November 2003

I would like to share post on euro of my fellow analyst and my reply to him on other forum:

Originally posted by eternalfuture
Rezo and all,

Well, as expected, not much fight given by 1.1545-1.1550 yesterday.

Today, I don't think it won't be much of a different story than yesterday.

Downward pressure still there, but near-term bounce still likely. I don't think it will bounce far, though. On a daily closing basis, 1.1440 provide temporary support for now, although it was pierced on the hourly chart yesterday.

There is 'window' support at 1.1382, which would also offer some support for euro.

Rezo, maybe the recent double top at 1.1860 & 1.1857 isn't the similar pattern like the one that we have at 1.1932/1.1931. Maybe this current drop is equivalent to the move 'BETWEEN' the 1.1932 & 1.1931 tops.

If you look at the chart, after the top at 1.1932, euro was down to 1.1625. And before that 1.1932, there was also a 'window' at 1.1589 (16th May 2003).

What I'm trying to say is that current fall was equivalent to the move between 1.1932 and 1.1625 rather than 1.1931 to 1.1110 (16th July 2003).

If this is the case, then a move back to 1.1800 plus is still very possible, but it would be important that the 1.1382 window still intact to be there again.

Should the euro close at least twice below 1.1382 on daily closing basis, then the euro may have a hard time visiting 1.1800 again; instead, it would crash as low as 1.1020 (as I have pointed out earlier).

Sorry for long post. I would've loved to attach the chart, but got a problem with the PC.

Thanks, and good luck!
More...

Reply:

Originally posted by rezo_s
E.Future, I will attach the chart for you my friend. But I have to dissagree. If we look at the chart, you are suggestinh we are at similar pattern as marked with 1 and 2 on chart. But take a look at the red lined - and we see we are not exactly in that 1, 2 points anymore, but more likely moving lower.
Another thing to pay attention to is that the low was exactly the 61 point. This may trigger attempt to retest the 1.18 for a break upside, but unfortunatly technical picture doesnt support that scenario. At least not yet. Things may change, but for now this is the situation.
Current situation is very much similar with the previous push to 1.19. Same situation with the gaps... I remember this gap at 1.1380 - 1.1440 area (market with cycles on chart). I was holding a long position over the weekend at that moment from 1.1173 with tp order at 1.1405, and even though first ticks were around 1.1440, I was closed at my order :)...
Anyways, you are right about the gap area - it should be filled in order to proceed to your procpected 1.1020 area. I prefer setting tp order aomewhere around 1.11 - 1.12 - the 38 fibo area... to tell the exact level : 1.1185 that is where I will set up my t.p once/if I enter short...


Ok, good Luck everyone, will update a bit later.
More...
 

Attachments

:) Hi Rezo,
How are you? I pulled my money out of forex. Too wild for me. I will be trading stock options now. Greater number of instruments to trade in the stock market, plus I have better data for my cycle analysis (=more data). I may in the future post my trades on the Journal forum. I will be trading less frequently, maybe 2 to 5 trades a month, not like forex, 2 to 5 times a day. Hope November is better for you.:)
 
Hi Russ,

what can I say - Good Luck whatever you do, and dont forget to visit us - the forex friends from time to time :)

All the best,

Rezo
 
Hi Everybody,

Been away from here for a while.
Here is my reco: sell GBPUSD - look at the trend line and try to short if it gets near it with 50 pips stop. I already shorted, but you may get even better level. The target is 1.6385. Very nice r:r ratio there. Early next week week we may get that target. If this trade gets stopped, it may still be a good trade to reenter later. Canadian is also looking good - I took long couple days ago and am still keeping it, but this is not a reco, just sharing; but if you are in simiolar trade or looking to enter, my initial target for USDCAD is 1.3620. Reco is to try long one of the best performing out there - USDCHF. If I get to take a good position, I will make a reco for this one.

Good Luck Everyone,

Rezo
 

Attachments

btw, the reason for still to try to take long on USD/canadian is that we broke back the 1.3350 earlier low of this year. We broke the low doew, and now we are back in upside move above that level. So I think it is still good to buy at good entry.
 

Attachments

ok, now I have to take back what I said about the USDCAD, bcose we suddenly fell below 1.3350... this is a surprising move. Yes there was a double top on 240 mins...
 
Sunday, November 09, 2003

Hi Everyone,

EURUSD:
I don't think there is something to worry about because of the Friday push back higher above 1.15. Market was vary oversold and needed this correction very much. This is very healthy for further move down, and therefore for now I am still on the sell side. This view may change if the upside move resumes, but for now this is a Friday position closing result.

USDJPY:
Flat for now.

GBPUSD:
Same here: flat as of week closing. Will need to see how things go in order to decide.


USDCHF:
We bounced back for 1.3780 area - the 61 retracement from the recent move down, but just as on euro, it doesn't look like anything more than a result of position closing after a very overbought situation. Long position still considered here in the beginning of market opening. Unless we see continuing USD weakening of course.

EURGBP : I think this week may be a good time to reenter the shorts form couple weeks ago. We saw a retracement up to 6900 level and a good bounce back. Will be looking to short with same initial target as back then : 6770


EURJPY:
Long time am waiting for a break here. In my opinion it will be break south. I will be entering on a break of this current serious support we are now at. There is never a definite level, and that is why we talk about areas, but this time this is a wide area. Its starting at spike to 125.00 and ending with current 126.00 level. I am going to put a sell order at 124.80 with 60 pip stop and initial target of 121.50.


AUDUSD:
Flat for now.


USDCAD:
Bearish candle on weekly charts, but little mixed picture. After correction, move north may resume. For now I am flat.


This is it for now.
I wish you all to have a great trading week,
Kindest Regards,
Rezo Shmertz
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top