My best FOMC game to date in term of raw execution. While my size was almost non-existent and I got out of two key positions too early, I am very pleased about the way I literally nailed the market at the bottom and pared out my final shares at the top. Very very good day for sure as it was a serious confidence builder, I am up 2K for the week and with 3 games left this may be the breakout week I have been looking for.
+1612 before commissions, +1131 after, 15000 shares on 8 of 13 shooting, 2 bullets. The news trader with his own trading desk hit a home run today as IVX was halted around 12:30-1:00 with bad news, he caught it on Bloomberg and he was able to pass bullets to all of his traders (MYL, WPI, WAT were related stocks they bulleted), very sweet trades, and an incredible example of a fine trading desk manager who cares about his traders.
Pre-Market: Little news, BJS beat earnings but a couple of other energy companies missed.
9:30: APC had a huge offer and it was tanking hard, bulleted EPG at 48.25, best trade of the day as I scored 50 cents plus a few extra scalps. I wanted to trade financials today but BKX/XBD was showing divergence, I had the choice of long banks or short brokers, and I put up BSC bullet and sold just a couple of hundreds shares, he squeezed and I covered immediately knowing there is a fundamental reason for the financials to rally today. Churned away some more BSC and AGE for commissions as I tried to pick the XBD bottom, finally found XBD bottom with GS and MER but MER did a lot of kicking and shaking and I could not make anything more than a tiny scalp off him. GS I did scalped some more but nothing significant.
10:30: I was up just $200 and I made a serious BID for what I thought could have been a breakout, had TYC, GS, MER, LOW, KSS, needless to say the breakout failed and I broke even on the trades but lost $50 or so in commissions.
2:00: Up just $160, with 2 bullets for potential shorts, I started watching the futures and a few select stocks. The market already sold-off substantially, and buy on the rumor, sell on the news should be changed to sell on the rumor, buy on the news. I re-read my journal from last FOMC, the key is to scalp the first leg, avoid the second leg, and go size on the third leg. Took a deep breath, it is show time, for the love of my heart.
2:18: Fed. rat cut announcement came out a few minutes later than usual and I could hear my heart racing against the clock. Saw a big offer on BSC driving the stock down and as soon as I heard .50 on CNBC and the offer was getting hit I took just 300 as a warm-up trade, the first leg will not stick and I am not going to use high quality ammo, but I want to burst fire some small shots to keep my mind sharp, took 40 cents there and out quickly.
2:35: The hardest leg, as I knew it will be a big pullback, the question is how much. Took a little PX on CEX strength and out for flat. Took some PPG and out for a dime loss. Futures pulling back a little and I almost went long again, but I am not seeing strength on big caps and I sold a little EPG with my bullet, immediately I realized that was my mistake from last FOMC game when I churned and flipped myself to death on second leg. Skip this leg, wait for the third leg, that is the key.
2:55: Took a little BSC and TYC, for small scalps, futures was at a critical point, and I wasn't sure whether it was the end of the second leg. Perhaps even more importantly, I didn't know whether the market will do it today, rally into the close.
3:00: Took some LM at 43.50, out for flat as futures seemed to have gave up, but all of a sudden I saw another uptick, then another, and TYC started to hit a huge offer at 51.60 there, I almost bought 1500 there but I wasn't daring, took 600 instead because the morning was so tough and choppy. Futures started really going up, took GS on a pullback at 84.70, missed a key fill at 84.71 to double my position, and I had just 300 shares and watched it go up to 85.20. I sold my small potato position in disgust, and watched it go up 1.25 point from there . . . Had I had a more substantial position, I would have definitely held half. TYC I got for a 30 cents move. I wasn't fully sure whether the third leg will break the intraday high for good . . . I almost gave-up but I realized at the last FOMC game, market rallied at 3:15, and it still had a chance today.
3:15: When I saw financials making new high's, I knew it was good, I wish I went heavier but I took 500-700 share positions in NSM (40 cents), LM (40 cents), PX (quarter), and TOL (quarter), not as exciting as say, the technology stocks, but I knew I was chasing laggers and I didn't want high beta stocks. By 3:45, I pared out my last share of the day, as I want no part of profit taking dips . . .
The two key flaws in my game was that I get out of strongest stocks too early and I should most definitely do more size, I caught both TYC and GS at their bottom of the second leg on futures, and I got out of both near resistance point (which could have been a breakout), just a little more patience would have gone a long way especially on a day like this when I had fundamental reasons to be bullish on financials. If I can't hold 200 shares of GS for a point how can I ever hold 2000 for a point? It was as smooth as you can possibly ask for.
Today's win extended my winning streak to 11 straight games, I am still riding the momentum that ended last pay period, and I want to do everything I can to keep the edge. I need to start more positions with 1000 shares, I have been on a hot streak and I really need a breakout here to reach the next plateau in skill level.