. Energy started to tick down, I bulleted just 400 shares of EOG and decided to hold it through the announcement, too confident there. Took LM as XBD lagger long and got 30 cents. BTK went up and futures was hitting new high's, took DNA at 54 after some size prints and pared out most of my shares for a 15 cents profit but still held 200 as I didn't believe he had enough gas with futures started going down.
2:00: I was in the money by 10 cents or so on EOG and energy continued to tick down, I really thought it was the insiders selling because they already knew the result (last week, it squeezed before going up for good) I sold a little more and I saw a big green bar on SLB (OSX leader), I covered market immediately for a quarter loss on EOG. Market started to go down hard, while energy indexes are independent of futures, when everything else is falling, I shouldn't have been so aggressive on the longs. I took 700 shares a piece HP, SGY, EPG, EOG, and I saw some other traders jumping in after I did, taking the long side, even when stuff were ticking up a little I had this instinct that I was already wrong, that I took too much, because many many times, when the inventory news is insignificant, you get a pop, then the energy stocks give back all of their gains almost right away and you get killed by the spreads. I immediately sold half of everything I had for tiny losses, but then SLB came in hard and I was late to get out of the other half, by then what I had left in DNA already went against me by almost half a point because it was a 200 share position and I couldn't get to it with all the energy stuff I had. I did excellent damage control, as after I got out of 3000 share's worth of energy I had long I was down just $600. Unlike the FOMC meeting, based on my experience, many many times, there is no third leg for energy stocks on this news announcement, the first move is often 90% of the gains, followed by a big pullback, a very small pop then chop and churn rest of the day, this is especially true on afternoon's as I have rarely if ever seen any serious energy move after 3PM after oil price stops ticking at commodities trading.
2:40: Composure is everything, it is very important to take a few small scalps when you are down $600, as just a few more bad trades on size will put you at that dreaded $1000 deficit mark and on a day like today I don't think I could have came back from that. I tried to short EOG/EPG again and I covered immediately at market because I realized that I was desperate and I needed to stop the bleed. Took a small scalp in TYC and a small scalp in GE, and all of a sudden, SLB hit a new high, and I saw all energy stocks ticking up again, took HP at 29.10 for a very nice 50 cents move, and SGY at 37.75 for 30 cents, two trades with sufficent size and instantly I was able to cut my deficit down to just $200. Had those two trades went the other way even a little, I could have been blown out. Yes, oils made a huge leg after I got out, but it was part of my defense when my stocks weren't working, I have no complaints there even when I got out the second half of my positions near the bottom (except EPG which tanked hard, that seller crammed him today), the only complaint was that I took way too much in the first place.
3:08: Took BR at 36.3 on a breakout, thought XNG may have another leg but as I said before, out of my entire career at Worldco I don't think I have seen a serious into the close move for energy, out for flat as I recognized that it won't happen. Thought futures will do a double bottom and took TYC for a 15 cents scalp and IBM for a 30 cents scalp, I was down just $50 on the day but the double bottom didn't happen as I exited into strength.
3:30: Ahhh, unneccessary damage, I tried way too hard to save my streak and I basically gave $200 to the market for nothing. I somehow hoped for a rally and bought GE/MMM even when I thought the futures made a lower high and looked very vulnerable, got out immediately. Why didn't I go short instead, I guess I am spoiled with bullets and rarely if ever does natural's anymore . . .
Tommorrow will be very important, even with this loss I am still up $1750 for the week, my best week last three months was a $2500 week I had in October, I must win tommorrow's game to keep the momentum flowing, and I have a real chance to top it here.